Prediction intervals for generalized-order statistics with random sample size

The problem of predicting future generalized-order statistics, by assuming the future sample size is a random variable, is discussed. A general expression for the coverage probability of the prediction intervals is derived. Since k-records and progressively type-II censored-order statistics are contained in the model of generalized-order statistics, the corresponding results for them can be deduced as special cases. When the future sample size has degenerate, binomial, Poisson and geometric distributions, numerical computations are given. The procedure for finding an optimal prediction interval is presented for each case. Finally, we apply our results to a real data set in life testing given in Lee and Wang [Statistical methods for survival data analysis. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons; 2003, p. 58, Table 3.4] for illustrative the proposed procedure in this paper.     

Ruin Probabilities of a Dual Markov-Modulated Risk Model

This article is devoted to studying a dual Markov-modulated risk model, which can properly represent, to some extent, surplus processes of companies that pay costs continuously and have occasional gains. We consider both the finite and infnite horizon ruin probabilities under this dual model. Upper and lower bounds of Lundberg type are derived for these ruin probabilities. We also obtain a time-dependent version of Lundberg type inequalities.     

发展逻辑与路径转化:近世长江下游地区经济发展动力的历史分析

明清时期长江下游地区通过劳动分工、生产专业化、商品化,依靠不断扩大的商品市场,在“斯密型动力”推动下有效缓解了日益严峻的经济压力,开启了经济转型的进程.通过转变,该地区的经济商品化程度和工业化程度都有明显的提高.然而,这种“斯密型动力”和生产“过密化”愈发展,对产生工业革命的负面影响就愈大、阻碍性就愈强.事实证明,这种早期的农村工业化并不必然导致近代工业化,长江下游地区(乃至全国)也并不存在一个类似于西方工业革命的光明前景.     

异质性社区的社会交往与社区认同——北京沙村的个案研究

通过对北京一个流动人口聚居区的田野调查,基于本土居民适应的视角,讨论分析了本土居民与外来移民在共居状态下日常交往的内容与层次,并进一步阐述了外来移民对本土居民的家庭生活、社会交往以及社区认同的影响。研究表明,无论在客观层面还是主观认同上,"社会距离"真实地存在于本土居民与外来移民的社会交往中;同时,由于与外来移民打交道成为他们日常生活中最重要的内容,本土居民之间的互动和社区参与受到制约,邻里社会资本这类传统的社会连接纽带遭到破坏,本土居民的社区认同与归属感降低,社区整合与秩序受到了挑战。     

Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.     

Analytic connections between a double design and its original design in terms of different optimality criteria

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the study of double designs. Various popular optimality criteria have been proposed from different principles for design construction and comparison, such as E(s²), generalized minimum aberration (GMA), minimum moment aberration (MMA), and minimum projection uniformity (MPU). In this article, these criteria are reviewed, and analytic connections between a double design and its original design in terms of these criteria are investigated. These connections are suitable for general original two-level factorial design, whether regular or non regular. In addition, these results provide strong insight into the relationship between double design and original design from different viewpoints.     

A lower bound based smoothed quasi-Newton algorithm for group bridge penalized regression

In this paper, we propose a lower bound based smoothed quasi-Newton algorithm for computing the solution paths of the group bridge estimator in linear regression models. Our method is based on the quasi-Newton algorithm with a smoothed group bridge penalty in combination with a novel data-driven thresholding rule for the regression coefficients. This rule is derived based on a necessary KKT condition of the group bridge optimization problem. It is easy to implement and can be used to eliminate groups with zero coefficients. Thus, it reduces the dimension of the optimization problem. The proposed algorithm removes the restriction of groupwise orthogonal condition needed in coordinate descent and LARS algorithms for group variable selection. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the coordinate descent based algorithms in both efficiency and accuracy.     

Nonparametric Predictive Multiple Comparisons of Lifetime Data

We consider lifetime experiments to compare units from different groups, where the units’ lifetimes may be right censored. Nonparametric predictive inference for comparison of multiple groups is presented, in particular lower and upper probabilities for the event that a specific group will provide the largest next lifetime. We include the practically relevant consideration that the overall lifetime experiment may be terminated at an early stage, leading to simultaneous right-censoring of all units still in the experiment.     

莫西沙星治疗老年下呼吸道感染的疗效观察

目的研究莫西沙星治疗老年下呼吸道感染的临床疗效与安全性。方法搜集老年下呼吸道感染病例98例,对其用药前后的临床症状、体征、实验室检查和病原学检查。及肝肾功能相关指标进行分析。结果98例患者经莫西沙星治疗后急性支气管炎有效率为90．0％、慢性支气管炎急性发作（ABCE）为80．0％、慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期（AECOPD）轻度为80％、中度为64.3％、重度为61．5％,慢性支气管炎并肺炎为54．5％。98例患者治疗中出现头晕3例、出现幻觉1例,所有患者用药前后肝肾功能相关指标变化无统计学意义。结论莫西沙星治疗老年下呼吸道感染疗效确切,安全。