理论创新与实战局限:明代车战的历史考察

从明正统年间开始,明朝统治集团中屡屡有人倡议以车战抵御蒙古骑兵的入侵。在这一背景下,车战理论逐渐形成。同时,在明朝北部边防中,车战御敌的战例也频频出现,其中不乏成功者。但从整个边防角度来说,车战作用又十分有限,其理论意义远远大于实践价值。究其根本原因在于,明朝统治集团对车战未能形成共识,同时御敌于境外的战略指导思想以及战车设计的缺陷也导致了车战未能扮演更为重要的角色。     

迷茫中的选择现实中的妥协——对我国刑诉案中证人出庭困境的理性批判

《刑事诉讼法》经过系统修改在我国颁布实行后,我国的刑事司法制度日益完善,更趋向于合理。但在具体考量刑事司法制度变革是否深入的问题时,证人怠于出庭逐渐成为衡量其成功与否的重要因素。对此问题的探究,不能仅站在国家管理者的高度凭惯性思考,需要研究者超越历史的局限,从证人对自身重大利益的关切,以及社会强势群体的示范导向和人情社会的惰性阻碍着眼,加以理性地批判。     

Personal income taxation under mobility, exogenous and endogenous welfare weights, and asymmetric information

This paper analyses how governments should tax labour income accruing to a group of highly skilled and geographically mobile individuals who divide their time or career between several jurisdictions. The analysis differs from previous models on migration and taxation by addressing optimal regulation when agents work for several principals. Optimal taxation is developed for social welfare functions with exogenous and endogenous welfare weights. Marginal income taxes are applied for screening purposes, and the rates are lower with endogenous than with exogenous welfare weights. Received: 22 January 1998/Accepted: 3 July 1999)     

A two phases queueing system with Bernoulli vacation schedule under multiple vacation policy

This paper deals with a single server Poisson arrival queue with two phases of heterogeneous service along with a Bernoulli schedule vacation model, where after two successive phases service the server either goes for a vacation with probability p (0≤p≤1) or may continue to serve the next unit, if any, with probability q(=1−p). Further the concept of multiple vacation policy is also introduced here. We obtained the queue size distributions at a departure epoch and at a random epoch, Laplace Stieltjes Transform of the waiting time distribution and busy period distribution along with some mean performance measures. Finally we discuss some statistical inference related issues.     

On the mode of administering a questionnaire and responses to open-ended items

Concurrently administered personal and telephone surveys are compared to measure differences between the modes for identical questions. Speed of questioning is found to be greater in telephone interviews than personal interviews. The faster pace of telephone interviews is linked to shorter answers to open-ended items on the telephone. The tendency to reduce such responses is disproportionately exhibited by younger, affluent respondents who tend to provide detailed responses in personal interviews.     

The cost of children: May the collective approach to household behavior help?

The collective approach to household consumption behavior tries to infer from variables supposed to affect the general bargaining position of household members information on the allocation of consumptions goods and tasks among them. This paper investigates the extension of previous work to the case where children may be considered as a public consumption good by the two adult members of a household. The main question being asked is whether it is possible to retrieve from the aggregate consumption behaviour of the household and the relative earnings of the parents information on the allocation of goods between them and children. This alternative approach to the estimation of the ‘cost of children’ is contrasted with the conventional approach based on a ‘unitary’ representation of and demographic separability assumptions on household consumption behaviour. Received: 29 August 1997/Accepted: 26 November 1998     

对目前我国MBO实施存在的几个问题的思考

国有企业改革成败的关键是产权制度改革,MBO为产权制度改革提供了新的思路,是产权制度改革的有效途径,具有现实的意义。但MBO在我国刚刚起步,还处于探索的阶段,MBO的多个环节存在这样那样的问题,需要我们去研究去解决。本文从收购主体、收购定价、资金来源、社会风险、企业后续发展等几个方面分析了目前我国MBO实施存在的问题,并提出了几点建议。     

India's demand for international reserve and monetary disequilibrium: Reserve adequacy under floating regime

The main aim of this study is to investigate India's demand for international reserve by focusing on the role of national monetary disequilibrium and to present new benchmarks for assessing the adequacy of international reserves. We assessed India's position in terms of reserve adequacy and found that India is well placed and has sufficient stock of international reserves to meet the minimum adequacy requirements. Also, the results reveal that the central bank is holding substantial excess reserves and the related opportunity cost (1.5% of GDP) appears to be quite considerable. Further, the estimates of reserve demand function suggest that scale of foreign trade, uncertainty and profitability considerations play significant role in determining India's long-term reserve demand policies. More importantly, validating the monetary approach to balance of payment, our results show that national monetary disequilibrium does play a crucial role in short-run reserve movements. An excess of money demand (supply) induces an inflow (outflow) of international reserves with an elasticity of 0.56 which also implies that Reserve Bank of India responds to correct the domestic money market disequilibrium; and did not just leave it completely on the mercy of reserve inflows.     

A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.