如何解释资本结构的调整方式和速度--基于福耀玻璃的案例分析与讨论

以现有资本结构理论为基础,试图寻找能解释各种典型公司资本结构调整方式和速度的理论框架。首先以案例分析为基础分析了主流资本结构理论对案例公司资本结构调整方式的解释程度和解释异同。然后结合公司的财务政策,定性分析了主流理论对于资本结构调整方式存在解释异同的背后原因以及将主流理论融合的理论框架。认为从资金供需的角度理解权衡理论和优序融资理论以及市场择时理论,可以将这些主流理论统一起来解释各种典型的资本结构调整方式。同时,发现以计量模型估算的资本结构调整速度推断资本结构调整到目标水平所需的时间,会误导人们对于资本结构调整方式的理解。     

“双向祛建制性”与乡村天主教血缘家族一体化——来源于冀中赵村田野经验的研究

在中国乡村社会,天主教的传播没有产生像欧洲社会那种瓦解替代血缘家族组织的社会后果,而是在一定范围内与血缘家族组织发生了特定模式的融通。对此,本文通过呈现生活于河北赵村骆姓天主教皈信者,对其血缘家族关系与天主教教友的双从身份关系的一体化处理过程,来展现他们身为教友又属同一家族的事实。并认为,总体性公共秩序的民族国家转型,对均具有政治潜能的传统家族与制度性“教会”所进行的双向消解的祛建制性过程,提供了这种一体化的制度条件。在这一意义上,继承19世纪末以来由强大行政力量推动现代化特征的当下国家,对于相关问题的理解与设计仍将起决定作用。     

中日两国人名、称谓文化考

姓名是个人与社会联系的纽带,是个人在社会上存在的一种证明。称谓是以本人为轴心确定亲属以及非亲属与本人关系的标志。无论是在中国还是在日本,姓名和称谓对于人们来说都有着非常重要的意义。但是,由于两国的历史文化以及价值取向不同,导致了两国人民在对姓名及称谓的认知不尽相同。中国古代在名字的使用上有避讳的制度。在言谈和书写时,遇到君父长上的名字一律要回避。取名时也不能取他们的名字中有的或同音的字。这一习俗在亲属称谓以及社会称谓习俗上也留有烙印。从文化对比的角度,以人名的避讳为切入口,分析中日两国的姓名及称谓的特征和差异以及所产生的原因。这一研究有助于我们对中日两国的姓名及称谓有一个更加系统的认识,对中日两国的社会、传统文化有更加深入的了解。     

土地改革与农村权力秩序的重建--以1950年至1952年的绵阳为个案

土地改革颠覆了农村社会传统的格局和秩序,对当代中国历史发展产生了深远影响。凭借政治动员技术的巧妙运用,我党成功地将自己的意识形态传递给农民,使其形成具有明确指向的阶级意识,从而积极投身到群众运动之中;继之而起的“公审斗争”和“没收赔罚”摧毁了地主的权威,农民由此掌握了乡村话语权,成为政治活动的主体;通过干部整训,我党着力培育造就新的基层执政者阶层,希冀利用他们替代传统精英,实现乡村权力秩序的重建。     

Comparison of hazard rates for dependent random variables

In this paper, we define and study a new notion for the comparison of the hazard rates of two random variables taking into account their mutual dependence. Properties, applications and the comparison for a data set are given.     

Pooled Panel Unit Root Tests and the Effect of Past Initialization

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance.     

Understanding Estimators of Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs

In this paper, we propose two new estimators of treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs. These estimators can aid understanding of the existing estimators such as the local polynomial estimator and the partially linear estimator. The first estimator is the partially polynomial estimator which extends the partially linear estimator by further incorporating derivative differences of the conditional mean of the outcome on the two sides of the discontinuity point. This estimator is related to the local polynomial estimator by a relocalization effect. Unlike the partially linear estimator, this estimator can achieve the optimal rate of convergence even under broader regularity conditions. The second estimator is an instrumental variable estimator in the fuzzy design. This estimator will reduce to the local polynomial estimator if higher order endogeneities are neglected. We study the asymptotic properties of these two estimators and conduct simulation studies to confirm the theoretical analysis.     

On the Joint Estimation of Heterogeneous Technologies,Technical, and Allocative Inefficiency

In this article, we provide a semiparametric approach to the joint measurement of technical and allocative inefficiency in a way that the internal consistency of the specification of allocative errors in the objective function (e.g., cost function) and the derivative equations (e.g., share or input demand functions) is assured. We start from the Cobb–Douglas production and shadow cost system. We show that the shadow cost system has a closed-form likelihood function contrary to what was previously thought. In turn, we use the method of local maximum likelihood applied to a system of equations to obtain firm-specific parameter estimates (which reveal heterogeneity in production) as well as measures of technical and allocative inefficiency and its cost. We illustrate its practical application using data on U.S. electric utilities.     

The Local Power of the CADF and CIPS Panel Unit Root Tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.     

A Seemingly Unrelated Nonparametric Additive Model with Autoregressive Errors

This article considers a nonparametric additive seemingly unrelated regression model with autoregressive errors, and develops estimation and inference procedures for this model. Our proposed method first estimates the unknown functions by combining polynomial spline series approximations with least squares, and then uses the fitted residuals together with the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty to identify the error structure and estimate the unknown autoregressive coefficients. Based on the polynomial spline series estimator and the fitted error structure, a two-stage local polynomial improved estimator for the unknown functions of the mean is further developed. Our procedure applies a prewhitening transformation of the dependent variable, and also takes into account the contemporaneous correlations across equations. We show that the resulting estimator possesses an oracle property, and is asymptotically more efficient than estimators that neglect the autocorrelation and/or contemporaneous correlations of errors. We investigate the small sample properties of the proposed procedure in a simulation study.