论陇东方言叠音的语法特征及修辞功能

陇东方言中存在着大量的叠音现象,叠音不仅是构词法,也是构形法,是新词衍生途径,叠音词的运用,有助于增强语言的旋律美。研究和分析这些叠音现象,与普通话和其他汉语方言进行比照分析,有助于进一步发掘和探究陇东方言的特点。     

Analysis of least squares regression estimates in case of additional errors in the variables

Estimation of a regression function from independent and identical distributed data is considered. The L₂ error with integration with respect to the design measure is used as error criterion. Upper bounds on the L₂ error of least squares regression estimates are presented, which bound the error of the estimate in case that in the sample given to the estimate the values of the independent and the dependent variables are pertubated by some arbitrary procedure. The bounds are applied to analyze regression-based Monte Carlo methods for pricing American options in case of errors in modelling the price process.     

A configurational approach to transnational families: Who and where is one's family in the case of mobile older adults?

This article introduces a novel transnational family configuration (TNFC) approach to study the diversity of family forms across kinship and geographical boundaries. Integrating theoretical insights from family sociology and transnational family research, it examines contemporary families as personal networks that encompass both subjectively identified and potentially transnationally dispersed kin and non-kin members. Drawing on original survey data and in-depth interviews with adults aged 55+ living in Switzerland, it compares migrants’ and non-migrants’ personal family networks. The results indicate that these networks are both diverse and transnational. Although there is a strong correlation between transnationality and migration background, other life-course factors also contribute to the development of transnational family networks beyond the scope of migrant ‘exceptionalism’. By advocating the adoption of a TNFC approach to the study of contemporary families, in diverse population groups and various cultural contexts, this study paves the way for future research in this area.     

A fuzzy robust regression approach applied to bedload transport data

Fuzzy least-square regression can be very sensitive to unusual data (e.g., outliers). In this article, we describe how to fit an alternative robust-regression estimator in fuzzy environment, which attempts to identify and ignore unusual data. The proposed approach concerns classical robust regression and estimation methods that are insensitive to outliers. In this regard, based on the least trimmed square estimation method, an estimation procedure is proposed for determining the coefficients of the fuzzy regression model for crisp input-fuzzy output data. The investigated fuzzy regression model is applied to bedload transport data forecasting suspended load by discharge based on a real world data. The accuracy of the proposed method is compared with the well-known fuzzy least-square regression model. The comparison results reveal that the fuzzy robust regression model performs better than the other models in suspended load estimation for the particular dataset. This comparison is done based on a similarity measure between fuzzy sets. The proposed model is general and can be used for modeling natural phenomena whose available observations are reported as imprecise rather than crisp.     

中国系统性金融风险对宏观经济的影响研究

基于2007年1月至2017年12月月度数据,本文首先选取金融机构极值风险、金融体系间的传染效应、金融市场的波动性和不稳定性、流动性和信用风险4个层面的14个代表性指标测度了系统性金融风险;然后运用分位数回归度量了单个系统性风险指标对宏观经济的影响;最后运用偏最小二乘分位数回归法构建一个系统性金融风险综合指标进一步实证分析系统性金融风险对宏观经济的影响。研究结果表明：①单个系统性金融风险指数中机构极值风险类别下的指标对宏观经济的影响最大,其中金融体系巨灾风险指数影响效果最显著;②运用偏最小二乘分位数回归构造的系统性金融风险综合指标较之单个系统性金融风险指标,能够更稳健地反映系统性金融风险对宏观经济的影响状况;③从测度效果来看,单个系统性风险指标和系统性金融风险综合指标在下尾分布（0.2分位数）的结果明显优于中间分布（0.5分位数）和上尾分布（0.8分位数）。     

Risk Pooling Advantages of Manufacturing Network Configuration

The decision of a firm to set up a plant network is influenced by a number of factors, including demand fluctuations across its portfolio of products, logistics costs, and service level requirements. Product plant networks offer the benefits of consolidated production and reduced transshipment costs; on the other hand, process plant networks allow intensive dedication to process expertise and economies of scale. In this paper, we show that, aside from these benefits, process plant networks offer significant risk pooling advantages under a wide range of conditions. We analytically demonstrate that, even without accounting for economies of scale advantages, firms may prefer the process plant network configuration due to the risk pooling benefits offered.     

高水平数字政府建设的影响因素及推进路径

数字政府建设作为推进政府治理体系与治理能力现代化的重要战略举措,不仅是简单的技术变革问题,更是技术与治理二元叠加裂变后的信息化技术与组织、环境的深度融合发展问题。现有研究缺乏对数字政府建设差异化路径的影响因素的深入探究。以TOE为分析框架,采用NCA和fsQCA相结合的方法,从组态视角深入挖掘中国31个省(市、区)高水平数字政府建设的影响因素及推进路径。研究表明：政策驱动是数字政府建设的必要条件,是数字政府建设与发展的制度保障;高水平的数字政府建设路径存在差异化,不同影响因素的适宜组合可推动高水平数字政府建设;在特定资源要素组合下,完善技术能力、加强财政供给能力与政策驱动是快速推动数字政府建设必不可缺的条件。其研究有助于深化中国数字政府建设背后复杂的因果机制,为因地制宜打造差异化的高水平数字政府提供借鉴。     

关于语言经济原则的反思

语言经济原则是指导人类行为的一条根本性准则。经济性的语言节省了交流时间,提高了交际效率,满足了交际双方的省力需求。省力的动机不仅存在于发话人的言语生成过程中,也存在于受话人的言语理解过程中。单方面强调自身的省力欲望,不仅会降低交际效率,还可能导致交际失误,所以应注意语言经济原则的负相关性,优化配置语言资源。在实际的言语交际中,语言经济原则存在诸多不足,如省略引起交际失误,替代、指代带来交际障碍,共享知识的缺省导致交际失败。只有在语言能够充分明晰地表达意义和情感的前提下,才能使用语言经济原则。     

旅游运输通道的系统分析与优化对策

随着旅游业的快速发展,为了提高旅游服务水平与竞争力,大量旅游交通设施开始规划建设,在旅游城市及旅游詈点间逐步形成了旅游运输通道。在定义旅游运输通道特征与功能的基础上,分析了旅游运输通道内各种运输方式的竞争性与协调性,并建立了游客的出行方式选择模型。对旅游运输通道的系统结构与配置进行了探讨,并提出了具体的旅游运输通道系统优化对策。     

三权混合配置制度及启示——美国联邦独立管制机构为证

美国联邦独立管制委员会修正了传统的西方三权分立制度,是一个具有行政权、准立法权和准司法权独特机构,独立于美国行政部门。美国联邦独立管制机构的制度在美国兴起现象及其缘由,立法、行政和司法三权混合配置及权力运行的限制,以及所产生的影响对我国管制制度建立和完善有启示。