原子外层空轨道相对最稳定顺序及周期性规则

本文提出原予外层空轨道相对稳定性可作为屯子填充的粗略判据;给出由中性原子轨道能数据直接导出原子外层轨道相对最稳定顺序的图表及周期性规则;用以简明、清晰,合理地推引解释元素基组态和懈释元素周期律。提出在中心势场模型基础上推引全部元素基组态的方法。     

Bayes minimax estimation of a bernoulli p in a restricted parameter space

In many estimation problems the parameter of interest is known,a priori, to belong to a proper subspace of the natural parameter space. Although useful in practice this type of additional information can lead to surprising theoretical difficulties. In this paper the problem of minimax estimation of a Bernoulli pwhen pis restricted to a symmetric subinterval of the natural parameter space is considered. For the sample sizes n = 1,2,3, and 4 least favorable priors with finite support are provided and the corresponding Bayes estimators are shown to be minimax. For n = 5 and 6 the usual constant risk minimax estimator is shown to be the Bayes minimax estimator corresponding to a least favorable prior with finite support, provided the restriction on the parameter space is not too tight.     

Bootstrapping time series models

This paper surveys recent development in bootstrap methods and the modifications needed for their applicability in time series models. The paper discusses some guidelines for empirical researchers in econometric analysis of time series. Different sampling schemes for bootstrap data generation and different forms of bootstrap test statistics are discussed. The paper also discusses the applicability of direct bootstrapping of data in dynamic models and cointegrating regression models. It is argued that bootstrapping residuals is the preferable approach. The bootstrap procedures covered include the recursive bootstrap, the moving block bootstrap and the stationary bootstrap.     

On a sequential subset selection procedure for the least probable multinomial cell

This paper studies a sequential procedure R for selecting a random size subset that contains the multinomial cell which has the smallest cell probability. The stopping rule of the proposed procedure R is the composite of the stopping rules of curtailed sampling, inverse sampling, and the Ramey-Alam sampling. A reslut on the worst configuration is shown and it is employed in computing the procedure parameters that guarantee certain probability requirements. Tables of these procedure parameters, the corresponding probability of correct selection, the expected sample size, and the expected subset size are given for comparison purpose.     

Parametric Proportional Odds Frailty Models

We define a parametric proportional odds frailty model to describe lifetime data incorporating heterogeneity between individuals. An unobserved individual random effect, called frailty, acts multiplicatively on the odds of failure by time t. We investigate fitting by maximum likelihood and by least squares. For the latter, the parametric survivor function is fitted to the nonparametric Kaplan–Meier estimate at the observed failure times. Bootstrap standard errors and confidence intervals are obtained for the least squares estimates. The models are applied successfully to simulated data and to two real data sets. Least squares estimates appear to have smaller bias than maximum likelihood.     

马克思主义民族观中国化与新中国构建形式选择

中国共产党关于国家政权构建方式的设想和选择与其民族理论及其实践紧密相联。中华民族追求独立平等的斗争是马克思主义民族观中国化的起点。中国共产党将民族平等作为我国民族问题的根本性原则,成功地创造了民族地区政权的组织结构,为新中国国家政权构建形式的最后抉择奠定了坚实的基础,并影响到我国外交的基本原则。可以说,中国共产党在新中国构建前后围绕着民族和国家构建形式的问题,发展出了一套完备的、成熟的、科学的理论形态,创造出了对中华民族和全国各族人民有深远影响的政治制度。     

MC 模式下基于顾客需求的产品配置优化分析

以大规模定制(MC) 模式为背景,论述了基于单个顾客的定制需求,对“理想产品”进行配 置优化的一个思路. 本文论述MC 模式的基本概念和思想、以及定制产品配置优化的含义及意 义,介绍了一种基于QFD 分析结果. 运用TOPSIS 法,提出了对顾客所需“理想产品”进行优化 配置的思路,并给出一个示例,验证“思路”的合理性.     

基于大型单件小批生产的MBOM增量接收研究

针对大型单件小批生产企业边设计、边生产、边修改,以及存在客户定制、变换件配置的特点,提出了通过PPDM对客户进订单行技术配置产生面向订单的PBOM-O,ERP及时对PBOM-O进行增量接收生成MBOM的解决方案,并对技术配置和增量接收过程进行了阐述,从而实现PDM/CAPP与ERP的紧密集成。     

影响与误读——马尔克斯、博尔赫斯与中国当代新潮作家的时间塑形

受南美作家马尔克斯的循环时间观和博尔赫斯迷宫时间的影响，中国当代新潮作家开始热衷于时间的“炼金术”，他们在时间的循环往复、时间的空间化和立体化方面作了许多大胆的尝试和实验，并获得了一定的成功。然而，由于没有哲学、美学乃至宗教信念作为思想支撑，新潮作家始终没有形成自己的时间意识，他们的时间塑形仅仅停留在技术层面，最终沦落为操纵时间的游戏。     

Incidence-based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life-tables

Summary.  Will the UK's aging population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Life expectancy of healthy people represents the expected number of years of healthy well-being that a life-table cohort would experience if age-specific rates of mortality and disability prevailed throughout the cohort's lifetime. Robust estimation of this life expectancy is thus essential for examining whether additional years of life are spent in good health and whether life expectancy is increasing faster than the decline of rates of disability. The paper examines a means of generating estimates of life expectancy for people who are healthy and unhealthy for the UK that are consistent with exogenous population mortality data. The method takes population transition matrices and adjusts these in a statistically coherent way so as to render them consistent with aggregate life-tables.