股价暴涨的风险:基于中国股市的实证

股价暴涨直观上带来高收益，激发市场正面情绪，那么为什么暴涨被视为风险?本文利用2006年至2016年中国A股上市公司数据，通过计量建模对暴涨股票的特征和日后的市场表现进行刻画。实证发现：（1）股价暴涨频度高的股票，呈现低资产收益率、高市值账面比、多散户持股、少沪深300成份股等特点；（2）易发生暴涨的股票其长期超额收益率更低，未来有更大的暴跌风险和更高的收益率波动率；（3）对于运营基本面较差、市场过于乐观、信息披露质量较低的股票，暴涨后的暴跌风险更加明显。研究结论在不同代理变量选择、多种计量模型设定下均稳健成立。本文揭示了暴涨不仅仅是极端价格波动，而且更容易发生在高风险股票中，未来蕴含着更大的潜在损失。暴涨是实实在在的风险。     

关于姚鼐章学诚批评《文选》分类之得失问题--兼论"七""设论"与赋的关系

<文选>分类的确有可议之处,尤其是其小类.然这往往是"天然地"存在的,故只要对一大批文章进行较细的分类,就难以完全避免他人之"议".姚鼐、章学诚诸家的批评主要是因其没有充分地考虑到实际操作与理论要求间的差异及其"不思当时事实"所致.姚说似是而非,<古文辞类纂>亦多类似<文选>之"失";章说太半责非其所当责,少半或有理而萧统"持之有故".<文选>在文体分类方面的历史贡献是巨大的,尽管其更多的只是继承而非新的建树.     

基于遗传算法的经济性参数设计

针对田口方法的不足,本文在双因子方法DRA(dualresponseapproach)的基础上从经济的角度讨论了参数设计问题。考虑产品规格界限及质量损失的不对称性,建立了经济性参数设计模型,并利用遗传算法(GA)得到了最经济的过程均值与波动方差。最后给出一个实例验证了此模型是可行的,有效的。     

Mother Bear: A Relational Approach to Child Therapy

This paper explores the role and importance of the relationship in the treatment of a young foster child. Because of parental neglect and loss, the child related in an inauthentic manner in order to engage her parents. Her manner of relating arose from old patterns, which were defensive adaptations to traumatic situations. The authors employ a relational theory of the self to conceptualize the processes from an intrapsychic and interpersonal perspective. The paper emphasizes that all the interactions between child and therapist, both in and out of the traditional therapy office, converged into a multidimensional authentic relationship. The authors define this relationship experience as the life space and believe that the establishment of the life space contributed to progress in the therapy.     

台湾制造业损益表结构的新儒学考察

利用 96年台湾制造业工商普查资料 ,完成其损益表结构的新儒学逻辑的考察 ,计有十二点重要发现 ;并对企业损益表各项经营活动的新儒学阴阳观的有关观点 ,也一一给以定性确认     

资金约束下损失规避零售商的订购和广告协同策略

在损失规避下,探讨了零售商的订购和广告协同决策问题。零售商的初始资金状态存在三种情形：资金充足、资金相对短缺（不需融资）、资金短缺（对外融资）,分别在三种情形下刻画了零售商的最优运营策略,结果表明：零售商用于商品采购和广告的资金产生的边际效用与边际负效用之比相等,且介于1与单位融资资金的使用成本之间;用于两项活动的最后一单位资金产生的边际效用相等。探讨了损失规避、初始资金、融资利率、商品价格及广告促销的敏感性对运营策略的影响：在资金充足或资金短缺下,商品订购量和广告强度随影响因素的变动方向通常相同;在资金相对短缺下,商品订购量和广告强度随影响因素的变动方向则相反。讨论中揭示了一些管理启示。     

恶意失权：取得时效的视角转换与制度矫正

恶意失权通过强调权利人知道或应当知道有权利而长期不行使,导致社会秩序形成,来解释取得时效中权利人失去权利的本质原因,并最终回归到保护权利人这一民法权利法属性对取得时效制度的要求。通过将取得时效的理论视角转换为恶意失权,可以矫正现有取得时效制度过于偏向于占有人一方的制度设计,重新构造取得时效的起算点、中止、中断等具体制度。     

资金约束背景下反向保理的供应链合作

反向保理通过运用买方（核心企业）优良信誉解决卖方融资难问题。考虑核心企业因为反向保理而承担信誉损失风险的情形,刻画面临不确定需求时由单供应商和单零售商组成的二级供应链系统,建立供应商资金约束背景下基于批发价契约的博弈模型,探讨反向保理情形下的供应链合作,并通过模型演算和数值实验为供应商提供反向保理决策依据。研究发现：当供应商资金约束时,反向保理增加供应链收益,且核心企业受益更多;反向保理能增强供应链运营稳定性和捕捉机会的能力;研究意外发现了供应商和零售商同时受益于优惠的融资条件因而具有加强合作的动力。研究揭示了买方驱动融资的动机并为金融增强供应链合作提供新的支撑。     

Comparative analysis of emergency department patients lost to follow-up after computerized alcohol screening and brief intervention

Many studies have evaluated the effectiveness of alcohol screening and brief intervention (SBI) but most of them have reported substantial loss to follow-up without investigating the characteristics of those lost to follow-up. We examined the association between Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores, readiness-to-change scores and the demographic factors with lost to follow-up. This retrospective study compared demographic characteristics, AUDIT and readiness-to-change scores for 190 lost to follow-up patients to 221 completed follow-up patients who participated in SBI in the Emergency Department between June 2006 and May 2007. Comparing the association between baseline characteristics and completed follow-up rate, those 30–39, 40–49 and 50 years and older had 0.46 (95% CI 0.32–0.91), 0.49 (95% CI 0.29–0.90) and 0.58 (95%CI 0.22–0.79) lower odds of completing follow-up, respectively, in comparison to those 18–29 years of age. The loss to follow-up group reported more negative consequences of alcohol and binge drinking than the completed follow-up group (p = 0.04). Using logistic regression, patients who experienced more negative effects of alcohol had 0.87 lower odds of completing follow-up (95% CI 0.79–0.96). The patients lost to follow-up in this study were significantly different in age and alcohol drinking habits compared to those completed follow-ups. It is important to consider differential loss to follow-up in assessing the validity and generalizability of intervention studies. This could help in tailoring methods of approaching patients based on target population characteristics.