Planning in firms as an interactive process

This paper discusses the possible uses of economic analysis for strategic planning decisions in firms. It proposes an approach which emphasizes the role of common knowledge for decentralized parallel decision processes. Planning is interpreted as an interactive process among a set of agents who use a plan to formalize a theory of action and an invalidating procedure. In the course of action the agents are supposed to cope with uncertainty as long as the chosen theory remains justified. This approach has strong connections with some recent trends in managerial economics and in particular with the current work in the production sphere which similarly illuminates the role of common knowledge through objective physical flows to promote global efficiency of the firm.     

Statistical issues in studying the relative importance of body mass index,waist circumference,waist hip ratio and waist stature ratio to predict type 2 diabetes

Systematic and appropriate statistical analysis is needed to examine the relative performance of anthropometrical indices, viz. body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist hip ratio (WHR) and waist stature ratio (WSR) for predicting type 2 diabetes. Using information on socio-demographic, anthropometric and biochemical variables from 2148 males, we examined collinearity and non-linearity among the predictors before studying the association between anthropometric indices and type 2 diabetes. The variable involving in collinearity was removed from further analysis, and the relative importance of BMI, WC and WHR was examined by logistic regression analysis. To avoid non-interpretable odds ratios (ORs), cut point theory is used. Optimal cut points are derived and tested for significance. Multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) algorithm is applied to reconcile non-linearity. As expected, WSR and WC were collinear with WHR and BMI. Since WSR was jointly as well as independently collinear, it was dropped from further analysis. The OR for WHR could not be interpreted meaningfully. Cut point theory was adopted. Deciles emerged as the optimal cut point. MFP recognized non-linearity effects on the outcome. Multicollinearity among the anthropometric indices was examined. Optimal cut points were identified and used to study the relative ORs. On the basis of the results of analysis, MFP is recommended to accommodate non-linearity among the predictors. WHR is relatively more important and significant than WC and BMI.     

国际视野下环太湖地区发展高端产业突破点思考

环太湖地区作为我国先行发达地区,发展高端产业进行产业转型升级是其经济社会可持续发展的必然选择,然而从其所处的发展阶段和国际分工链的位置来看,面临着处于既有国际产业链最底端,整体科技水平和发达国家比较相对落后较大,高科技、复合型、领军式人才相对匮乏以及地区内相关和支持产业还不够发达等艰巨挑战,但该地区三十多年的经济发展也积累了诸如制度的组织优势业已成型,强大的综合经济实力和丰富的应用性技术工作人员储备等发展优势。因此中国环太湖地区可以通过加大政府政策引导,加快对领军式人才的引进和培养,支持科技创新,加快对传统制造业的技术改造升级,力推现代服务业发展和对自有自主品牌的培育运营等途径为发展高端产业找到突破点。     

Selecting logistic populations using the sample medians

This paper is concerned primarily with subset selection procedures based on the sample mediansof logistic populations. A procedure is given which chooses a nonempty subset from among kindependent logistic populations, having a common known variance, so that the populations with thelargest location parameter is contained in the subset with a pre‐specified probability. Theconstants required to apply the median procedure with small sample sizes (≤= 19) are tabulated and can also be used to construct simultaneous confidence intervals. Asymptotic formulae are provided for application with larger sample sizes. It is shown that, under certain situations, rules based on the median are substantially more efficient than analogous procedures based either on sample means or on the sum of joint ranks.     

On the Bivariate Kummer-Beta Type IV Distribution

Recent studies have shown the X-bar control chart with variable sampling interval detects shifts in the process mean faster than the traditional X-bar chart. These studies are usually based on the assumption that the process data are independently and normally distributed. However, many situations in practice violate these assumptions. In this study, a methodology is developed to economically design a variable sampling interval X-bar control chart that takes into consideration correlated non normal sample data. An example is provided to illustrate the solution procedure. A sensitivity analysis on the input parameters (i.e., the cost and the process parameters) is performed taking into account the non normality and the correlation on the optimal design of the chart.     

A backward procedure for change-point detection with applications to copy number variation detection

Change-point detection regains much attention recently for analyzing array or sequencing data for copy number variation (CNV) detection. In such applications, the true signals are typically very short and buried in the long data sequence, which makes it challenging to identify the variations efficiently and accurately. In this article, we propose a new change-point detection method, a backward procedure, which is not only fast and simple enough to exploit high-dimensional data but also performs very well for detecting short signals. Although motivated by CNV detection, the backward procedure is generally applicable to assorted change-point problems that arise in a variety of scientific applications. It is illustrated by both simulated and real CNV data that the backward detection has clear advantages over other competing methods, especially when the true signal is short. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 366–385; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

试论范晓的语法观

范晓对语法理论、词类区分、汉语动词、短语、句子等问题都有较为深入的研究。其语法观内容丰富,观点新颖,有不少创造性的观点,在中国语法思想史上起到了承前启后的作用。     

中国近代经济思想的初步转换：晚清重商思想述论

＂重商＂是研讨晚清社会转型的一个关键词,它不应放在现代语境中来理解,以传统之＂商＂来＂格义＂近代经济社会的新事物赋予晚清＂重商＂思想以丰富的＂政治经济学＂内涵,其中包含着重商—重工、观念—制度、单维—系统的演进逻辑,尝试从结构性制约探寻富强之道开出了中国经济思想的近代面向。重商思想试图推动晚清经济社会的近代化进程,但封建体制的顽固性未使清政府适时通过主动的制度转换来协调社会转型,近代工商业社会的发育和转变,未能跨出划时代的步伐。     

TOA折叠平面特征点无监督聚类

为提高雷达脉冲分选效率以及将分选和辐射源识别统一完成,探索仅在时域进行重频分选与辐射源特征提取.将雷达脉冲序列的到达时间(TOA)在时间上进行折叠,使得交错在一起的雷达脉冲序列在TOA折叠平面上所形成点迹图.不同雷达由于重频特征不同使得属于一部雷达的脉冲在TOA折叠平面上的点迹形成较强的规律性.文中应用改进的方法通过对点迹的聚类来完成对上述规律的提取,实现将雷达脉冲分选和重频特性识别统一完成.     

Estimation of Variance Function in Heteroscedastic Regression Models by Generalized Coiflets

A wavelet approach is presented to estimate the variance function in heteroscedastic nonparametric regression model. The initial variance estimates are obtained as squared weighted sums of neighboring observations. The initial estimator of a smooth variance function is improved by means of wavelet smoothers under the situation that the samples at the dyadic points are not available. Since the traditional wavelet system for the variance function estimation is not appropriate in this situation, we demonstrate that the choice of the wavelet system is significant to have better performance. This is accomplished by choosing a suitable wavelet system known as the generalized coiflets. We conduct extensive simulations to evaluate finite sample performance of our method. We also illustrate our method using a real dataset.