Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio Test for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second-Order Autoregression

This paper provides a means of accurately simulating explosive autoregressive processes and uses this method to analyze the distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for an explosive second-order autoregressive process of a unit root. While the standard Dickey-Fuller distribution is known to apply in this case, simulations of statistics in the explosive region are beset by the magnitude of the numbers involved, which cause numerical inaccuracies. This has previously constituted a bar on supporting asymptotic results by means of simulation, and analyzing the finite sample properties of tests in the explosive region.     

第二大股东持股的治理效应——基于上市公司的实证分析

本文以763家上市公司2003年的横截面数据为样本,通过考察公司绩效与第二大股东持股之间的经验关系,考察了第二大股东持股的治理功能。通过结合上市公司数据建立一个多元模型,来说明第二大股东是如何监督第一大股东,影响公司价值的。研究发现,我国并不存在有效的股权制衡机制,第二大股东的存在没有显示出积极的治理激励功能,没有反映出第二大股东对第一大股东的监督激励作用。在我国目前的制度背景下,相对控股是一种最佳的平衡状态。     

Intergenerational Exchanges of Middle‐Aged Adults With Their Parents and Parents‐In‐Law in Korea

The authors investigated patterns of support exchanges between Korean adult children and their parents and parents‐in‐law, gender differences in these patterns, and implications of children's marital quality for exchange patterns. Data were from a nationally representative sample of married adults (N = 920, age 30–59 years) with at least 1 living parent and 1 living parent‐in‐law. Latent class analysis was applied to 12 indicators of exchanges (financial, instrumental, emotional support given to and received from parents and parents‐in‐law). Five classes of exchanges were identified, 3 showing balanced patterns of exchanges with parents and parents‐in‐law across three types of support and 2 classes with unbalanced patterns (e.g., giving instrumental and financial but not emotional support). The findings revealed variability in intergenerational exchange patterns, with a mix of patrilineal traditional and balanced patterns. Significant associations of exchange patterns with adult children's marital quality suggest the importance of balanced exchanges with parents for marriage.     

Moderate Deviation Principles for Empirical Covariance in the Neighbourhood of the Unit Root

In this paper, we consider the linear autoregressive model with varying coefficients θ_n∈[0,1). When θ_n tending to the unit root, the moderate deviation principle for empirical covariance is discussed, and as statistical applications, we provide the moderate deviation estimates of the least square and the Yule–Walker estimators of the parameter θ_n.     

Small-Sample Improved Seasonal Unit Root Tests for Trending and Breaking Series

In this article three unit root tests that allow for a break in both the seasonal mean and linear trend of the data are proposed. The tests, which can be seen as small-sample corrected versions of already known asymptotic tests, are shown to perform very well in simulations, and much better than their asymptotic counterparts.     

Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Multi-Variance Break and Level Shifts That Have Power Against the Piecewise Stationary Alternative

Structural breaks in the level as well as in the volatility have often been exhibited in economic time series. In this paper, we propose new unit root tests when a time series has multiple shifts in its level and the corresponding volatility. The proposed tests are Lagrangian multiplier type tests based on the residual's marginal likelihood which is free from the nuisance mean parameters. The limiting null distributions of the proposed tests are the χ²distributions, and are affected not by the size and the location of breaks but only by the number of breaks.

We set the structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses to relieve a possible vagueness in interpreting test results in empirical work. The null hypothesis implies a unit root process with level shifts and the alternative connotes a stationary process with level shifts. The Monte Carlo simulation shows that our tests are locally more powerful than the OLSE-based tests, and that the powers of our tests, in a fixed time span, remain stable regardless the number of breaks. In our application, we employ the data which are analyzed by Perron (1990), and some results differ from those of Perron's (1990).     

底层：道义的关怀——浅论韩少功残障人物的书写根源

韩少功在他的小说中创作出了一系列丰富而又独特的残障人物，通过具体考察他的生活遭际、学养渊源，从现实性、历史性以及世界性等三个因素来分析他对于残障人物的创作理念，即以启蒙的道义来关注底层的写作心态。这种理念和心态，源于他本人的生活经历，从而受益于繁杂的阅历；源于他本人的学识历史渊源，从而受益于传统和记忆的深度；源于他本人的放眼世界的视野，从而受益于西学的熏陶。     

再论“恋母情结”兼乱伦禁忌寻根

18 97年 ,弗洛伊德提出了所谓的“恋母情结”。他认为 ,俄底蒲斯“杀父娶母”悲剧的导演者是“性”。婴儿时代 ,俄底蒲斯潜意识中对母亲的性依恋和对父亲的性仇视是导致其成年后杀父娶母的原因。如果说“杀父娶母”悲剧的根源在于命运的捉弄、非能力性的“不辨血亲” ,而原始的“杀父娶母”的悲剧根源则在于人们还没有建立起血亲观念 ,能力性的不辨血亲。在“不辨血亲”的情况下 ,俄底蒲斯的“杀父”与“娶母”是没有必然联系的两个孤立性的行为 ,它集中体现了原始人所普遍存在的同性倾压与异性冲突。乱伦禁忌以及一切性文明也取决于一个共同的基础———为生存与发展的现实功利     

以民为本:中国共产党从革命到执政的实践基础

中国共产党的三代领导集体 ,经历了革命、执政、改革开放和社会主义市场经济的社会实践 ,在不同历史时期 ,牢记为人民服务的宗旨 ,赢得了人民的支持 ,也向人民交出了无愧于时代的出色答卷。新的世纪 ,我党仍面临严峻考验。但中外历史经验证明 ,只要以民为本 ,服务人民 ,就能使社会主义祖国走向繁荣、富强     

中世纪宗教与技术对人类生态思想的影响——探寻生态危机产生的中世纪根源

中世纪以来工具理性和功利主义开始主导人类的思维方式和行为规范,人与自然的关系愈发错综复杂甚至紧张起来。由此,当代生态危机的真正源头可以追溯到中世纪。中世纪的宗教和技术状况深刻地影响了人类的生态思想。中世纪作为宗教时代,引发了自然观念的彻底变更,古希腊那种敬畏自然的观念被颠覆,取而代之的是人类对于自然的主体性地位的高扬;中世纪作为技术时代,则导致了实用技术理性与技术乐观主义,由此强化了对自然的资源化理解,科学精神那种面向自然时不谋求实际利益的求知,被实用技术带来的物质利益所遮蔽。如何进行有效的解蔽工作,是当今生态文明时代的艰巨使命。