Nonparametric density estimation for multivariate bounded data

We propose a new nonparametric estimator for the density function of multivariate bounded data. As frequently observed in practice, the variables may be partially bounded (e.g. nonnegative) or completely bounded (e.g. in the unit interval). In addition, the variables may have a point mass. We reduce the conditions on the underlying density to a minimum by proposing a nonparametric approach. By using a gamma, a beta, or a local linear kernel (also called boundary kernels), in a product kernel, the suggested estimator becomes simple in implementation and robust to the well known boundary bias problem. We investigate the mean integrated squared error properties, including the rate of convergence, uniform strong consistency and asymptotic normality. We establish consistency of the least squares cross-validation method to select optimal bandwidth parameters. A detailed simulation study investigates the performance of the estimators. Applications using lottery and corporate finance data are provided.     

基于农民权益保护的倾斜性权利配置研究——以利益和利益机制为视角

在当前社会权利配置过程中,农民群体由于自身的弱势性以及其他外部社会原因导致其正当利益得不到有效的保护。然而,社会公平正义以及农民的正当利益为对农民进行倾斜性权力配置提供了内在的法律基础,使其有存在和发展的必要性。现阶段农民增收坚持的“多予、少取、放活”的方针已经远远不能够满足农民利益诉求。要实现真正意义上的农民利益保护必须坚持“促生原则”,即通过组织促生、经济促生和主体促生来提高农民在利益博弈中的力量,实现农民的主体作用,使农民以自己的力量来保护自身的正当利益,从而真正实现农民权益的保护。     

晚清练兵处述论

练兵处是清末新军编练的领导机关,它的设立其肇因厥为两途：其一,从国内而言,清政府鉴于地方实力派的纷起,中央权威的旁落,有必要统一事权,统一规划,加强中央集权;其二,日俄战争爆发后国际形势极度紧张,清朝中央和地方必须从军事层面考虑应对措施缓解危机。练兵处的成立有力地推动了清末的军事变革,成为中国陆军近代化的重要一环。然而,如果我们客观地评价练兵处的作用和地位,就不能不提到练兵处内部的角力和争斗以及中央练兵处和地方的矛盾,它们是削弱其绩效发挥的重要因素,并最终对清末政局的走向产生了深刻的影响。     

我国卷烟消费结构及主要经济影响因素分析——以福建漳州市为例

利用偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)对漳州卷烟消费数据和影响卷烟消费的主要经济因素进行了分析。结果表明:目前漳州卷烟消费中,一、二类卷烟增长较快,三、四类卷烟是主要的卷烟消费类型,五类卷烟逐步减少。预测模型对自变量的累计信息利用率达到了99.2%,同时能够解释因变量99.6%的变异信息,累计交叉统计有效性达到0.99,预测值与观测值组成的数据点都在回归图的对角线附近分布,且回归系数达到0.9966,该模型的拟合效果较好。居民消费价格基定指数对卷烟消费增长影响最大,随着GDP增长和各产业快速发展,以及人民生活水平的提高,卷烟消费需求将会增加,适当的提高卷烟零售价格可以减少卷烟消费量。     

甘肃地域文化对中小企业的制约与促动作用分析

改革开放以来,由于中小企业发展的滞后,甘肃成为经济上的落伍者.其中一个重要的原因是甘肃地域文化对中小企业萌芽和发展的阻滞.然而,文化作为一个系统,其中必然蕴含着有利于经济发展的因素.因此,认识和摒弃甘肃地域文化中制约中小企业发展的阻滞因素,研究和发掘其中有利的积极因素,是推动甘肃中小企业萌芽和发展的重要途径.     

机遇、跨越与创新——试论加快西部大开发

本文以邓小平理论和十六大精神为指导,论述了在西部大开发中,必须与时俱进,强化创新意识,坚持走创新之路,才能抓住千载难逢的历史性机遇,实现社会经济的跨越式大发展。     

辨识被测凸轮轴安装偏心量的对径谐波法

凸轮轴在检测仪上的安装偏心,影响凸轮轴上凸轮廓形尺寸的测量精度。本文提出一种辨识被测凸轮轴安装偏心量的对径谐波法,证明了用对径谐波法所辨识的偏心量符合最小二乘准则。此法在实际测量中获得了满意的效果     

Basic structure of the asymptotic theory in dynamic nonlineaerco nometric models, part i: consistency and approximation concepts

This is the first of two papers that provide an expository discussion of the basic structure of the asymptotic theory of M-estimators in dynamic nonlinear models and a revlew of the literature. In this paper we discuss consistency,uniform laws of large numbers and develop a new framework for laws of large numbers for dependent and heterogeneous processes, encompassing the theory of stochastically stable as well as near epoch dependent processes. This framework results in simplified catalogues of sufficient conditions for consistency. The second paper, Potscher and Prucha (1990b), deals with asymptotic distribution theory.     

Testing for unit roots in time series with nearly deterministic seasonal variation

This paper addresses the problem of testing for the presence of unit autoregressive roots in seasonal time series with negatively correlated moving average components. For such cases, many of the commonly used tests are known to have exact sizes much higher than their nominal significance level. We propose modifications of available test procedures that are based on suitably prewhitened data and feasible generalized least squares estimators. Monte Carlo experiments show that such modifications are successful in reducing size distortions in samples of moderate size.     

Simple least squares estimation versus best linear unbiased prediction

Necessary and sufficient conditions are developed for the simple least squares estimator to coincide with the best linear unbiased predictor. The conditions obtained are valid for a general linear model and are generalizations of the condition given by Watson (1972). Also, as a preliminary result, a new representation of the best linear unbiased predictor is established.