Indigenous Psychology: Grounding Science in Culture,Why and How?

My agenda is to ground psychological science in culture by using complex rather than overly simple models of culture and using indigenous categories as criteria of a translation test to determine the adequacy of scientific models of culture. I first explore the compatibility between Chinese indigenous categories and complex models of culture, by casting in the theoretical framework of symmetry and symmetry breaking (Bolender, 2010) a series of translations performed on Fiske's (1991) relational models theory. Next, I show how the dimensional approach to culture, prevalent in mainstream psychology, fails the translation test. Ethical implications of this analysis for cross cultural psychology are discussed.     

China’s Choice of Analytical Models for Its Anti-Monopoly Law

Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law.     

禅宗“斗机锋”交际的核心思维模式

“斗机锋”在行为表层体现为双人或多人参与的言语、副言语互动交际。“斗机锋”与一般交际行为存在共性,同时也存在显著差异。“斗机锋”是由禅宗逻辑下的思维系统驱动的,在一般理性下显得不可理喻。“斗机锋”展现出令人眼花缭乱的互动,若剥离其行为表层,则可还原为不同思维模式之间的对垒,涉及的思维模式主要有五类：“一切现成”思维、“不二”思维、“究竟本缘”思维、“离杀”思维、“空空”思维。“斗机锋”训练的基本目标是消除参与者对固化思维程式的执著,开发更广泛的思维途径。经过训练,参与者可以提升思维的创造性、灵活性和迅捷性,也可能被偶然地诱导发生顿悟。     

Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates—successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths—are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.     

Macroeconomic asymmetry in the Eurozone before and after the Global Financial Crisis: An appraisal of the role of the ECB

The launch of the euro in 1999 was assumed to enhance macroeconomic convergence among EMU economies. We test this hypothesis from a comparative perspective, by calculating different indices to measure the degree of macroeconomic dispersion within the Eurozone, the UK and the USA (1999–2019). We use common factor models to produce a single index for each monetary area out of different measures of dispersion. These indices can be used to inform on the degree of optimality of a monetary area. Our results show that macroeconomic dispersion in the Eurozone increased notably even before 2007 and it took significantly longer to return to pre-crisis levels, as compared to the UK and the USA. The paper shows the critical role played by the ECB’s asset purchases programmes in reducing macroeconomic divergences among EMU member states since 2015.     

Information management support for international negotiations

This paper examines the information processing requirements that surround the international negotiations process. General problem-solving models and generic task taxonomies are explored to provide insight into this process, a process that can be characterized as iterative options analysis. The paper also identifies a set of existing and emerging information technologies that can support the negotiation process, technologies that range from electronic mail to group decision support systems. The premise of the paper is that cost-effective information technology can support many important negotiation tasks and that existing technology has been vastly under-exploited by negotiators and their staffs. A program for introducing and evaluating information technology is also proposed.     

西方团队心理授权模型评价与展望

在分析社会-结构授权理论基础上,界定了团队心理授权的内涵,评介了现有团队心理授权模型(团队心理授权效能机制模型、团队心理授权形成机制模型以及多层次心理授权模型);然后,具体分析了这3种模型的结构特征、拓展应用以及存在的不足;最后,指出了团队心理授权未来的研究趋势。     

Flood Risk Management: US Army Corps of Engineers and Layperson Perceptions

Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning that harmonizes stakeholder and agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. A literature review and two expert models/mental models studies were undertaken to identify areas of importance in the flood risk management process for layperson, non‐USACE‐expert, and two USACE‐expert groups. In characterizing and mapping stakeholder beliefs about risks in the literature onto current risk management practice, recommendations for accommodating and changing stakeholder perceptions of flood risks and their management are identified. Needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) flood preparedness and response program are discussed in the context of flood risk mental models.     

Impossibility Results for Nondifferentiable Functionals

We examine challenges to estimation and inference when the objects of interest are nondifferentiable functionals of the underlying data distribution. This situation arises in a number of applications of bounds analysis and moment inequality models, and in recent work on estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. Drawing on earlier work relating differentiability to the existence of unbiased and regular estimators, we show that if the target object is not differentiable in the parameters of the data distribution, there exist no estimator sequences that are locally asymptotically unbiased or α‐quantile unbiased. This places strong limits on estimators, bias correction methods, and inference procedures, and provides motivation for considering other criteria for evaluating estimators and inference procedures, such as local asymptotic minimaxity and one‐sided quantile unbiasedness.     

基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM(1,1)模型及其应用研究

本文分析了传统FAGM（1,1）模型建模过程中存在的误差,提出了一种基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM（1,1）模型。首先,基于分数阶累加生成算子和分数阶累减生成算子建立分数阶FAGM（1,1）模型。其次,利用Simpson积分公式对FAGM（1,1）模型的背景值进行改进,建立SFAGM（1,1）模型。进一步,应用遗传算法确定SFAGM（1,1）模型的最优阶数以提高模型的预测精度。最后,以中国人均GDP为例,对比分析GM（1,1）模型、Simpson改进的GM（1,1）模型（SGM（1,1））、FAGM（1,1）模型、SFAGM（1,1）模型的模拟结果,并对"十三五"时期的人均GDP进行预测,其结果表明SFAGM（1,1）模型比GM（1,1）、SGM（1,1）、FAGM（1,1）在人均GDP的预测方面有更高的精度,"十三五"期间人均GDP年平均增长率为10.64%,到2020年达到83146.97元,是2010年人均GDP的2.69倍,以2010年的人均GDP为基准,到2020年将能够实现翻一番的目标。