Dirichlet models for square contingency tables

We consider the square contingency tables which arise when the same method of classification is applied twice. The hypothesis of marginal homogeneity is then relevant! and can be tested by various methods Models are discussed which contain marginal homogeneity as a special case. They include a class based on univariate and bivariate Dirichlet distributions. The question of ordered categories is briefly discussed. Applications are made to data on unaided distance vision.     

模式解构的极致与限度--论新历史小说对民国时代的叙述

西方当代史学观念的介绍与引进、历史行程的延展性与几度的迂回性、作家自身的独特经历促使新一代作家抛弃既有历史观、文学观,完全颠覆民国叙事的经典模式打破阶级界线、释放个人欲望、强调偶然不测,并用种种形式探索来显示历史叙述的主观性,创作了一批被称为"新历史小说"的作品.但解构的偏执,使他们的历史言说局限于"前文本"的固有层次,最终未能表达出对民国时代的个性化理解.     

两姐妹与蛇丈夫——"蛇郎”故事的中华文化特色

“蛇郎”是一个覆盖欧亚土陆,以它的奇光异彩与丰富内涵为世界所注目的幻想故事.中国“蛇郎”     

简论高校基层党组织作用的有效发挥

在改革开放不断深入、素质教育全面铺开、高校办学规模日益扩大的新形势下 ,高校基层党组织特别是院系党总支应彻实贯彻江泽民同志“三个代表”思想落 ,加强领导班子自身建设 ,切实加强党组织的政治核心作用和保证监督作用 ,积极参与行政决策     

寻找与背离：寻根派小说论

寻根派小说作为最近几十年以来惟一自觉的小说流派 ,一直是中国当代文学的研究重点。寻根派小说纠结于传统文化与现代文化之间 ,暧昧的传统特色与模糊的现代特征导致了寻根派小说具备着罗杰·福勒所说的“文本间性”的特征 ;寻找与背离 ,是寻根派小说的文本品性。     

Structural equation models for area health outcomes with model selection

Recent analyses seeking to explain variation in area health outcomes often consider the impact on them of latent measures (i.e. unobserved constructs) of population health risk. The latter are typically obtained by forms of multivariate analysis, with a small set of latent constructs derived from a collection of observed indicators, and a few recent area studies take such constructs to be spatially structured rather than independent over areas. A confirmatory approach is often applicable to the model linking indicators to constructs, based on substantive knowledge of relevant risks for particular diseases or outcomes. In this paper, population constructs relevant to a particular set of health outcomes are derived using an integrated model containing all the manifest variables, namely health outcome variables, as well as indicator variables underlying the latent constructs. A further feature of the approach is the use of variable selection techniques to select significant loadings and factors (especially in terms of effects of constructs on health outcomes), so ensuring parsimonious models are selected. A case study considers suicide mortality and self-harm contrasts in the East of England in relation to three latent constructs: deprivation, fragmentation and urbanicity.     

H_2O_2对大豆根边缘细胞发育的影响

以大豆根发育不同阶段的边缘细胞为对象,研究不同浓度H2O2对其活性的影响.结果表明:大豆根边缘细胞游离发育的启动与初生根发育几乎同步,并且在初生根生长至15mm时,边缘细胞数目达到最大值,约为5100个;低浓度H2O2对边缘细胞的活性具有促进作用,高浓度则抑制其活性.     

企业党建工作必须体现先进性建设这个根本

先进性建设是企业党建工作的根本.要增强党的先进性必须仅仅围绕发展经济这个中心任务来进行;必须实现好,维护好,发展好广大职工群众的根本利益;必须不断增强企业党组织的执政能力建设;必须在继承和创新中构建保持党的先进性的长效机制.     

Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework

We develop a new quantile‐based panel data framework to study the nature of income persistence and the transmission of income shocks to consumption. Log‐earnings are the sum of a general Markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation. The persistence of past shocks to earnings is allowed to vary according to the size and sign of the current shock. Consumption is modeled as an age‐dependent nonlinear function of assets, unobservable tastes, and the two earnings components. We establish the nonparametric identification of the nonlinear earnings process and of the consumption policy rule. Exploiting the enhanced consumption and asset data in recent waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that the earnings process features nonlinear persistence and conditional skewness. We confirm these results using population register data from Norway. We then show that the impact of earnings shocks varies substantially across earnings histories, and that this nonlinearity drives heterogeneous consumption responses. The framework provides new empirical measures of partial insurance in which the transmission of income shocks to consumption varies systematically with assets, the level of the shock, and the history of past shocks.     

A Full Bayesian Non-parametric Analysis Involving a Neutral to the Right Process

Implementation of a full Bayesian non-parametric analysis involving neutral to the right processes (apart from the special case of the Dirichlet process) has been difficult for two reasons: first, the posterior distributions are complex and therefore only Bayes estimates (posterior expectations) have previously been presented; secondly, it is difficult to obtain an interpretation for the parameters of a neutral to the right process. In this paper we extend Ferguson & Phadia (1979) by presenting a general method for specifying the prior mean and variance of a neutral to the right process, providing the interpretation of the parameters. Additionally, we provide the basis for a full Bayesian analysis, via simulation, from the posterior process using a hybrid of new algorithms that is applicable to a large class of neutral to the right processes (Ferguson & Phadia only provide posterior means). The ideas are exemplified through illustrative analyses.