论太平洋战争爆发前美国对日本的经济制裁

太平洋战争爆发前,日本在远东、太平洋地区的猖狂攻势严重地影响了美国在这些地区的利益。为了阻止战争的进一步扩大,美国对日本实施了一定程度的经济制裁。但由于国内外种种因素的影响,这种制裁又具有很大的局限性。     

北京的旧城改造应放慢步伐

老北京城作为人类历史文化遗产,需要进行整体保护。保护和传承北京这座中国最大也是最好的历史文化名城,是我们应该担负起的责任。目前的分片保护政策和已经造成的破坏,将无可挽回地毁损这个有着几百年历史的文化古都。该文呼吁改变旧有观念,放慢旧城改造的速度,对北京旧城实施更为全面、合理的保护措施,对四合院等民居建筑应给予新的定位和认识。在北京市旧城改造过程中,处理好保护与发展的矛盾。     

李斯特生产力理论:唯物史观研究中被遮蔽的视界

李斯特生产力理论由三部分构成--物质生产力系统、制度生产力系统和精神生产力系统。从理论框架看,它透过经济学范畴孕育了一种历史价值观,并为我们揭示历史发展之谜呈现了三个分析框架--经济分析框架、制度分析框架和精神分析框架。李斯特生产力理论与马克思生产力理论进而与历史唯物主义有内在联系。从概念继承关系看,马克思不仅直接继承了李斯特的"生产力"概念,而且他把生产力作为一个理论体系来把握也深受李斯特的影响。从内容统摄关系看,李斯特生产力理论与马克思生产力理论在内容上的相关性也非常明显;最为重要的是,马克思通往"哲学新视界真正前夜"的道路正是通过批判李斯特生产力理论来实现的。在理论观照层面,李斯特生产力理论对于消解"第二演化图示说"、"经济决定论"等唯物史观理论困境具有深刻的启发意义。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

Bayesian MARS

A Bayesian approach to multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) fitting (Friedman, 1991) is proposed. This takes the form of a probability distribution over the space of possible MARS models which is explored using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Green, 1995). The generated sample of MARS models produced is shown to have good predictive power when averaged and allows easy interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the overall fit.     

这项损失和支出是怎样体现为利润分配在税后利润中列支的

本文从经济业务的属性与所得税的计征两方面,阐述了被没收的财物损失,支付各项税收的滞纳金和罚款,是在企业税后利润中列支的一项利润分配内容。     

Estimation using plug-in of the stationary distribution and Shannon entropy of continuous time Markov processes

A natural way to deal with the uncertainty of an ergodic finite state space Markov process is to investigate the entropy of its stationary distribution. When the process is observed, it becomes necessary to estimate this entropy.We estimate both the stationary distribution and its entropy by plug-in of the estimators of the infinitesimal generator. Three situations of observation are discussed: one long trajectory is observed, several independent short trajectories are observed, or the process is observed at discrete times. The good asymptotic behavior of the plug-in estimators is established. We also illustrate the behavior of the estimators through simulation.     

冷战结束前印度和中亚关系的历史变迁

印度一直把中亚看作是自己＂延伸的邻国＂,两个地区从远古到现代在政治、经济和文化等方面都存在着诸多联系。文章试图从古代、中世纪、近代及冷战期间四个阶段论述两个地区间的交往和联系,以期为我们在新形势下解读崛起的印度同中亚地区的关系提供宝贵的历史经验和借鉴。     

Estimate for the Finite-time Ruin Probability in the Discrete-time Risk Model with Insurance and Financial Risks

In this article, we consider a discrete-time risk model with insurance and financial risks. We derive some refinements of a general asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability under the assumptions that the net losses follow a common distribution in the intersection between the subexponential class and the Gumbel maximum domain of attraction, and the stochastic discount factors of the risky asset have a common distribution with extended regular variation. The obtained asymptotic upper and lower bounds are transparent and computable.     

基于可变强度跳跃-GARCH模型的资产价格跳跃行为分析——以中国上市公司股票市场数据为例

近年来,美国金融危机、欧债危机、地震等突发事件不断冲击着我国金融市场,各类资产价格频繁出现大幅跳动,收益风险短期内急剧扩大。鉴于此,本文构建了门限效应下状态变量依赖自回归强度跳跃-GARCH模型（简称TSD-ARJI-GARCH模型）来探讨股票资产价格随时间平滑波动和大幅度跳跃的双重特征。该模型扩展了现有可变强度跳跃-GARCH模型,克服了片面强调内生或外生因素的局限性,既允许跳跃强度受单个资产异质因素的内生驱动,以刻画跳跃变化的时变性及集聚性,也考虑了外部状态变量影响的门限效应。通过对不同类型中国上市公司股票市场数据的实证分析,验证了该模型对各类上市公司股票资产价格跳跃特征都具有较好的辨别和预测能力,可为动态监管金融资产的跳跃风险提供理论依据。