Kernel estimation of regression function gradient

Abstract

This paper is focused on kernel estimation of the gradient of a multivariate regression function. Despite the importance of this topic, the progress in this area is rather slow. Our aim is to construct a gradient estimator using the idea of local linear estimator for a regression function. The quality of this estimator is expressed in terms of the Mean Integrated Square Error. We focus on a choice of bandwidth matrix. Further, we present some data-driven methods for its choice and develop a new approach. The performance of presented methods is illustrated using a simulation study and real data example.     

An autocorrelation criterion for bandwidth selection in nonparametric regression ∗

In this note, we propose a new method for selecting the bandwidth parameter in non-parametric regression. While standard criteria, such as cross-validation, are based on the true regression curve about which we know little, we propose a criterion which focuses on the true errors about which assumptions may be made. Our proposal is to choose the bandwidth for which the residuals are as uncorrelated as possible. We use the Box-Pierce statistic as the objective to be minimized. In doing so, the behaviour of our residuals will be close to that of the true errors under the hypothesis of independent errors. A simulation study shows that our method succeeds in capturing the main features of the regression curve, in the sense that the number of turning-points of the curve is correctly estimated most of the time.     

Elimination of computer — induced errors

Computer solutions obtained in certain statistical applications can be seriously distorted because of the inability of the hardware to represent all numbers exactly. In this paper the author discusses a software system which eliminates that problem. The system is written in ASA standard FORTRAN, and hence is efficient and portable. A built-in preprocessor makes it possible to invoke the system automatically; the user need only write normal FORTRAN arithmetic expressions.     

A note on consistent estimation of Kullback–Leibler discrepancy in Poisson regression

A recent theorem by Hannig and Lee on consistency of their estimator of Kullback–Leibler discrepancy is re-proved under assumptions suitably modified to correct a fault in the original proof.     

Local Smoothing Using the Bootstrap

We consider the problem of data-based choice of the bandwidth of a kernel density estimator, with an aim to estimate the density optimally at a given design point. The existing local bandwidth selectors seem to be quite sensitive to the underlying density and location of the design point. For instance, some bandwidth selectors perform poorly while estimating a density, with bounded support, at the median. Others struggle to estimate a density in the tail region or at the trough between the two modes of a multimodal density. We propose a scale invariant bandwidth selection method such that the resulting density estimator performs reliably irrespective of the density or the design point. We choose bandwidth by minimizing a bootstrap estimate of the mean squared error (MSE) of a density estimator. Our bootstrap MSE estimator is different in the sense that we estimate the variance and squared bias components separately. We provide insight into the asymptotic accuracy of the proposed density estimator.     

On estimating the variance of a U-statistic

We compare jackknifing and bootstrapping as methods for estimating the variance of a U-statistic. The use of these estimates in calculating asymptotic confidence intervals is discussed, and the results of a numerical study involving Kendall's tau are reported. For the special case of this statistic, the bootstrap is the estimate of choice.     

Robust nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of point data

Intensity functions—which describe the spatial distribution of the occurrences of point processes—are useful for risk assessment. This paper deals with the robust nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of space–time data from events such as earthquakes. The basic approach consists of smoothing the frequency histograms with the local polynomial regression (LPR) estimator. This method allows for automatic boundary corrections, and its jump-preserving ability can be improved with robustness. We derive a robust local smoother from the weighted-average approach to M-estimation and we select its bandwidths with robust cross-validation (RCV). Further, we develop a robust recursive algorithm for sequential processing of the data binned in time. An extensive application to the Northern California earthquake catalog in the San Francisco, CA, area illustrates the method and proves its validity.     

The exact bootstrap mean and variance of an L-estimator

Exact analytic expressions for the bootstrap mean and variance of any L -estimator are obtained, thus eliminating the error due to bootstrap resampling. The expressions follow from the direct calculation of the bootstrap mean vector and covariance matrix of the whole set of order statistics. By using these expressions, recommendations can be made about the appropriateness of bootstrap estimation under given conditions.     

An Empirical Comparison of Probabilistic Coalition Structure Theories in 3-Person Sidepayment Games

This article reports a comparative test of the central-union theory vis-à-vis several other game-theoretic solution concepts in 3-person sidepayment games. Based on a laboratory experiment, this comparison utilizes nine games in characteristic function form. The solution concepts under test include the equal excess model, the Myerson–Shapley solution, the kernel, and two variants of the central-union theory (CU-1 and CU-2). With regard to the player's payoffs, results show that the CU-1, CU-2, kernel, and equal excess theories have essentially equal predictive accuracy and that all of these are more accurate than Myerson–Shapley. When the solution concepts are extended and coalition structure probability predictions are incorporated in the test, one version of the central-union theory (CU-2) is overall more accurate than the other solutions.     

A CONSISTENT MODEL SPECIFICATION TEST BASED ON THE KERNEL SUM OF SQUARES OF RESIDUALS

This paper constructs a consistent model specification test based on the difference between the nonparametric kernel sum of squares of residuals and the sum of squares of residuals from a parametric null model. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed test statistic under the null hypothesis of correct parametric specification and show that the wild bootstrap method can be used to approximate the null distribution of the test statistic. Results from a small simulation study are reported to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed tests.