On a multiple endpoints testing problem

In a clinical trial comparing drug with placebo, where there are multiple primary endpoints, we consider testing problems where an efficacious drug effect can be claimed only if statistical significance is demonstrated at the nominal level for all endpoints. Under the assumption that the data are multivariate normal, the multiple endpoint-testing problem is formulated. The usual testing procedure involves testing each endpoint separately at the same significance level using two-sample t-tests, and claiming drug efficacy only if each t-statistic is significant. In this paper we investigate properties of this procedure. We show that it is identical to both an intersection union test and the likelihood ratio test. A simple expression for the p-value is given. The level and power function are studied; it is shown that the test may be conservative and that it is biased. Computable bounds for the power function are established.     

Demographic change, macroeconomic conditions, and the murder rate: The case of the United States, 1934–2006

Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age–crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates—significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s.     

Birth order effects on young students’ academic achievement

We examine birth order effects on academic achievement for ten-year-old students using data for the entire population of fifth graders in Norway 2007/2008. The analysis thus adds to a thin empirical literature focusing on birth order effects among young children. We find that being firstborn confers a significant advantage in families with two, three and four children. The analysis makes two other contributions. First, we provide evidence that unless mother's age at childbirth is included among the control variables, only small and imprecise birth order effects are revealed in families with low socioeconomic status. Second, we provide some evidence that the birth order effects differ across families with highly educated and less educated mothers, which lend support to the resource dilution model over the confluence model.     

Are people in the South less intelligent than in the North? IQ and the North–South disparity in Italy

Socioeconomic disparity between North and South Italy has been recently explained by Lynn (2010) as the result of a lower intelligence quotient (IQ) of the Southern population. The present article discusses the procedure followed by Lynn, supplementing his data with new information on school assessments and per head regional income. Genetic North–South differences are then discussed on the basis of the most recent literature on the subject. The results do not confirm the suggested IQ-economy causal link.     

Sanctioning as a social norm: Expectations of non-strategic sanctioning in a public goods game experiment

Sanctioning increases cooperation in public goods games, but not indiscriminately under all conditions and in all societies, and the mechanisms by which sanctioning exercises its impact on behavior are yet to be studied in detail. We show experimentally that in the presence of sanctioning, our experimental subjects adjust their behavior in order to avoid being a free rider. They do this not only in the STANDARD sanctions treatment, where they directly experience any sanctions assigned to them, but also in our main treatment, the SECRET sanctions treatment, where no information on sanctions received is available until the end of the experiment. We observe no such free riding avoidance in the treatment without sanctioning. The mere knowledge that sanctions might be assigned increases cooperation among the members of our subject pool; subjects expect that non-strategic sanctioning occurs against the free riders. Moreover, these expectations are correct as we observe a similar pattern and extent of sanctioning in both treatments. We propose that sanctioning in itself is a social norm and may be culturally dependent, as suggested in the literature.     

An exploratory analysis of composite choices: Weighing rationality versus irrationality

Humans are engineered neurologically to make rational and irrational choices. This paper introduces a new paradigm for decision making – a composite choice model – in which economic agents are constantly weighing rationality versus irrationality when encountering options. In an exploratory, deterministic, two-period model, an assumption of a two-way cross-embedment (i.e., a two-way interaction between the rational and irrational components) results in a paradoxical phenomenon, an outcome of either tending toward bliss or abyss at the end of the first period. This implies, for instance, a psychological struggle between two selves within the mind. The paradigm proposed is compared to the dual-process theories recently developed by the cognitive sciences. Future research will explore implications for public policy design and implementation.     

15%保丰1号种衣剂拌种防治小麦白粉病田间药效试验

进行了 1 5 %保丰 1号种衣剂不同使用剂量与多菌灵、三唑酮及空白对照对小麦白粉病的田间药效试验。结果表明 :1 5 %保丰 1号种衣剂能有效防治小麦白粉病 ,其防效优于三唑酮和多菌灵 ,以 1 5 %保丰 1号种衣剂 40 0g有效成分拌 1 0 0kg小麦种子对白粉病的防效最佳     

第四代移动通信（4G）的技术分析与发展前景

文章介绍了第四代移动通信的概念,主要应用的技术以及4G的发展前景.     

THE CHOICE BETWEEN SETS OF REGRESSORS

This paper examines the choice of critical values for testing both non-sequential and nested sequential sets of constraints in the standard linear regression model. Modest increases in (e.g.) t-ratio critical values relative to their one-off values are often sufficient to maintain proper size. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach, highlighted by the Schwarz (1978) criterion, provides a framework for deriving consistency and asymptotic local power properties of both forms of testing (data mining) algorithms.     

The duration of unemployment in Russia

This paper uses longitudinal survey data to assess factors affecting the duration of unemployment in Russia. We examine four types of marginalised labour force participants, according to ILO guidelines and survey responses, and we estimate duration models for each type. It turns out that the sets of characteristics with the strongest effects on the duration are remarkably similar across the different unemployment definitions and model specifications. Therefore, despite the formidable practical measurement problems, problematic groups of individuals can actually be identified. Received: 27 January 1999/Accepted: 27 January 2000