Theoretical perspectives of trade-off analysis using DEA

Because of the piecewise linear nature of the frontier in data envelopment analysis (DEA), estimated marginal rates of substitution are only valid for infinitesimal, or small finite, changes in one or more variables. Analysing the impacts of very small changes is not adequate for many situations, where the consequences of substantial changes in variables are of interest to for instance managers. This paper develops methods for evaluating larger, i.e. non-marginal, tradeoffs between variables in DEA. The methods are capable of handling both scalar and additive changes. Finally, the approaches for evaluating basic pairwise tradeoffs are generalised in order to enable assessment of the impact on one or more throughputs of the change in one or more of the other throughputs.     

An estimating equation for parametric shared frailty models with marginal additive hazards

Summary.  Multivariate failure time data arise when data consist of clusters in which the failure times may be dependent. A popular approach to such data is the marginal proportional hazards model with estimation under the working independence assumption. In some contexts, however, it may be more reasonable to use the marginal additive hazards model. We derive asymptotic properties of the Lin and Ying estimators for the marginal additive hazards model for multivariate failure time data. Furthermore we suggest estimating equations for the regression parameters and association parameters in parametric shared frailty models with marginal additive hazards by using the Lin and Ying estimators. We give the large sample properties of the estimators arising from these estimating equations and investigate their small sample properties by Monte Carlo simulation. A real example is provided for illustration.     

Fitting and comparing seed germination models with a focus on the inverse normal distribution

This paper reviews current methods for fitting a range of models to censored seed germination data and recommends adoption of a probability‐based model for the time to germination. It shows that, provided the probability of a seed eventually germinating is not on the boundary, maximum likelihood estimates, their standard errors and the resultant deviances are identical whether only those seeds which have germinated are used or all seeds (including seeds ungerminated at the end of the experiment). The paper recommends analysis of deviance when exploring whether replicate data are consistent with a hypothesis that the underlying distributions are identical, and when assessing whether data from different treatments have underlying distributions with common parameters. The inverse normal distribution, otherwise known as the inverse Gaussian distribution, is discussed, as a natural distribution for the time to germination (including a parameter to measure the lag time to germination). The paper explores some of the properties of this distribution, evaluates the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and suggests an accurate approximation to the cumulative distribution function and the median time to germination. Additional material is on the web, at http://www.agric.usyd.edu.au/staff/oneill/ .     

从“边界冲突”到“关系自觉”—论费孝通如何用“场”修正“差序格局”

“差序格局”原本是费孝通概括中国传统社会亲属关系和社会结构形态的理论工具,也是分析中国人“群己之别”、“圈层意识”的“私”道德的功能概念,更蕴含着人际关系紧张、秩序隐患和边界冲突等负面影响。利用“场”的扩散、交叉性和非边界、融合等特性,来补充“差序格局”,既是费孝通晚年对差序格局内在“推己及人”达成“和”的社会秩序的文化反思,也是对消除现实生活中人际关系隔阂,实现关系自觉的实践关怀。中国人际关系结构的“差序”和“场”二重性,行动者“差序”和“边际”的双重人格,构成中国人际关系交往的实践逻辑,也是费孝通用“场”补充“差序格局”的理论启示。推动费孝通借助“场”来补充和修正“差序格局”的文化意义和研究范畴,仍需进一步开掘。     

The Trace Restriction: An Alternative Identification Strategy for the Bayesian Multinomial Probit Model

Previous authors have made Bayesian multinomial probit models identifiable by fixing a parameter on the main diagonal of the covariance matrix. The choice of which element one fixes can influence posterior predictions. Thus, we propose restricting the trace of the covariance matrix, which we achieve without computational penalty. This permits a prior that is symmetric to permutations of the nonbase outcome categories. We find in real and simulated consumer choice datasets that the trace-restricted model is less prone to making extreme predictions. Further, the trace restriction can provide stronger identification, yielding marginal posterior distributions that are more easily interpreted.     

A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Expected Cell Counts by Using Log-Linear Models

ABSTRACT

In this article, Bayesian estimation of the expected cell counts for log-linear models is considered. The prior specified for log-linear parameters is used to determine a prior for expected cell counts, by means of the family and parameters of prior distributions. This approach is more cost-effective than working directly with cell counts because converting prior information into a prior distribution on the log-linear parameters is easier than that of on the expected cell counts. While proceeding from the prior on log-linear parameters to the prior of the expected cell counts, we faced with a singularity problem of variance matrix of the prior distribution, and added a new precision parameter to solve the problem. A numerical example is also given to illustrate the usage of the new parameter.     

Change Point Detection in a General Class of Distributions

ABSTRACT

We consider the change point problem in a general class of distributions, and derive a test statistic T _n which reduces to the statistic obtained by Kander and Zacks (1966 Kander , Z. , Zacks , S. ( 1966 ). Test procedure for possible changes in parameter of statistical distributions occurring at unknown time points. Ann. Math. Statist. 37 : 1196 – 1210 . [CSA] [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) for the exponential family. Properties of the test, including its asymptotic distribution, are discussed.     

Modeling Association Between Two or More Categorical Variables that Allow for Multiple Category Choices

Multiple-response (or pick any/c) categorical variables summarize responses to survey questions that ask “pick any” from a set of item responses. Extensions to loglinear model methodology are proposed to model associations between these variables across all their items simultaneously. Because individual item responses to a multiple-response categorical variable are likely to be correlated, the usual chi-square distributional approximations for model-comparison statistics are not appropriate. Adjusted statistics and a new bootstrap procedure are developed to facilitate distributional approximations. Odds ratio and standardized Pearson residual measures are also developed to estimate specific associations and examine deviations from a specified model.     

Marginal Regression Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Panel Data

In this article, we formulate a class of semiparametric marginal means models with a mixture of time-varying and time-independent parameters for analyzing panel data. For inference about the regression parameters, an estimation procedure is developed and asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, some tests are presented for investigating whether or not covariate effects vary with time. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed methods is examined in simulation studies, and the data from an AIDS clinical trial study are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Improved P-Values for Testing Marginal Homogeneity in 2 × 2 Contingency Tables

This article considers the problem of testing marginal homogeneity in a 2 × 2 contingency table. We first review some well-known conditional and unconditional p-values appeared in the statistical literature. Then we treat the p-value as the test statistic and use the unconditional approach to obtain the modified p-value, which is shown to be valid. For a given nominal level, the rejection region of the modified p-value test contains that of the original p-value test. Some nice properties of the modified p-value are given. Especially, under mild conditions the rejection region of the modified p-value test is shown to be the Barnard convex set as described by Barnard (1947 Barnard , G. A. ( 1947 ). Significance tests for 2 × 2 tables . Biometrika 34 : 123 – 138 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). If the one-sided null hypothesis has two nuisance parameters, we show that this result can reduce the dimension of the nuisance parameter space from two to one for computing modified p-values and sizes of tests. Numerical studies including an illustrative example are given. Numerical comparisons show that the sizes of the modified p-value tests are closer to a nominal level than those of the original p-value tests for many cases, especially in the case of small to moderate sample sizes.