The Lorenz Curve for Model Assessment in Exponential Order Statistic Models

A goodness-of-fit technique for random samples from the exponential distribution based on the sample Lorenz curve is adapted for use in the exponential order statistic (EOS) model. In the EOS model, only those observations in a random sample from the exponential distribution of unknown size N that are less than some known stopping time T are observable. The model is known as the Jelinski-Moranda model in software reliability, where it is used to estimate the number of bugs in software during development. Distributional results are derived for the distance between the sample Lorenz curve and the population Lorenz curve so that it can be used as a goodness-of-fit test statistic. Simulations show that the test has good power against several alternative distributions. Simulations also indicate that in some cases, model misspecification leads to poor parameter estimation. A plotting procedure provides a means of graphical assessment of fit.     

Quality engineering in japan

For controlling quality of products, there are two things we have to consider; how to measure the quality and how to improve it. The former is discussed in section 2 by introducing the difference in quality levels between Japan and USA. After briefly introducing all countermeasures for improving quality of products, an on-line quality control system design is proposed as the one which is more economical than removing defec- tives after manufacturing by conducting inspection. It has been ma?y Japanese companies' policy to keep pro- cess conditions at best in order to produce uniform products as far as possible. This paper discusses the optimum feed-back process control system design by checking either quality characteristics or process pa- rameters after introducing overall quality countermea- sures starting with product design.     

Estimation of the Lognormal-Pareto Distribution Using Probability Weighted Moments and Maximum Likelihood

This article deals with the estimation of the lognormal-Pareto and the lognormal-generalized Pareto distributions, for which a general result concerning asymptotic optimality of maximum likelihood estimation cannot be proved. We develop a method based on probability weighted moments, showing that it can be applied straightforwardly to the first distribution only. In the lognormal-generalized Pareto case, we propose a mixed approach combining maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments. Extensive simulations analyze the relative efficiencies of the methods in various setups. Finally, the techniques are applied to two real datasets in the actuarial and operational risk management fields.     

A semiparametric Bayesian model for repeatedly repeated binary outcomes

Summary.  We discuss the analysis of data from single-nucleotide polymorphism arrays comparing tumour and normal tissues. The data consist of sequences of indicators for loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and involve three nested levels of repetition: chromosomes for a given patient, regions within chromosomes and single-nucleotide polymorphisms nested within regions. We propose to analyse these data by using a semiparametric model for multilevel repeated binary data. At the top level of the hierarchy we assume a sampling model for the observed binary LOH sequences that arises from a partial exchangeability argument. This implies a mixture of Markov chains model. The mixture is defined with respect to the Markov transition probabilities. We assume a non-parametric prior for the random-mixing measure. The resulting model takes the form of a semiparametric random-effects model with the matrix of transition probabilities being the random effects. The model includes appropriate dependence assumptions for the two remaining levels of the hierarchy, i.e. for regions within chromosomes and for chromosomes within patient. We use the model to identify regions of increased LOH in a data set coming from a study of treatment-related leukaemia in children with an initial cancer diagnostic. The model successfully identifies the desired regions and performs well compared with other available alternatives.     

论形上迷失与异化劳动

形上迷失即终极关怀的缺失,它的内在原因是人的意识,但意识在人类诞生之初仅提供给形上迷失以先在的前提条件,真正导致形上迷失产生的是把人类从他的物质家园———自然中分离出去的异化劳动。在异化劳动的推动下形上迷失跨越史前时代、古代文明和轴心期这三个历史阶段,从偶然的可能开始经由现实的可能最终达到其完全的现实。与此同时在轴心期,人类的精神家园也随之而彻底建立。     

能源安全评价研究述评

能源安全一直是西方国家能源政策的主要目标,近年来也成为我国能源战略乃至国家安全战略的重点.本文全面综述了能源安全的定义、内涵、传导机制以及评价研究视角,梳理出能源安全评价的研究框架,并对指标加权构建标准化指数、计算中断概率、构造多样化指数间接刻画风险、衡量(期望)福利损失四种评价方法进行了述评.最后,对构建能源安全评价模型和实证研究我国能源安全存在的问题和面临的风险给出建议.     

透视德国法中纯粹经济损失的法律规制

纯粹经济损失是一个类似于德国法上的一般人格权的框架型权利,是一个在产生之后逐步被空洞化的概念。德国私法中纯粹经济损失概念的产生及“过失致纯粹经济损失不予赔偿”规则的确立,具有一种偶然性。纯粹经济损失问题的解决反映出各国的私法的救济方式不是凭空产生的,都会建立在本国法律传统及立法模式的基础上。     

An evaluation of the American Community Survey: results from the Oregon test site

The American Community Survey (ACS) is a Census Bureau product designed to provide accurate and timely demographic and economic indicators on an annual basis for both large and small geographic areas within the United States. Operational plans for Census 2010 call for ACS to replace the decennial census long form (Census LF), pending the results of evaluation studies. This plan represents a major change in that variables that traditionally have been collected on a “snapshot” basis once every 10 years would be collected on a “rolling” annual basis. Using a loss function analysis and other tools, this paper reports preliminary findings from a comparison of ACS and Census 2000 results in Multnomah County, Oregon, one of five national “local expert” test sites set up to compare ACS data collected at the time of Census 2000. The preliminary findings suggest that there are notable differences between some of the corresponding variables found in the ACS and Census LF that require more detailed examination. For example, the loss function analysis reveals notable differences for race and disability variables. In other comparisons of corresponding variables between ACS and Census 2000, differences are found within each of the four major areas of interest: (1) demographic characteristics, (2) social characteristics, (3) economic characteristics, and (4) housing characteristics, with housing characteristics showing the least similarity overall. These results also suggest that more detailed examinations are needed to understand differences between corresponding variables collected by ACS and the Census LF.     

令人震惊的痛失——刘醒龙《痛失》解读

《痛失》真实地描写了县乡官员的腐败行为 ,深刻地揭示了他们的道德水准 ,以民为本的灵魂和人的良知的痛失及其原因。从而启示我们 ,必须重视县乡政权建设 ,加强对县乡领导干部的监督、管理和教育 ;必须从政治体制改革的高度来看待反腐倡廉问题。     

MODEL BUILDING AND DATA MINING

This paper defines the phenomenon of data mining in econometrics and discusses various outcomes of and solutions to data mining. Both classical and Bayesian approaches are considered, each with notable advantages and disadvantages, and with the choice of loss function affecting critical values. Illustrative examples include variable addition and exclusion in a standard linear regression model, the choice of lag structure in a dynamic single equation, and specification in a simultaneous equations model.