Tests for normality with stable alternatives

This paper is concerned with testing normality of observations and regression disturbances when the alternative belongs to the stable family.     

Keep it simple: on specific-to-general predictor selection for time series forecasting in the short,medium and long run

This paper describes the forecasting performance of general-to-specific and specific-to-general predictor selection within specifications fitting into the class of (approximate) linear autoregressions. Short, medium and long horizon forecasting exercises are distinguished. Regarding the latter, iterative prediction is compared with direct conditioning on available time series information. Ex ante forecasting results are provided for 495 real macro-economic and financial time series recently collected for 25 economies and the Euro area [A. Inouea and L. Kilian, On the selection of forecasting models, J. Econ. 130 (2006), pp. 273–306]. Almost 9000 single predictions enter the modelling comparison. Overall, specific-to-general predictor selection turns out to offer preferable prediction outcomes in terms of statistical and more economic loss functions. With regard to medium (long) term prediction, the analysis is supportive for direct (iterative) multistep prediction.     

New calibration estimator in stratified sampling

This paper develops the theory of calibration estimation and proposes calibration approach alternative to existing calibration estimators for estimating population mean of the study variable using auxiliary variable in stratified sampling. The theory of new calibration estimation is given and optimum weights are derived. A simulation study is carried out to performance of the proposed calibration estimator with other existing calibration estimators. The results reveal that the proposed calibration estimators are more efficient than Tracy et al., Singh et al., Singh calibration estimators of the population mean.     

Das Public Kapital: How much would higher German public investment help Germany and the euro area?

Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional spillovers. Although time-to-build delays can weaken the impact of the stimulus in the short-run, the expansionary effects of higher public investment are substantially strengthened by an accommodative monetary policy stance. The current low-interest rate environment presents a window of opportunity to finance higher public investment at historically favorable rates.     

论弹性力学广义变分原理的临界变分现象

应用拉氏乘子法消除Ｈｅｌｌｉｎｇｅｒ－Ｒｅｉｓｓｎｅｒ变分原理的约束关系时，在识别拉氏乘子的过程中，会出现拉氏乘子为零的现象，这种现象称为临界变分现象，本文提出了一些新的观点来解释这种现象。     

流体力学中的临界变分现象及其消除方法

通过一个具体例子，阐述了流体力学中存在的各种临界主分现象，并指出临界变分是拉氏乘子的固有特性。详细综述了消除临界变分的各种方法：刘高联预处理拉氏乘子法、钱伟长高阶拉氏乘子法及作者提出的半反推法。