Many-to-one comparison of nonlinear growth curves for Washington's Red Delicious apple

In this article, we are interested in comparing growth curves for the Red Delicious apple in several locations to that of a reference site. Although such multiple comparisons are common for linear models, statistical techniques for nonlinear models are not prolific. We theoretically derive a test statistic, considering the issues of sample size and design points. Under equal sample sizes and same design points, our test statistic is based on the maximum of an equi-correlated multivariate chi-square distribution. Under unequal sample sizes and design points, we derive a general correlation structure, and then utilize the multivariate normal distribution to numerically compute critical points for the maximum of the multivariate chi-square. We apply this statistical technique to compare the growth of Red Delicious apples at six locations to a reference site in the state of Washington in 2009. Finally, we perform simulations to verify the performance of our proposed procedure for Type I error and marginal power. Our proposed method performs well in regard to both.     

试论大学英语听力教学

听力教学是大学英语教学中最重要的环节之一。但在实际教学中,大学英语听力教与学中均存在着一些问题。对此问题进行了探讨,并提出了听力教师应注重应用提高听力教学的三种基本方法及在听力教学过程中应着重培养学生的三种能力,以求达到较好的听力教学效果。     

论略萨小说《叙事人》的双文化视角

巴尔加斯·略萨的小说《叙事人》中有两个视角:"巴尔加斯·略萨"的视角和"叙事人"的视角。这两个视角分别代表了西方文化与原始印第安文化两种文化眼光。双文化视角的选择是由作家的文化意图决定的,体现了他对文化的关注,引出了文学关系着一个民族文化的传承乃至民族存亡的重大主题。因此,《叙事人》对于略萨小说的文化内涵研究意义重大。     

陆九渊教育心理思想的基本观点与学习心理思想

陆九渊的“心学”体系中包含有丰富的心理学思想,其中教育心理思想的基本观点,是“本心”论与“做人”论;学习心理思想,论及学习的意义、过程、原则与方法。     

Reconstructing the history of forest fire frequency: Identifying hazard rate change points using the bayes information criterion

A problem in model selection, namely the identification of multiple change points for a piece‐wise constant hazard rate, is discussed. A methodology using the Bayes Information Criterion is developed in an overdispersed survival model (with corresponding quasi‐likelihood function). The technique is used to identify changes in the historical frequency of forest fire. It is applied to two datasets derived from time‐since‐fire maps in the Canadian Rockies.     

读常见书札记

文章指出古今著述中存在的一些疑误之处 ,并加以辨析。     

任意Banach空间强伪压缩映射不动点的迭代逼近

利用正规对偶映射的定义，给出了任意Banach空间Lipschitz强伪压缩映射不动点的Ishikawa迭代收敛定理。该定理不仅推广了已知结果，而且还简化了目前相应结果的证明。     

Model robustness of Hoel-Levine optimal designs

In extrapolating a function which is close to being a polynimial the least squares estimator combined with the Hoel-Levine optimal design is shown to perform well in terms of mean square error when compared with an optimal spline extrapolator.     

Reference points,loss aversion,and contingent values for auto safety

This article is concerned with the possible role of reference points and loss aversion (as suggested by prospect theory) in subjects' judgments about the value of increments and decrements in automobile safety. The contingent valuation method is employed in two experiments, both of which consider subjects' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for increased safety and compensation demanded (CD) for decreased safety in hypothetical new vehicle purchases. The results establish that disparities exist in subjects' WTP and CD values for the same increment of auto safety, even for a close-to-market context such as hypothetical new vehicle purchases. The results also indicate that evaluations can be manipulated by changing the perception of the reference point: losses can be recast as forgone gains and forgone gains as losses, altering (or even eliminating) differences between WTP and CD values.I would like to thank Mark Kamlet, Greg Fischer, and Granger Morgan for advice and help in structuring the research for the first experiment; Paul Slovic and Jack Knetsch for suggestions regarding the structure and content of the second experiment; Robin Gregory and two anonymous referees for insightful comments on earlier drafts; and the subjects who provided their time in the two experiments. Michael McNickle provided able research assistance for the second experiment. The survey for the first experiment was partially supported by the Program for Technology and Society at Carnegie Mellon University, with funds from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.     

Comparison of Sensitivity Analysis Methods Based on Applications to a Food Safety Risk Assessment Model

Sensitivity analysis (SA) methods are a valuable tool for identifying critical control points (CCPs), which is one of the important steps in the hazard analysis and CCP approach that is used to ensure safe food. There are many SA methods used across various disciplines. Furthermore, food safety process risk models pose challenges because they often are highly nonlinear, contain thresholds, and have discrete inputs. Therefore, it is useful to compare and evaluate SA methods based upon applications to an example food safety risk model. Ten SA methods were applied to a draft Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) risk assessment model developed by the Food and Drug Administration. The model was modified so that all inputs were independent. Rankings of key inputs from different methods were compared. Inputs such as water temperature, number of oysters per meal, and the distributional assumption for the unrefrigerated time were the most important inputs, whereas time on water, fraction of pathogenic Vp, and the distributional assumption for the weight of oysters were the least important inputs. Most of the methods gave a similar ranking of key inputs even though the methods differed in terms of being graphical, mathematical, or statistical, accounting for individual effects or joint effect of inputs, and being model dependent or model independent. A key recommendation is that methods be further compared by application on different and more complex food safety models. Model independent methods, such as ANOVA, mutual information index, and scatter plots, are expected to be more robust than others evaluated.