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21.
AbstractIn the fields of internet financial transactions and reliability engineering, there could be more zero and one observations simultaneously. In this paper, considering that it is beyond the range where the conventional model can fit, zero-and-one-inflated geometric distribution regression model is proposed. Ingeniously introducing Pólya-Gamma latent variables in the Bayesian inference, posterior sampling with high-dimensional parameters is converted to latent variables sampling and posterior sampling with lower-dimensional parameters, respectively. Circumventing the need for Metropolis-Hastings sampling, the sample with higher sampling efficiency is obtained. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed estimation for various sample sizes. Finally, a doctoral dissertation data set is analyzed to illustrate the practicability of the proposed method, research shows that zero-and-one-inflated geometric distribution regression model using Pólya-Gamma latent variables can achieve better fitting results. 相似文献
22.
为准确把握中国天然气供需安全状态,以2006-2014年的数据为样本,在模糊隶属度函数量化指标值的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵值法确定指标权重,基于线性加权和函数计算均方根进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)中国天然气供需安全指数呈现"N形"波动,2006-2007年天然气供需安全指数上升。2007-2013年天然气供需安全指数年均下降1.7979。2013年以来天然气供需安全指数开始回升,天然气供需安全压力有所缓解。(2)天然气供应安全指数从2006年的17.5914下降到2013年的0.1556,峰谷差17.4359。天然气需求安全指数呈现"W形"波动。天然气市场安全指数相对稳定,2013年以来略有上升,天然气市场风险逐年下降。(3)天然气供需安全很大程度上取决于天然气供应是否安全。因此,建议从确保天然气稳定供应、提高天然气使用效率和降低市场风险方面采取措施,维护天然气供需安全。 相似文献
23.
This article proposes a linearly weighted unit root test with a new weighting scheme which reflects the trade-off in power between the ADF and LM tests regarding the initial value of a time series. Simulation results indicate that the proposed test has better power performance and works better than other available tests in the literature for a range of initial conditions. 相似文献
24.
Joakim Westerlund 《Econometric Reviews》2016,35(3):396-427
This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance. 相似文献
25.
Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around. 相似文献
26.
In this paper, we propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Negative Binomial distribution and the time to event follows a Weibull distribution. Indeed, we introduce the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) distribution, which can be used in order to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing and some non-monotonous shaped. Another advantage of the proposed model is that it has some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Moreover, the proposed model includes as special cases some of the well-know cure rate models discussed in the literature. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a WNB model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a medical data. 相似文献
27.
Marcel de Toledo Vieira Maria de Fátima Salgueiro Peter W. F. Smith 《Journal of applied statistics》2016,43(7):1310-1321
We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling. 相似文献
28.
程尔奇 《西南大学学报(社会科学版)》2007,33(4)
清末两大社会群体--清朝统治集团和知识分子在1905年前后复杂的社会思潮背景中,分别在自身力所能及的范围内展开活动,力图制造、控制社会舆论.而从他们的活动与社会舆论的互动关系中,又可观察到当时社会思潮隐与显的不同面相,从而更为深入地理解政治和思想的交织与缠绕. 相似文献
29.
黄旭平 《湖南工程学院学报(社会科学版)》2007,17(2):1-4
运用面板单位根与面板协整方法研究长江流域的消费函数。基于10省(市)1981-2003年的宏观消费与收入的面板数据,研究发现消费与收入存在显著的面板协整关系,边际消费倾向也非常稳定,稳定在0.7-0.85之间。为此,应采取鼓励消费的政策,从而促进经济长期增长。 相似文献
30.
成功的女性形象的塑造,是中国现代丈学的重要成就之一.从文化角度看,现代文学的女性形象可分两大类;传统女性与现代女性.本文对传统女性中一个特殊的阶层——旧式家庭中的婆婆的形象进行分析,试图发掘其“特权”存在的历史文化根源. 相似文献