社会保障覆盖率对农村居民消费的影响研究

农村居民消费支出受社会保障覆盖率的影响,且随收入的增加而增加。提高社会保障覆盖率能减少农村居民消费支出对微观保障水平的依赖程度;养老保险覆盖率每提高1%,农村居民消费支出会增加3233元。微观保障水平的边际消费倾向为1.043,而初次分配收入的边际消费倾向则为0.520。但保障覆盖率对城镇居民消费支出影响较小,居民消费支出的提高,主要依赖于初次分配收入的增加。当前应以政府财政转移支付为依托,首先扩大农村养老保险覆盖率,然后再提高保障水平。     

试论湘西民族地区交通经济带的评价与构建

本文从交通经济带的传统构成要素入手,对湘西民族地区交通基础设施、城镇综合实力、产业状况等进行了评价,提出了以民族文化为纽带构筑民族地区交通经济带的模式,认为该地区可以形成一纵一横两条沿路型经济子带,并提供具体设计思路。     

Brazil and the Shifting Consensus on Development Co‐operation: Salutary Diversions from the ‘Aid‐effectiveness’ Trail?

Emerging economies emphasise horizontality and mutual opportunity in their relationship with developing countries, promising an alternative to the failings of traditional North‐South co‐operation. This article draws on research on Brazil's technical co‐operation and its health dimension to compare the Brazilian model with established aid‐effectiveness' principles and to discuss the appropriateness of the latter as standards against which to appraise emerging donors' co‐operation. The analysis shows that, despite progress towards greater dialogue between traditional and emerging donors, the ‘aid‐effectiveness’ framework still falls short of capturing the idiosyncrasies of South‐South co‐operation and therefore offers an incomplete international standard on how best to conduct development co‐operation.     

工业机器人使用与制造业就业：来自中国的证据

本文使用我国2006-2017年制造业分行业数据,实证研究了工业机器人使用对于制造业就业的影响。结果显示,工业机器人使用对制造业行业存在就业效应,其中对岗位数量有显著的负向冲击,工业机器人保有量每上升1%,就业岗位减少约4.6%;对工资水平的影响整体上不明显。在考虑了劳动力市场的动态调节后,工业机器人使用对就业岗位的负面影响仍然存在,并随着“工业4.0”概念的提出有所增强,对工资水平的影响则表现出时间异质性。进一步地,本文尝试使用工具变量解决潜在的内生性问题,结果稳健。最后,文章还探讨了工业机器人就业效应的行业异质性。本文的发现有助于正确认清“机器换人”对我国制造业就业市场的全面影响,并为引导人工智能技术的发展和确保就业稳定提供相应的政策建议。     

Selection of Single Sampling Attributes Plan for Given Acceptable Quality Level and Limiting Quality Level Involving Minimum Risks

A table and a procedure are given for finding the single sampling attributes plan involving minimum sum of producer's and consumer's risks for specified Acceptable Quality Level and Limiting Quality Level.     

Working‐age people with disability and labour force participation: Geographic variations in Australia

To examine geographic variation in labour force participation rate (LFPR) of working‐age people with disability in Australia and associated factors. This study uses Australian Census 2016 data at Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) and engages multiple linear regression to explore the relationship between the dependent variable,= LFPR of people with disability, and diverse independent variables that reflect collective characteristics of people with disability and their non‐disabled peers within SA2. While LFPRs for people with disability varied greatly by SA2, people with disability had considerably lower LFPR than their non‐disabled peers in all areas. The LFPRs tended to be higher in SA2s with higher percentages of people with disability who had completed year 12 or gained post‐school education, with higher household income, and where a higher proportion of people with disability mainly spoke English at home. These results indicate that where people live matters. Geographic variation in LFPR for people with disability is associated with geographic variation in their educational attainment and other social and community characteristics of the areas in which they live. This study contributes towards gaining a more sophisticated and nuanced understanding of the factors that influence LFPR of people with disability in relation to their local community environment.     

当代土家族社会结构的变迁

本文撷取所有制、行业、职业、性别、收入、教育、声望等属性 ,从水平分化和垂直分化两个角度 ,对当代土家族社会结构的变迁进行了定量分析。通过分析指出 ,当代土家族社会结构实际已处于整体转型之中 ,但社会分化程度相对较低 ,并未带来社会失衡和振荡 ;进而指出 ,这种分析是未来土家族社会结构调整之政策取向的基础     

老年人消费状况及其性别差异——以浙江省为例

在浙江省,无论城乡,老年人的消费状况均存在着显著的性别差异.表现在:女性老年人的月消费总支出低于男性;“饮食/食品”和“居住(房屋水电)”等最基本的生活消费支出比例往往高于男性;医疗月均费用少于男性,而医疗费占总消费支出的比例却高于男性;有人情往来的比例比男性略高,而支出均值却比男性低;对子女经济支持的均值低于男性、承受力弱于男性;低消费人群的比例显著大于男性,而中、高消费人群的比例却明显低于男性;对月最低生活费的评价均值低于男性;持较低评价值的比例多于男性,持较高评价值的比例少于男性;在经济上更感到拮据和困难等等.这些情况均表明:浙江省女性老年人的消费水平显著低于男性老年人.同时,由恩格尔系数反映出,女性老年人的生活水平也不如男性老年人.这就再次说明了:改善女性老年人的生活状况应该“成为政策行动的一个优先领域”.     

Parameter Estimation Robust to Low-Frequency Contamination

We provide methods to robustly estimate the parameters of stationary ergodic short-memory time series models in the potential presence of additive low-frequency contamination. The types of contamination covered include level shifts (changes in mean) and monotone or smooth time trends, both of which have been shown to bias parameter estimates toward regions of persistence in a variety of contexts. The estimators presented here minimize trimmed frequency domain quasi-maximum likelihood (FDQML) objective functions without requiring specification of the low-frequency contaminating component. When proper sample size-dependent trimmings are used, the FDQML estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, asymptotically eliminating the presence of any spurious persistence. These asymptotic results also hold in the absence of additive low-frequency contamination, enabling the practitioner to robustly estimate model parameters without prior knowledge of whether contamination is present. Popular time series models that fit into the framework of this article include autoregressive moving average (ARMA), stochastic volatility, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. We explore the finite sample properties of the trimmed FDQML estimators of the parameters of some of these models, providing practical guidance on trimming choice. Empirical estimation results suggest that a large portion of the apparent persistence in certain volatility time series may indeed be spurious. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

On Level Crossing Analysis of Queues

In this note we introduce a new level crossing analysis and using it derive an integral equation for the steady state waiting time in the GI/G/1 Queue. For the GI/M/1 queue we derive the rates of up- and down-crossings of the virtual delay process and two integral equations, one for the steady state time spent in the system and the other for the steady state waiting time in the queue. Also, the steady state probability distributions of the time spent in the system and the waiting time in the queue are obtained by solving these integral equations.