基于VAR模型的安徽省粮食产量影响因素的实证研究

自然条件、政策环境、经济因素、技术进步等因素都会影响粮食产量。选取安徽省1990-2012年影响粮食生产的7个因素,最初,使用前向逐步回归分析的方法研究发现,对粮食产量影响较大的因素有粮食成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量3个变量。其次,Johansen协整检验阐释了这3个变量与粮食总产量之间的关系,并构造脉冲响应函数及进行方差分解得出这3个变量对总产量的贡献度为：粮食成灾面积〉化肥施用量〉有效灌溉面积。所以,增强农业工程的防灾减灾效果,提升农田水利基础设施的使用效率,科学控制化肥施用量对提高安徽省粮食综合生产能力具有重大作用。     

中国工业部门的能源CES生产函数估计

在构建1980—2010年中国工业部门投入—产出的数量和价格数据库基础上,估计了中国工业部门的能源CES生产函数,通过比较不同函数形式下的估计结果后发现:（1）（KE）L函数形式较符合中国工业部门的实际情况,且工业部门的资本—能源替代弹性的估计值为0.32,合成品—劳动的替代弹性的估计值为0.22;（2）（KE）L函数形式下,中国工业部门能源CES生产函数中的能源增强型技术进步率的估计值为2%,资本增强型技术进步率的估计值为-4%,劳动增强型技术进步率的估计值为6%。     

语言风格学视角下的工程俄语翻译浅析

语言风格学是一门从修辞学和文艺理论中分化出来的有关语言运用的新兴学科;工程俄语是科技风格的俄语,是工程技术领域的交流语言。从语言风格学的视角来讨论工程俄语在词汇和语法等方面的特点以及结合实例分析工程俄语的翻译可知,只有正确的掌握专业术语、精准记忆缩略语、准确翻译同根词、把控翻译对象的间架结构,才能提高工程俄语的口头、书面翻译技巧和准确性。与此同时,还应基于俄语和中文的不同语言特点,将工程俄语同译者母语（即中文）相比较,处理好翻译的语序和取舍关系,并且不断积累和更新相关科技知识,才能做好工程俄语的翻译。     

马克思主义群众观与社会主义的实践发展

马克思主义关于人的本质理论、群众观点、科学社会主义理论的形成和发展,不仅是理论探索的结果,而且更是调查研究和实践的结晶。文章立足于客观史实,以时间为导线,以马克思关于人的本质学说为切入点,阐述了马克思主义群众观的诞生和发展。结合我国的具体国情,介绍了马克思主义群众观和科学社会主义理论在不同历史时期对中国发展的影响,总结出只有坚持群众路线中国的改革和建设才能取得成功的科学论断。     

A Banzhaf share function for cooperative games in coalition structure

A cooperative game with transferable utility–or simply a TU-game– describes a situation in which players can obtain certain payoffs by cooperation. A value function for these games assigns to every TU-game a distribution of payoffs over the players. Well-known solutions for TU-games are the Shapley and the Banzhaf value. An alternative type of solution is the concept of share function, which assigns to every player in a TU-game its share in the worth of the grand coalition. In this paper we consider TU-games in which the players are organized into a coalition structure being a finite partition of the set of players. The Shapley value has been generalized by Owen to TU-games in coalition structure. We redefine this value function as a share function and show that this solution satisfies the multiplication property that the share of a player in some coalition is equal to the product of the Shapley share of the coalition in a game between the coalitions and the Shapley share of the player in a game between the players within the coalition. Analogously we introduce a Banzhaf coalition structure share function. Application of these share functions to simple majority games show some appealing properties.     

Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

Consequentialist foundations for expected utility

Behaviour norms are considered for decision trees which allow both objective probabilities and uncertain states of the world with unknown probabilities. Terminal nodes have consequences in a given domain. Behaviour is required to be consistent in subtrees. Consequentialist behaviour, by definition, reveals a consequence choice function independent of the structure of the decision tree. It implies that behaviour reveals a revealed preference ordering satisfying both the independence axiom and a novel form of sure-thing principle. Continuous consequentialist behaviour must be expected utility maximizing. Other plausible assumptions then imply additive utilities, subjective probabilities, and Bayes' rule.     

论政府在社会主义新农村建设中的地位和作用

在社会主义新农村建设过程中政府必须发挥主导作用,这是出于对转型时期的现实和三农问题历史成因的考察,同时借鉴国际经验得出的结论。政府的主导作用主要体现在,政府作为强有力的组织者和积极的直接参与者,通过制定周密可行的计划,以国家财政用于农村公共设施投入增加为主要手段,带动农村社会各项事业的发展。强调政府主导作用还要处理好与发挥农民主体作用的关系。     

社会转型时期单位体制的政治功能与生存空间

传统的单位体制是计划经济体制下国家履行政治职能和完成社会调控的基本组织制度,在这种制度下组织起来的各级各类单位组织成为社会结构的基本单元。在当前社会转型时期,单位体制自身的政治功能以及由其所塑造的社会结构都发生了深刻的变化,单位体制作为一种传统组织制度已经难以全面满足社会整合与调控的需要。为了保证社会的稳定和发展,需要对单位体制的政治功能演变及其在当前社会中的生存空间进行动态把握,以此促进新型社会调控体系的再造。在简政放权的政治改革背景下,培育介于政府和社会之间的第三领域成为现实的选择。     

论"诗教"的美学渗透途径及其功能

孔子是我国“诗教”的开创者。他十分重视诗歌在人的道德方面的教化作用以及“兴观群怨”等各种社会作用,但他却忽略了“诗教”中的极其重要的美学作用。受孔子的影响,后人对诗歌的美学研究一直是个薄弱的环节。诗歌之所以千百年来流传不衰,主要是诗歌的内容与形式达到了高度完美的统一。“美”是诗歌中一个极其活跃的因素,诗歌中的美学渗透作用同样是巨大的。