祈愿类俗赋举要(一)

俗赋除了具有铺写、用韵、虚拟等赋体特征之外,又兼有浅近、诙谐、实用等的俗文学性质。依俗赋的特质,可将其分为祈愿、诙谐、故事寓言、隐语、认知、铺叙、论辩等类。祈愿类俗赋有驱傩辞、上梁文、撒帐辞等民俗应用文。祈愿类的俗赋含有基层民众的生活愿望,表现出铺排的文学效果,兼具有民俗研究与文学欣赏的价值。     

Reliability of global sensitivity indices

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an essential ingredient of model development and applications. For many uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, sensitivity indices are calculated based on a relatively large sample to measure the importance of parameters in their contributions to uncertainties in model outputs. To statistically compare their importance, it is necessary that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques provide standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices. In this paper, a delta method is used to analytically approximate standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices for a popular sensitivity analysis method, the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Standard errors estimated based on the delta method were compared with those estimated based on 20 sample replicates. We found that the delta method can provide a good approximation for the standard errors of both first-order and higher-order sensitivity indices. Finally, based on the standard error approximation, we also proposed a method to determine a minimum sample size to achieve the desired estimation precision for a specified sensitivity index. The standard error estimation method presented in this paper can make the FAST analysis computationally much more efficient for complex models.     

Optimality Of Some Two-Stage Sampling Methods

Two-stage sampling plans in which the estimator is computed from the second sample only, and has a guaranteed precision irrespective of the parameter value, are considered. We prove the following optimality property for existing strategies in binomial and Poisson populations: there exists no other

strategy, of the same form, that guarantees the same precision, without increasing the expected sample size for some parameter valucs. The method of proof is illustrnted by proving a similar result for normal populations     

Geo-sampling in developing nations

RTI International created a geospatial grid-based sampling methodology that: achieved a probability-based household sample and unbiased estimates; was comparable across countries; used simple frame data available from the in-country census; and was efficient with minimal training to local field staff. The methodology used 1 km² LandScan world population data, which was further subdivided to smaller grid cells ranging from 50 to 150 m². To guide fieldwork, georeferenced maps were generated and viewed without an Internet connection using a third-party app and the tablet’s internal global positioning systems receiver. The field staff’s location was displayed in real time as a blue dot enabling field staff to determine household inclusivity. This methodology was successfully implemented for household surveys Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The design is transferable, adaptable, scalable, and can be used anywhere in the world.     

Bootstrap confidence bands for the CDF using ranked-set sampling

In ranked-set sampling (RSS), a stratification by ranks is used to obtain a sample that tends to be more informative than a simple random sample of the same size. Previous work has shown that if the rankings are perfect, then one can use RSS to obtain Kolmogorov–Smirnov type confidence bands for the CDF that are narrower than those obtained under simple random sampling. Here we develop Kolmogorov–Smirnov type confidence bands that work well whether the rankings are perfect or not. These confidence bands are obtained by using a smoothed bootstrap procedure that takes advantage of special features of RSS. We show through a simulation study that the coverage probabilities are close to nominal even for samples with just two or three observations. A new algorithm allows us to avoid the bootstrap simulation step when sample sizes are relatively small.     

参差重复频率分析和设计

雷达工作于脉冲工作状态时不可避免的会出现盲速现象。可通过参差重频的方法减少盲速带来的影响。在推导频率响应的基础上,该文采用最优化设计的方法进行参差周期的设计,详细考虑并推导得到了最优化搜索中几个重要参数,给出了其解析表达式。仿真结果和频率响应图表明,该方法得到的参差周期能将慢速扩大到原来盲速的数倍以上,有效地减少了盲速的影响。     

企业信息化指数测算方法研究

应用模糊集合论和主成分分析的方法对企业信息化进行了综合评判,引进了一种新的隶属函数对数据进行了无量纲化处理并确定了各指标权重,建立了山东省企业信息化指数模型。利用此方法对 5家企业信息化进行综合评价,得到了满意的结果。     

粗集与神经网络相结合的股票价格预测模型

粗集和神经网络结合反映了人类智能的定性和定量、清晰和隐含、串行和并行相互交叉混合的常规思维机理。本文建立这样一种混合杂交模型用于股票价格波动趋势的预测,通过粗集对数据的二维约简预处理消除了样本中的噪声和冗余,在提高神经网络预测精度的同时降低了学习负担。为了获得最优的预测精度,本文还利用遗传算法进行属性离散化和网络学习。通过对上证综指的实证研究表明,这种混合杂交模型的性能明显优于BP和GA神经网络模型。     

成套产品定价方法研究

在给出成套产品定价的概念的基础上,通过一个简单的算例来说明成套产品定价方法的思想,给出了纯成套产品定价方法的总收益大于产品单卖时的总收益的条件,并给出了混合成套产品定价时最优成套出售的套数k^#存在的区间。     

试析辛提卡的语言博弈论

辛提卡提出语言博弈理论旨在建立一种能用于系统分析或摹拟人的认识活动的过程及其结果的理论。这一理论以可能世界理论为基础 ,它把形式逻辑的模型集合建构看做一种特殊的博弈活动 ,用“寻找且找到博弈”描述以现实为对象的语言活动 ,并刻画了两种博弈之间的联系。“寻找且找到博弈”不同于运算 ,它的结局不是预先可断定的 ;而这一博弈规则是制约着语句F的整个证实过程的规则。