Pairwise comparisons of treatments with ordinal responses in a two-way setting

In clinical studies, pairwise comparisons are frequently performed to examine differences in efficacy between treatments. The statistical methods of pairwise comparisons are available when treatment responses are measured on an ordinal scale. The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test and the latent normal model are popular examples. However, these procedures cannot be used to compare treatments in parallel groups (a two-way design) when overall type I error must be controlled. In this paper, we explore statistical approaches to the pairwise testing of treatments that satisfy the requirements of a two-way layout. The results of our simulation indicate that the latent normal approach is superior to the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test. Clinical examples are used to illustrate our suggested testing methods.     

中国城镇化:历史道路、制度根源与国际经验

中国城镇化发展的每一个历史阶段,都对应了中国经济社会发展中需要解决的核心问题。当前中国城镇化发展面临的瓶颈,其形成有深刻的社会历史制度根源。要从全球及中国发展大战略的角度,历史性地考察中国城镇化道路的历史演变及其逻辑,探寻中国城镇化发展瓶颈的社会历史制度根源,并借鉴国际经验,推动新型城镇化的健康发展。为此,需要在战略认知方面,突破城镇化发展传统思维的束缚,形成创新性的新型城镇化发展战略的理念;在制度建构方面,形成推动和保障城镇化发展的有针对性的战略框架;在动员多元主体力量与资源方面,要实行多元主体间的协调合作,打造城镇化发展的组织化支持系统。     

人本德育研究的唯物史观向度

以人为本是当代德育研究的核心话语与崭新范式。目前关于人本德育的理论探索主要是一种限于德育系统内部的抽象理念阐释与具体方法策略构建的研究模式,它尚未真正触及人本德育的根本性问题(如人本德育缺失的社会根源、人本德育实现的根本条件等)。人本德育研究的视角需要有所突破。从唯物史观的角度来看,政治与德育的关系问题是人本德育的根本性问题,而意识形态与人类基本价值的辩证统一是人本德育实现的根本性条件。只有站在唯物史观的高度,才能有效解答人本德育的根本性问题,才能为人本德育奠定彻底、完整的理论基础。人本德育研究唯物史观向度的确立不仅具有必要性,而且具有可能性。     

“根”文化背景下的人性呼唤——以小说《春去春来》为例

文化作为一个民族或者一个团体的生活方式,应该有共同遵守的价值标准。在中国,道德根文化影响着民族的生活方式。路一凡生活在特定的环境中,受到道德根文化的熏染,具有君子之德。他性格的形成具有两方面的原因:周围智者的教化,秀美山水的滋养。由此造就了他肉身欲求与精神欲求和谐一体的美,锤炼了他的文化自信。     

长江流域的消费函数:基于非稳定面板数据的分析

运用面板单位根与面板协整方法研究长江流域的消费函数。基于10省(市)1981-2003年的宏观消费与收入的面板数据,研究发现消费与收入存在显著的面板协整关系,边际消费倾向也非常稳定,稳定在0.7-0.85之间。为此,应采取鼓励消费的政策,从而促进经济长期增长。     

基于潜类别随机前沿的区域创新效率及其影响因素分析

运用可根据研究对象的潜在属性内生分组的潜类别随机前沿模型,采用1999-2012年中国各省区数据,研究各省区的创新效率及影响因素。结果表明:以人力资本水平和基础设施状况为条件变量,将全国各省区分成两个技术类别,分别有各自的技术前沿和函数形式,A类别中上海市的创新效率最高,B类别中河北省的创新效率最高;平均来看,各类的创新效率均呈上升趋势,贸易开放、产业结构和金融发展对创新效率均有显著的正向作用,同时创新效率在各类内部均存在俱乐部收敛。     

Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility

A number of recent papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, taken the lag length in the unit root test regression to be a deterministic function of the sample size, rather than data-determined, the latter being standard empirical practice. We investigate the finite sample impact of unconditional heteroskedasticity on conventional data-dependent lag selection methods in augmented Dickey–Fuller type regressions and propose new lag selection criteria which allow for unconditional heteroskedasticity. Standard lag selection methods are shown to have a tendency to over-fit the lag order under heteroskedasticity, resulting in significant power losses in the (wild bootstrap implementation of the) augmented Dickey–Fuller tests under the alternative. The proposed new lag selection criteria are shown to avoid this problem yet deliver unit root tests with almost identical finite sample properties as the corresponding tests based on conventional lag selection when the shocks are homoskedastic.     

Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?

The monetary policy targets the short rates; however, during zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the short end of the yield curve cannot serve as a policy instrument. Relying on the joint yields-macro latent factors model, this study empirically examines the effect of monetary policy stances on term structure and the possible feedback effect on the real sector using the Japanese experience of ZIRP. The analysis indicates that it is the entire term structure that transmits the policy shocks to the real economy rather than the yield spread only. The monetary policy signals pass through the yield curve level and slope factors to stimulate the economic activity. The curvature factor, besides reflecting the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, acts as a leading indicator for future inflation. In addition, policy influence tends to be low as the short end becomes segmented toward medium/long-term of the yield curve. Furthermore, volatility in bond markets is found to be asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks and long end tends to be less sensitive to stochastic shocks than the short maturities. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure does not hold during the ZIRP period.     

苏东演变的主要历史教训与反腐败问题

本文概述了苏东演变的两个主要历史教训。并根据我国国情，提出如何反对腐败，建立制度化、法律化的民主制的若干看法。     

科技双刃剑的博弈论研究

科技是一把双刃剑,它在推动人类社会向前发展的同时,也产生了许多人类所始料未及的负面效应。运用博弈论原理对产生科技双刃剑效应的根源进行分析,以期为解决科技双刃剑的负面影响探索有效的应对策略。