The Trace Restriction: An Alternative Identification Strategy for the Bayesian Multinomial Probit Model

Previous authors have made Bayesian multinomial probit models identifiable by fixing a parameter on the main diagonal of the covariance matrix. The choice of which element one fixes can influence posterior predictions. Thus, we propose restricting the trace of the covariance matrix, which we achieve without computational penalty. This permits a prior that is symmetric to permutations of the nonbase outcome categories. We find in real and simulated consumer choice datasets that the trace-restricted model is less prone to making extreme predictions. Further, the trace restriction can provide stronger identification, yielding marginal posterior distributions that are more easily interpreted.     

Change Point Detection in a General Class of Distributions

ABSTRACT

We consider the change point problem in a general class of distributions, and derive a test statistic T _n which reduces to the statistic obtained by Kander and Zacks (1966 Kander , Z. , Zacks , S. ( 1966 ). Test procedure for possible changes in parameter of statistical distributions occurring at unknown time points. Ann. Math. Statist. 37 : 1196 – 1210 . [CSA] [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) for the exponential family. Properties of the test, including its asymptotic distribution, are discussed.     

Modeling Association Between Two or More Categorical Variables that Allow for Multiple Category Choices

Multiple-response (or pick any/c) categorical variables summarize responses to survey questions that ask “pick any” from a set of item responses. Extensions to loglinear model methodology are proposed to model associations between these variables across all their items simultaneously. Because individual item responses to a multiple-response categorical variable are likely to be correlated, the usual chi-square distributional approximations for model-comparison statistics are not appropriate. Adjusted statistics and a new bootstrap procedure are developed to facilitate distributional approximations. Odds ratio and standardized Pearson residual measures are also developed to estimate specific associations and examine deviations from a specified model.     

Rate of Strong Consistency of Maximum Quasi-Likelihood Estimator in Multivariate Generalized Linear Models

In this article, we consider a multivariate generalized linear model with adaptive design matrix and general link function. The asymptotic singularity of design matrix of adaptive design presents challenge when establishing the large sample properties of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimate (MQLE). Under some mild conditions, we obtain a strong convergence rate of the MQLE.     

Schwarz Method for Penalized Quasi-Likelihood in Generalized Additive Models

The topic is penalized quasi-maximum likelihood estimation in generalized additive models by an approximation using a sequence of sub-models, here called blocks. The Schwarz method uses a sequence of sub-models, The technique might be useful to model comparison, where the fitted values from a sub-model are used as starting values for a larger model.

We show that the algorithm method converges in canonical link of generalized additive models, and a theorem about bound condition of sub-models convergence with uncanonical link.     

Marginal Regression Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Panel Data

In this article, we formulate a class of semiparametric marginal means models with a mixture of time-varying and time-independent parameters for analyzing panel data. For inference about the regression parameters, an estimation procedure is developed and asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, some tests are presented for investigating whether or not covariate effects vary with time. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed methods is examined in simulation studies, and the data from an AIDS clinical trial study are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Improved P-Values for Testing Marginal Homogeneity in 2 × 2 Contingency Tables

This article considers the problem of testing marginal homogeneity in a 2 × 2 contingency table. We first review some well-known conditional and unconditional p-values appeared in the statistical literature. Then we treat the p-value as the test statistic and use the unconditional approach to obtain the modified p-value, which is shown to be valid. For a given nominal level, the rejection region of the modified p-value test contains that of the original p-value test. Some nice properties of the modified p-value are given. Especially, under mild conditions the rejection region of the modified p-value test is shown to be the Barnard convex set as described by Barnard (1947 Barnard , G. A. ( 1947 ). Significance tests for 2 × 2 tables . Biometrika 34 : 123 – 138 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). If the one-sided null hypothesis has two nuisance parameters, we show that this result can reduce the dimension of the nuisance parameter space from two to one for computing modified p-values and sizes of tests. Numerical studies including an illustrative example are given. Numerical comparisons show that the sizes of the modified p-value tests are closer to a nominal level than those of the original p-value tests for many cases, especially in the case of small to moderate sample sizes.     

Estimated Generalized Estimating Equation for Correlated Failure Time Data with Auxiliary Covariates

In this article, we study a marginal hazard model with common baseline hazard for correlated failure time data. We assume that the true covariate is measured precisely in a subset of the whole study cohort, whereas an auxiliary information for the true covariate is available for the whole cohort. We first estimate the relative risk function empirically. Then we obtain the estimator for the regression parameter by replacing the relative risk function with its estimator in a generalized estimating equation (GEE) proposed by Cai (1992 Cai , J. ( 1992 ). Generalized estimation equations for censored multivariate failure time data. Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington . [Google Scholar]). A key feature of this method is that it is nonparametric with respect to the association between the missing covariate and the observed auxiliary covariate. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Furthermore, we present a corrected Breslow-type estimator for the cumulative hazard function. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the proposed method.     

A unified approach to marginal equivalence in the general framework of group invariance

ABSTRACT

Two Bayesian models with different sampling densities are said to be marginally equivalent if the joint distribution of observables and the parameter of interest is the same for both models. We discuss marginal equivalence in the general framework of group invariance. We introduce a class of sampling models and derive marginal equivalence when the prior for the nuisance parameter is relatively invariant. We also obtain some robustness properties of invariant statistics under our sampling models. Besides the prototypical example of v-spherical distributions, we apply our general results to two examples—analysis of affine shapes and principal component analysis.     

The Performance of Two Data-Generation Processes for Data with Specified Marginal Treatment Odds Ratios

Monte Carlo simulation methods are increasingly being used to evaluate the property of statistical estimators in a variety of settings. The utility of these methods depends upon the existence of an appropriate data-generating process. Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effects of exposures and interventions on outcomes. Conventional regression models allow for the estimation of conditional or adjusted estimates of treatment effects. There is an increasing interest in statistical methods for estimating marginal or average treatment effects. However, in many settings, conditional treatment effects can differ from marginal treatment effects. Therefore, existing data-generating processes for conditional treatment effects are of little use in assessing the performance of methods for estimating marginal treatment effects. In the current study, we describe and evaluate the performance of two different data-generation processes for generating data with a specified marginal odds ratio. The first process is based upon computing Taylor Series expansions of the probabilities of success for treated and untreated subjects. The expansions are then integrated over the distribution of the random variables to determine the marginal probabilities of success for treated and untreated subjects. The second process is based upon an iterative process of evaluating marginal odds ratios using Monte Carlo integration. The second method was found to be computationally simpler and to have superior performance compared to the first method.