全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1618篇 |
免费 | 29篇 |
国内免费 | 8篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 193篇 |
民族学 | 2篇 |
人口学 | 14篇 |
丛书文集 | 12篇 |
理论方法论 | 16篇 |
综合类 | 132篇 |
社会学 | 51篇 |
统计学 | 1235篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 4篇 |
2023年 | 21篇 |
2022年 | 22篇 |
2021年 | 11篇 |
2020年 | 31篇 |
2019年 | 50篇 |
2018年 | 50篇 |
2017年 | 99篇 |
2016年 | 46篇 |
2015年 | 38篇 |
2014年 | 72篇 |
2013年 | 341篇 |
2012年 | 103篇 |
2011年 | 56篇 |
2010年 | 45篇 |
2009年 | 53篇 |
2008年 | 73篇 |
2007年 | 65篇 |
2006年 | 60篇 |
2005年 | 64篇 |
2004年 | 42篇 |
2003年 | 48篇 |
2002年 | 38篇 |
2001年 | 36篇 |
2000年 | 32篇 |
1999年 | 35篇 |
1998年 | 38篇 |
1997年 | 17篇 |
1996年 | 13篇 |
1995年 | 7篇 |
1994年 | 7篇 |
1993年 | 4篇 |
1992年 | 5篇 |
1991年 | 1篇 |
1990年 | 3篇 |
1989年 | 4篇 |
1988年 | 3篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
1986年 | 2篇 |
1985年 | 3篇 |
1984年 | 4篇 |
1983年 | 1篇 |
1982年 | 4篇 |
1981年 | 2篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1655条查询结果,搜索用时 9 毫秒
11.
THOMAS RICHARDSON 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2003,30(1):145-157
We consider acyclic directed mixed graphs, in which directed edges ( x → y ) and bi-directed edges ( x ↔ y ) may occur. A simple extension of Pearl's d -separation criterion, called m -separation, is applied to these graphs. We introduce a local Markov property which is equivalent to the global property resulting from the m -separation criterion for arbitrary distributions. 相似文献
12.
Valentine Genon-Catalot Thierry Jeantheau Catherine Laredo 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2003,30(2):297-316
ABSTRACT. This paper develops a new contrast process for parametric inference of general hidden Markov models, when the hidden chain has a non-compact state space. This contrast is based on the conditional likelihood approach, often used for ARCH-type models. We prove the strong consistency of the conditional likelihood estimators under appropriate conditions. The method is applied to the Kalman filter (for which this contrast and the exact likelihood lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators) and to the discretely observed stochastic volatility models. 相似文献
13.
JØRUND GÅSEMYR 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2003,30(1):159-173
In this paper, we present a general formulation of an algorithm, the adaptive independent chain (AIC), that was introduced in a special context in Gåsemyr et al . [ Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab. 3 (2001)]. The algorithm aims at producing samples from a specific target distribution Π, and is an adaptive, non-Markovian version of the Metropolis–Hastings independent chain. A certain parametric class of possible proposal distributions is fixed, and the parameters of the proposal distribution are updated periodically on the basis of the recent history of the chain, thereby obtaining proposals that get ever closer to Π. We show that under certain conditions, the algorithm produces an exact sample from Π in a finite number of iterations, and hence that it converges to Π. We also present another adaptive algorithm, the componentwise adaptive independent chain (CAIC), which may be an alternative in particular in high dimensions. The CAIC may be regarded as an adaptive approximation to the Gibbs sampler updating parametric approximations to the conditionals of Π. 相似文献
14.
Tommi Härkänen Hannu Hausen Jorma I. Virtanen Elja Arjas 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2003,30(3):523-533
Abstract A model is introduced here for multivariate failure time data arising from heterogenous populations. In particular, we consider a situation in which the failure times of individual subjects are often temporally clustered, so that many failures occur during a relatively short age interval. The clustering is modelled by assuming that the subjects can be divided into ‘internally homogenous’ latent classes, each such class being then described by a time‐dependent frailty profile function. As an example, we reanalysed the dental caries data presented earlier in Härkänen et al. [Scand. J. Statist. 27 (2000) 577], as it turned out that our earlier model could not adequately describe the observed clustering. 相似文献
15.
ALBERTO ROVERATO 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2005,32(2):295-312
Abstract. A Markov property associates a set of conditional independencies to a graph. Two alternative Markov properties are available for chain graphs (CGs), the Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg (LWF) and the Andersson–Madigan– Perlman (AMP) Markov properties, which are different in general but coincide for the subclass of CGs with no flags . Markov equivalence induces a partition of the class of CGs into equivalence classes and every equivalence class contains a, possibly empty, subclass of CGs with no flags itself containing a, possibly empty, subclass of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). LWF-Markov equivalence classes of CGs can be naturally characterized by means of the so-called largest CGs , whereas a graphical characterization of equivalence classes of DAGs is provided by the essential graphs . In this paper, we show the existence of largest CGs with no flags that provide a natural characterization of equivalence classes of CGs of this kind, with respect to both the LWF- and the AMP-Markov properties. We propose a procedure for the construction of the largest CGs, the largest CGs with no flags and the essential graphs, thereby providing a unified approach to the problem. As by-products we obtain a characterization of graphs that are largest CGs with no flags and an alternative characterization of graphs which are largest CGs. Furthermore, a known characterization of the essential graphs is shown to be a special case of our more general framework. The three graphical characterizations have a common structure: they use two versions of a locally verifiable graphical rule. Moreover, in case of DAGs, an immediate comparison of three characterizing graphs is possible. 相似文献
16.
Sample selection in radiocarbon dating 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J. A. Christen & C. E. Buck 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》1998,47(4):543-557
Archaeologists working on the island of O'ahu, Hawai'i, use radiocarbon dating of samples of organic matter found trapped in fish-pond sediments to help them to learn about the chronology of the construction and use of the aquicultural systems created by the Polynesians. At one particular site, Loko Kuwili, 25 organic samples were obtained and funds were available to date an initial nine. However, on calibration to the calendar scale, the radiocarbon determinations provided date estimates that had very large variances. As a result, major issues of chronology remained unresolved and the archaeologists were faced with the prospect of another expensive programme of radiocarbon dating. This paper presents results of research that tackles the problems associated with selecting samples from those which are still available. Building on considerable recent research that utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to aid archaeologists in their radiocarbon calibration and interpretation, we adopt the standard Bayesian framework of risk functions, which allows us to assess the optimal samples to be sent for dating. Although rather computer intensive, our algorithms are simple to implement within the Bayesian radiocarbon framework that is already in place and produce results that are capable of direct interpretation by the archaeologists. By dating just three more samples from Loko Kuwili the expected variance on the date of greatest interest could be substantially reduced. 相似文献
17.
I. Bray & D. E. Wright 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》1998,47(4):589-602
Data collected before the routine application of prenatal screening are of unique value in estimating the natural live-birth prevalence of Down syndrome. However, much of these data are from births from over 20 years ago and they are of uncertain quality. In particular, they are subject to varying degrees of underascertainment. Published approaches have used ad hoc corrections to deal with this problem or have been restricted to data sets in which ascertainment is assumed to be complete. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach to modelling ascertainment and live-birth prevalence. We consider three prior specifications concerning ascertainment and compare predicted maternal-age-specific prevalence under these three different prior specifications. The computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in which model parameters and missing data are sampled. 相似文献
18.
基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯经验费率厘定信用模型 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
B黨lmann-Straub model is one of the most famous applications of the Bayesian method for the experience rate making.However,by the traditional B黨lmann-Straub model one cannot get the unbiased posterior estimation of the parameters when there is not sufficient prior information for the structural parameters;What's more,the difficult of computing high dimension numeration limits the application of Bayesian method.This paper introduces the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulaton method based on the Gibbs sampling after analyzing the structure of the B黨lmann-Straub model and sets up the Bayesian credibility model for estimating the predictive risk premium.Also by using the results of the numeration analysis,this paper proves that from this model one can get the posterior distributions of the parameters dynamically and the posterior estimation of the censoring parameters in the situation that exists unknown parameters,as well as improve the precision of the numeration,which can be helpful to find the heterogeneity of the premium. 相似文献
19.
This paper describes a technique for computing approximate maximum pseudolikelihood estimates of the parameters of a spatial point process. The method is an extension of Berman & Turner's (1992) device for maximizing the likelihoods of inhomogeneous spatial Poisson processes. For a very wide class of spatial point process models the likelihood is intractable, while the pseudolikelihood is known explicitly, except for the computation of an integral over the sampling region. Approximation of this integral by a finite sum in a special way yields an approximate pseudolikelihood which is formally equivalent to the (weighted) likelihood of a loglinear model with Poisson responses. This can be maximized using standard statistical software for generalized linear or additive models, provided the conditional intensity of the process takes an 'exponential family' form. Using this approach a wide variety of spatial point process models of Gibbs type can be fitted rapidly, incorporating spatial trends, interaction between points, dependence on spatial covariates, and mark information. 相似文献
20.
Binary probability maps using a hidden conditional autoregressive Gaussian process with an application to Finnish common toad data 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
I. S. Weir & A. N. Pettitt 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2000,49(4):473-484
The Finnish common toad data of Heikkinen and Hogmander are reanalysed using an alternative fully Bayesian model that does not require a pseudolikelihood approximation and an alternative prior distribution for the true presence or absence status of toads in each 10 km×10 km square. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior probability estimates of the square-specific presences of the common toad and these are presented as a map. The results are different from those of Heikkinen and Hogmander and we offer an explanation in terms of the prior used for square-specific presence of the toads. We suggest that our approach is more faithful to the data and avoids unnecessary confounding of effects. We demonstrate how to extend our model efficiently with square-specific covariates and illustrate this by introducing deterministic spatial changes. 相似文献