Confidence limits and prediction limits for a Weibull distribution based on the generalized variable approach

In this article, we consider the problems of constructing confidence interval for a Weibull mean and setting prediction limits for future samples. Specifically, we construct upper prediction limits that include at least l$l$ of m$m$ samples from a Weibull distribution at each of r$r$ locations. The methods are based on the concept of generalized variable approach. The procedures can be easily extended to the type II censored samples, and they can be used to find approximate inferential procedures for type I censored samples. The proposed methods are conceptually simple and easy to use. The results are illustrated using some practical examples.     

青年婚配类型与夫妻关系——全国五大城市1216名已婚青年的调查分析

基于全国五大城市1216名已婚青年的调查资料,对目前城市青年家庭的不同婚配类型与夫妻关系之间的关联性进行探讨。研究结果表明,不同年龄匹配类型、不同文化程度匹配类型,以及不同收入水平匹配类型三个方面与青年家庭的夫妻关系状况无关;而不同城乡背景匹配类型、不同独生子女身份匹配类型两方面则与青年家庭的夫妻关系状况有关。研究揭示出,改革开放背景中成长的一代青年在个体特征上更具同质性,对他们的夫妻关系真正产生影响的因素,主要是他们在社会特征上的差别。今后的夫妻关系研究,在测量指标方面增加心理量表的内容或许是一个新的方向。     

Do Mexicans flee from violence? The effects of drug-related violence on migration decisions in Mexico

This paper attempts to identify the existence of displacement in Mexico caused by drug-related violence. We identify two types of migrants: (i) migrants moving from nonviolent to violent states, driven by better economic opportunities and less expensive cost of living at destination and (ii) migrants moving from violent to nonviolent states: they still migrate even if the cost of living at destination is more expensive and economic opportunities are lower. Our hypothesis is that for the second type, migrants are fleeing from violence, and are willing to sacrifice economic opportunities in order to gain safety. For instance, when migrants move from nonviolent to violent states, they demand a salary 25% greater in order to increase the odds of migration in 10%. On the contrary, when migrants move from violent to nonviolent states, they only demand an increase in their salary of 15%.     

How many people participated in candlelight protests? Counting the size of a dynamic crowd

The recent controversy about the size of crowds at candlelight protests in Korea raises an interesting question regarding the methods used to estimate crowd size. Protest organizers tend to count all participants in the event from its start to finish, while the police usually report the crowd size at its peak. While several counting methods are available to estimate the size of a crowd at a given time, counting the total number of the participants at a protest is not straightforward. In this paper, we propose a new estimator to count the total number of participants that we call the size of a dynamic crowd. We assume that the arrival and departure times of the crowd are randomly observed and that the number of the attendees in the crowd at a specific time is estimable. We estimate the number of total attendees during the entire gathering based on the capture-recapture model. We also propose a bootstrap procedure to construct a confidence interval for the crowd size. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method with simulation studies and the data from Korea''s March for Science, a global event across the world on Earth Day, April 22, 2017.     

医疗侵权损害赔偿中的证明责任研究

全面认识和了解医疗损害赔偿诉讼中适用的证明责任分配规则,是切实保护医疗损害受害人合法权益的关键。我国法律对医疗损害赔偿诉讼案件应依据案件的具体情况,适用有限制的证明责任倒置、高度盖然性、妨碍证明理论等不同的证明责任分配规则,从而保证医疗损害案件裁决的客观与公正。     

系统状态概率矩阵在企业集群中的应用

阐述了马尔可夫决策理论中的最基本分析方法———系统状态转移概率矩阵决策法,针对企业集群的特点,运用系统状态转移概率矩阵决策法对企业集群市场的状态进行了分析,并对各种状态的未来分布趋势和分布状况进行预测,分别计算出各种类型企业的未来市场资源份额,给政府进行市场的调节提供了理论上的依据和方法上的指导。     

浙江万马比赛能力的综合评价研究

通过2003年度甲A篮球联赛14支强旅常规赛26轮战绩技术统计数据的收集与整理，运用统计学离差法、RSR综合评价法，量化评价指标中对浙江万马男篮在比赛中技、战术的运用进行分析，为提高训练与竞赛水平提供一些参考．     

带干扰的双险种Cox风险模型

给出了一个较一般的风险模型即带干扰的双险种Cox风险模型,并运用鞅的方法得出了保险公司的最终破产概率ψ(u)的不等式,使得用它来研究保险公司的盈利更符合实际情况,更具有实际意义.     

我国通货膨胀率的动态波动机制及政策启示

本文应用Markov区制转移模型研究了1987-2008年2月我国通货膨胀率的动态波动路径。研究结果表明,我国通货膨胀波动存在显著的三区制特征:低通胀区制、温和通胀区制和高通胀区制。同时,得到了以下结论:(1)我国的通货膨胀在大部分时期都处于低通胀或温和通胀区制;(2)我国的通胀惯性在低通胀区制较低,在温和通胀和高通胀区制较高(接近于1),因此我国的经济政策应具有前瞻性;(3)三区制Markov区制转移模型能较好地刻画我国近20年来的高通胀事件,因此本模型也可以用于通胀预警机制的研究。     

The echelon Markov and Chebyshev inequalities

Abstract

A multivariate version of the sharp Markov inequality is derived, when associated probabilities are extended to segments of the supports of non-negative random variables, where the probabilities take echelon forms. It is shown that when some positive lower bounds of these probabilities are available, the multivariate Markov inequality without the echelon forms is improved. The corresponding results for Chebyshev’s inequality are also obtained.