Conditional variance estimation in heteroscedastic regression models

First, we propose a new method for estimating the conditional variance in heteroscedasticity regression models. For heavy tailed innovations, this method is in general more efficient than either of the local linear and local likelihood estimators. Secondly, we apply a variance reduction technique to improve the inference for the conditional variance. The proposed methods are investigated through their asymptotic distributions and numerical performances.     

地方利益、区域经济一体化合作与福祉

地方利益包括地方政府官员的利益与地方公利,其中,地方政府官员利益居于核心层并发挥基础性、关键性作用.地方政府官员的利益又包括物质利益与非物质利益,非物质利益中的政治利益至关重要.地方利益引致地方政府行为变异,导致区域经济不合作,进而造成福祉损失.只有从地方利益入手,准确清晰地界定并规范和约束地方利益,并进行相应的制度创新,才能真正推动我国区域经济一体化合作,增进福祉.     

The City of Saskatoon’s Local Area Planning Program: A Case Study

The City of Saskatoon’s Local Area Planning (LAP) Program is a community-based approach to developing comprehensive neighbourhood plans. In order to achieve sustainable and implementable Local Area Plans (LAPs), the City of Saskatoon has been using innovative methods of collaborative decision-making to engage citizens. The program has been recognized nationally by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities for demonstrating innovative approaches to citizen engagement in Sustainable Community Planning. A total of eight LAPs have been adopted by City Council and 212 recommendations have been approved, with 101 of these recommendations being completed, 71 currently in progress and 40 to be determined. Great strides have been made to implement the LAPs by allocating resources for coordinating implementation, working with communities, and for implementing the various recommendations. In addition, over 1,000 people representing various interests have participated in one or more LAP Committee or implementation meetings. Through this participation, partnerships have been formed, program and service delivery has been improved, and most importantly, communities have taken ownership of their plans. After completing eight LAPs, the LAP communities, City Council and city planners have felt the need to measure ongoing changes and progress in the LAP communities. In recognition of this, the City of Saskatoon’s City Planning Branch will be working with LAP communities, the Community-University Institute for Social Research (CUISR) and other stakeholders to develop a framework for statistically measuring changes in LAP communities and to monitor “Neighbourhood Success Factors”. The Neighbourhood Success Factors will work to detect serious socio-economic conditions before they reach a point of crisis. This paper will first describe the LAP Program before reviewing the proposed framework for statistically measuring changes in Saskatoon’s neighbourhoods.

Unequal Partners? Local Government Reorganization and the Voluntary Sector

British local government has recently undergone its most far-reaching reorganization for twenty-five years. The impact of this reorganization was considerable within local authorities but it also substantially affected other organizations with which they worked at a local level. This paper explores the perspectives of voluntary sector organizations involved in social care: a set of actors which, prior to reorganization, had been encouraged by central and local government, through notions of partnership and through community care legislation, to undertake more direct roles in service delivery, consultation and strategic planning. During the consultative period prior to reorganization, many voluntary organizations reported that they had been marginal to the process. Reflecting on the process of reorganization itself, many voluntary organization respondents commented that it had been disruptive and provoked considerable anxiety. Post-reorganization, voluntary organizations felt that rebuilding of relationships was necessary and that the promise of partnership had meant little in practice at a time of potential crisis for local.     

A play for rurality – Modernization versus local autonomy

It is common to understand the governing of rural space as the outcome of a conflict between some romantic protectors of a lost past on the one hand, and the people who worry about creating economic values on the other. However, the power to shape the rural should not only be searched for in the open struggle between protectors and developers, but also should be analysed at the level of discourse, in the play between discourses about how to deal with the rural. In this paper I therefore present a modernist discourse and demonstrate how taken-for-granted truths about the rural – its history, its present and its future – are made possible by this discourse. Secondly, I will reveal how rurality takes on a different meaning in an alternative to the modernist discourse, emphasizing local and regional autonomy. In demonstrating that rurality is contingent upon a play between these two discourses, I want to provide some new insights into an important force behind the persistence of ideas about rurality in Norway.     

Developing spatial inequalities in carbon appropriation: A sociological analysis of changing local emissions across the United States

This study examines an overlooked dynamic in sociological research on greenhouse gas emissions: how local areas appropriate the global carbon cycle for use and exchange purposes as they develop. Drawing on theories of place and space, we hypothesize that development differentially drives and spatially decouples use- and exchange-oriented emissions at the local level. To test our hypotheses, we integrate longitudinal, county-level data on residential and industrial emissions from the Vulcan Project with demographic, economic and environmental data from the U.S. Census Bureau and National Land Change Database. Results from spatial regression models with two-way fixed-effects indicate that alongside innovations and efficiencies capable of reducing environmentally harmful effects of development comes a spatial disarticulation between carbon-intensive production and consumption within as well as across societies. Implications for existing theory, methods and policy are discussed.     

An Adaptive Functional Autoregressive Forecast Model to Predict Electricity Price Curves

We propose an adaptive functional autoregressive (AFAR) forecast model to predict electricity price curves. With time-varying operators, the AFAR model can be safely used in both stationary and nonstationary situations. A closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is derived under stationarity. The result is further extended for nonstationarity, where the time-dependent operators are adaptively estimated under local homogeneity. We provide theoretical results of the ML estimator and the adaptive estimator. Simulation study illustrates nice finite sample performance of the AFAR modeling. The AFAR model also exhibits a superior accuracy in the forecast exercise of the California electricity daily price curves compared to several alternatives.     

Governing Deviance in Public Space through Mayoral Orders: Fields Mismatch and Metropolitan Turbulence

This article addresses the issue of policy change and its consequences on the organizational field and institutional context, looking at the role of an instrument transfer process. We adopt a political sociology approach to policy instruments to account for the impact that the introduction of a securitarian instrument, the mayoral order, had on the implementation process of a social policy. Through a genealogy of the instrument we identify a constitutive, normative and cognitive dimension. Our aim is to explain the interaction between these institutional dimensions, the re‐definition of the organizational field of the policy, and the dynamics of metropolitan politics. Following a synthesis of the policy process and the institutional arrangements where the policy is implemented, we show how the instrument transfer triggered a division within the organizational field, and the rise of institutional tensions amongst local authorities. In the conclusion, we identify the institutional dimensions of the instruments and the policy implementation scale as elements that are to interact with public‐private relationships and institutional arrangements, and that have an impact on implementation process and policy outcome.     

Can Quasi‐market and Multi‐level Governance Co‐exist? Insights from the Case of Lombardy's Employment Services System

This article explores the functioning of Lombardy's networked employment services system, inspired by quasi‐market and horizontal subsidiarity principles, and specifically addresses a gap in the quasi‐market literature, where little attention is devoted to the role played by institutions at lower levels of government. A qualitative study of the Lombardy system, with a focus on the municipality of Milan, is relied upon in order to explore the extent to which the principles of quasi‐market and multi‐level governance pursued by the regional government are allowed to co‐exist in practice. Here, sub‐regional levels of government are directly involved in services provision, but enjoy a more privileged condition relative to the private providers, thereby jeopardizing the implementation of an effective quasi‐market. The article contributes to existing theories by suggesting that horizontal subsidiarity and marketization cannot neglect multi‐level governance in those sectors where public bodies at various levels of government are directly involved in implementation.