村级计划生育工作与稳定低生育水平

我国稳定低生育水平工作的重点在农村。而农村目前存在干部认识不到位、依法行政不规范、宣传教育不深入、队伍素质不高、资金投入不足等问题。应采取强化宣传、村民自治、优质服务、正确导向、有效管理等措施 ,以确保农村低生育水平的稳定     

The Crucial Role of Nomothetic and Idiographic Conceptions of Time: Interdisciplinary Collaboration in Nuclear Waste Management

The disposal of nuclear waste involves extensive time scales. Technical experts consider up to 1 million years for the disposal of spent fuel and high‐level waste in their safety assessment. Yet nuclear waste is not only a technical but also a so‐called sociotechnical problem and, therefore, requires interdisciplinary collaboration between technical, natural, social sciences, and the humanities in its management. Given that these disciplines differ in their language, epistemics, and interests, such collaboration might be problematic. Based on evidence from cognitive psychology, we suggest that, in particular, a concept like time is presumably critical and can be understood differently. This study explores how different scientific disciplines understand extensive time scales in general and then focuses on nuclear waste. Eighteen qualitative exploratory interviews were conducted with experts for time‐related phenomena of different disciplines, among them experts working in nuclear waste management. Analyses revealed two distinct conceptions of time corresponding to idiographic and nomothetic research approaches: scientists from the humanities and social sciences tend to have a more open, undetermined conception of time, whereas natural scientists tend to focus on a more determined conception that includes some undetermined aspects. Our analyses lead to reflections on potential difficulties for interdisciplinary teams in nuclear waste management. We focus on the understanding of the safety assessment, on potential implications for communication between experts from different disciplines (e.g., between experts from the humanities and engineering for risk assessment and risk communication), and we reflect on the roles of different disciplines in nuclear waste management.     

A Critical Discussion and Practical Recommendations on Some Issues Relevant to the Nonprobabilistic Treatment of Uncertainty in Engineering Risk Assessment

Models for the assessment of the risk of complex engineering systems are affected by uncertainties due to the randomness of several phenomena involved and the incomplete knowledge about some of the characteristics of the system. The objective of this article is to provide operative guidelines to handle some conceptual and technical issues related to the treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment for engineering practice. In particular, the following issues are addressed: (1) quantitative modeling and representation of uncertainty coherently with the information available on the system of interest; (2) propagation of the uncertainty from the input(s) to the output(s) of the system model; (3) (Bayesian) updating as new information on the system becomes available; and (4) modeling and representation of dependences among the input variables and parameters of the system model. Different approaches and methods are recommended for efficiently tackling each of issues (1)?(4) above; the tools considered are derived from both classical probability theory as well as alternative, nonfully probabilistic uncertainty representation frameworks (e.g., possibility theory). The recommendations drawn are supported by the results obtained in illustrative applications of literature.     

传递文化表征何以成为可能？——基于云南西双版纳一傣族村寨的民族志考察

人类学以研究人和文化见长。在人和文化组成的人文世界中，文化通过不断地传递得以存续。人作为文化传递的重要环节和载体，在以文化表征的传递为主要方式的文化传递过程中，其心理表征以及该表征所指的意义也在不断变动，从而使由心理表征外化而成的公共表征发生改变。这些传递过程中的变化与不变皆能统辖于文化表征本身，因此在网络通讯技术和新媒体高度发达的现实社会语境中，以文化表征的传递的视角理解文化的传递和嬗变就成为必要的可能。     

Microbiological and Modeling Approach to Derive Performance Objectives for Bacillus cereus Group in Ready‐to‐Eat Salads

In this article, the performance objectives (POs) for Bacillus cereus group (BC) in celery, cheese, and spelt added as ingredients in a ready‐to‐eat mixed spelt salad, packaged under modified atmosphere, were calculated using a Bayesian approach. In order to derive the POs, BC detection and enumeration were performed in nine lots of naturally contaminated ingredients and final product. Moreover, the impact of specific production steps on the BC contamination was quantified. Finally, a sampling plan to verify the ingredient lots' compliance with each PO value at a 95% confidence level (CL) was defined. To calculate the POs, detection results as well as results above the limit of detection but below the limit of quantification (i.e., censored data) were analyzed. The most probable distribution of the censored data was determined and two‐dimensional (2D) Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The PO values were calculated to meet a food safety objective of 4 log₁₀ cfu of BC for g of spelt salad at the time of consumption. When BC grows during storage between 0.90 and 1.90 log₁₀ cfu/g, the POs for BC in celery, cheese, and spelt ranged between 1.21 log₁₀ cfu/g for celery and 2.45 log₁₀ cfu/g for spelt. This article represents the first attempt to manage the concept of PO and 2D Monte Carlo simulation in the flow chart of a complex food matrix, including raw and cooked ingredients.     

On not really being there: trans* presence/absence in Dallas Buyers Club

Recently more trans characters, even as main protagonists, star in film and media representations, perhaps in tandem with an increased recognition of trans rights globally. In this article we argue that the visual and aural grammars of cinema perform a double movement of inclusion and elision, making for a fascinating if utterly frustrating uptake of trans presence that is at once, perforce, also an absence. Our case study of the Rayon character in Dallas Buyers Club is an example of a recent sexualized representation of trans femininity. Our textual analysis will deconstruct this character’s presence and absence on the level of the film’s aesthetical and technical aspects demonstrating how cinematic grammar implicates cisgenderism.     

Recent developments in high dimensional covariance estimation and its related issues,a review

In this paper we review some of recent developments in high dimensional data analysis, especially in the estimation of covariance and precision matrix, asymptotic results on the eigenstructure in the principal components analysis, and some relevant issues such as test on the equality of two covariance matrices, determination of the number of principal components, and detection of hubs in a complex network.     

On Quasi Likelihood Equations with Non-parametric Weights

To apply the quasi likelihood method one needs both the mean and the variance functions to determine its optimal weights. If the variance function is unknown, then the weights should be acquired from the data. One way to do so is by adaptive estimation, which involves non-parametric estimation of the variance function. Adaptation, however, also brings in noise that hampers its improvement for moderate samples. In this paper we introduce an alternative method based not on the estimation of the variance function, but on the penalized minimization of the asymptotic variance of the estimator. By doing so we are able to retain a restricted optimality under the smoothness condition, however strong that condition may be. This is important because for moderate sample sizes we need to impose a strong smoothness constraint to damp the noise—often stronger than would be adequate for the adaptive method. We will give a rigorous development of the related asymptotic theory, and provide the simulation evidence for the advantage of this method.     

The adoption of women’s legislative caucuses worldwide

Recent decades have witnessed the rise, across a wide range of countries, of political institutions designed to promote gender equality and women’s political representation. Existing studies have shown how international diffusion processes have contributed to the adoption of two kinds of such institutions – gender mainstreaming and gender quotas. Mounting evidence suggests that institutional reforms within legislatures constitute the latest wave of gendered institutional reform. This article identifies and explains trends in the adoption of one kind of gender-focused parliamentary institution – women’s legislative caucuses (WLCs). We use a discrete time duration model to assess the effect of several factors on WLC establishment. While there is theoretical room to expect diffusion, structural and institutional variables to affect the likelihood of caucus adoption, we find the strongest empirical support for diffusion and institutional factors. A parliament’s likelihood of adopting a WLC rises when sub-regional peers have created WLCs, when women’s international non-governmental organizations are active in the country and when the country has implemented a gender quota. Understanding the factors that affect the adoption of gender-focused parliamentary institutions is critically important, we argue, since such bodies provide space to confront masculinized institutionalized rules and norms.     

Oscar Pistorius and the melancholy of intersectionality

The alleged shooting by Paralympian and Olympian athlete Oscar Pistorius of his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp has led to strong reactions worldwide. Scholars in the field of disability studies have expressed shock and disappointment in response both to the death itself and to its implications for the representation of disability. In South Africa in the wake of the death of Ms Steenkamp, much has been made both by critics of Pistorius and by his defenders about his status as a white South African man, but little has been said about disability issues. This silence in South Africa about disability as a possible identity factor in this case draws attention to the extent to which disability questions remain profoundly raced and gendered, and influenced by the colonial and apartheid past. The tragic alleged shooting by Oscar Pistorius draws attention back to how important intersectionality is to understanding disability in South Africa and other unequal societies.