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141.
We develop a novel computational methodology for Bayesian optimal sequential design for nonparametric regression. This computational methodology, that we call inhomogeneous evolutionary Markov chain Monte Carlo, combines ideas of simulated annealing, genetic or evolutionary algorithms, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our framework allows optimality criteria with general utility functions and general classes of priors for the underlying regression function. We illustrate the usefulness of our novel methodology with applications to experimental design for nonparametric function estimation using Gaussian process priors and free-knot cubic splines priors. 相似文献
142.
地方产业集群升级是区域经济发展的重要研究主题,由于中国特别是东部地区产业集群具有"天生全球化"特质,基于价值链的集群升级理论在适用性上存在局限。本文以原产地多元化为切入点,依据产业集群嵌入全球价值链的程度,对其通过原产地多元化实现升级的途径进行探讨,并结合案例分析加以验证。进而提出基于原产地多元化实现地方产业集群升级的主要内容和政策建议,以期为现实的产业集群发展和区域经济政策制定提供启示。 相似文献
143.
Lingxiang Zhang 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2017,46(24):12317-12323
Previous literature has shown that the addition of an untested surplus-lag Granger causality test can provide highly robust to stationary, non stationary, long memory, and structural break processes in the forcing variables. This study extends this approach to the partial unit root framework by simulation. Results show good size and power. Therefore, the surplus-lag approach is also robust to partial unit root processes. 相似文献
144.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(1-3):19-27
In this paper, procedures for all pairwise comparisons of location parameters of negative exponential populations are developed when the common scale parameter is known or unknown using large sample distributional approximations of the relevant random variables. The small sample performance of these procedures are then examined using Monte Carlo simulation. 相似文献
145.
《Omega》2016
In this short note, we first improve the proof in Zhang et al. [1] to show the strict concavity of the unit time total profit of the whole supply chain with respect to preservation technology investment without approximation. We then generalize the model of Zhang et al. [1] to a broader class of market demand functions. Additionally, theoretical results are provided to illustrate the features of the proposed model. 相似文献
146.
T. H. Starks 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(5):603-617
The use of the logit transformation on paired-comparison data in the weighted least squares analysis of response surfaces for aesthetic qualities of products is discussed. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to investigate the small sample properties of the estimators and test statistics. A secondary objective of the Monte Carlo simulations is the comparison of two transformation procedures. The simulations are of standard-item paired-compar-ison experiments in which ties are not allowed. 相似文献
147.
《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(4):619-640
ABSTRACT Area statistics are sample versions of areas occurring in a probability plot of two distribution functions F and G. This paper presents a unified basis for five statistics of this type. They can be used for various testing problems in the framework of the two sample problem for independent observations, such as testing equality of distributions against inequality or testing stochastic dominance of distributions in one or either direction against nondominance. Though three of the statistics considered have already been suggested in literature, two of them are new and deserve our interest. The finite sample distributions of the statistics (under F=G) can be calculated via recursion formulae. Two tables with critical values of the new statistics are included. The asymptotic distribution of the properly normalized versions of the area statistics are functionals of the Brownian bridge. The distribution functions and quantiles thereof are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the power functions of the two new tests based on area statistics are compared to the power functions of the tests based on the corresponding supremum statistics, i.e., statistics of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov type. 相似文献
148.
In this paper the generalized compound Rayleigh model, exhibiting flexible hazard rate, is high¬lighted. This makes it attractive for modelling survival times of patients showing characteristics of a random hazard rate. The Bayes estimators are derived for the parameters of this model and some survival time parameters from a right censored sample. This is done with respect to conjugate and discrete priors on the parameters of this model, under the squared error loss function, Varian's asymmetric linear-exponential (linex) loss function and a weighted linex loss function. The future survival time of a patient is estimated under these loss functions. A Monte Carlo simu¬lation procedure is used where closed form expressions of the estimators cannot be obtained. An example illustrates the proposed estimators for this model. 相似文献
149.
The spread of an emerging infectious disease is a major public health threat. Given the uncertainties associated with vector-borne diseases, in terms of vector dynamics and disease transmission, it is critical to develop statistical models that address how and when such an infectious disease could spread throughout a region such as the USA. This paper considers a spatio-temporal statistical model for how an infectious disease could be carried into the USA by migratory waterfowl vectors during their seasonal migration and, ultimately, the risk of transmission of such a disease to domestic fowl. Modeling spatio-temporal data of this type is inherently difficult given the uncertainty associated with observations, complexity of the dynamics, high dimensionality of the underlying process, and the presence of excessive zeros. In particular, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the waterfowl migration are developed by way of a two-tiered functional temporal and spatial dimension reduction procedure that captures spatial and seasonal trends, as well as regional dynamics. Furthermore, the model relates the migration to a population of poultry farms that are known to be susceptible to such diseases, and is one of the possible avenues toward transmission to domestic poultry and humans. The result is a predictive distribution of those counties containing poultry farms that are at the greatest risk of having the infectious disease infiltrate their flocks assuming that the migratory population was infected. The model naturally fits into the hierarchical Bayesian framework. 相似文献
150.
王发明 《北京工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2009,9(3):14-19
基于供应链集成的网络式新产品开发,不是从一个企业或企业集团层面看,而是从整个产业的层面看,那就是新产品开发是由产业内价值链相关各企业及企业外部研发资源,利用企业间的互动机制,相互创意激发及技术交流而产生新产品的一种模式,这种模式的最大优势是全体参与者的共同参与,发挥全体参与者团体作用的优势,强调产品开发流程,以产出为衡量基准,强调“产出成本效率”的业绩评估体系以及通过对外部资源的充分利用,强调“资源优化和无缝对接”和有效配套管理。 相似文献