Approximate and Fiducial Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Binomial Proportions

The problem of estimating the difference between two binomial proportions is considered. Closed-form approximate confidence intervals (CIs) and a fiducial CI for the difference between proportions are proposed. The approximate CIs are simple to compute, and they perform better than the classical Wald CI in terms of coverage probabilities and precision. Numerical studies indicate that these approximate CIs can be used safely for practical applications under a simple condition. The fiducial CI is more accurate than the approximate CIs in terms of coverage probabilities. The fiducial CIs, the Newcombe CIs, and the Miettinen–Nurminen CIs are comparable in terms of coverage probabilities and precision. The interval estimation procedures are illustrated using two examples.     

An application of linear feature selection to estimation of proportions

Let X be a random n-vector whose density function is given by a mixture of known multivariate normal density functions where the corresponding mixture proportions (a priori probabilities) are unknown. We present a numerically tractable method for obtaining estimates of the mixture proportions based on the linear feature selection technique of Guseman, Peters and Walker (1975).     

An emprical bayes approach to two-sample problems with censored data

Empirical Bayes methods are used in estimating the probability based on randomly right-censored samples. The estimator is shown to be asymptotically optimal. Thus, in a way, this uork is similar to the results of Hollander and Korwar (1976) who used a similar approach in estimating A in the case of non-censored data. We also give hero a shorter proof to their rate result. In addition, a. resting procedure is obtained to test the hypothesis against on the basis of censored data. It is shown that this procedure is asymptotically optimal with rate of convergence n . Tnis result is analogous to our earlier result for the uncensored case (1970) The empirical Hayes procedure has been illustrated by means of a practical example.     

A structural model for the markov chain of change in vote intention

Assuming a first-order Markov chain, we propose a structural model for the transition probabilities in vote intention. The proposed model utilizes the ordering among the categories representing vote intentions and carries the flavor of distance models. It also allows a stochastic ordering among distributions reflecting the extent of change. The model is easy to fit and provides a nice interpretation of the data. The model is applied to a panel study of vote intention acquired through six successive interviews before the 1940 Presidential election in Erie County, Ohio.     

Bayes and empirical bayes estimation of survival function under progressive censoring

The purpose of this note is to derive the Bayes and the empirical Bayes estimators of an unknown survival function F under progressively censored data with respect to the squared error loss function and a Dirichlet process prior using the fact that the posterior distribution of F given the data is a mixture of Dirichlet processes, and the assumption that the survival and the censor in0- distributions are continuous.     

Balancing type I and type II error probabilities: further comments on proof of safety vs proof of hazard

This paper elaborates on earlier contributions of Bross (1985) and Millard (1987) who point out that when conducting conventional hypothesis tests in order to “prove” environmental hazard or environmental safety, unrealistically large sample sizes are required to achieve acceptable power with customarily-used values of Type I error probability. These authors also note that “proof of safety” typically requires much larger sample sizes than “proof of hazard”. When the sample has yet to be selected and it is feared that the sample size will be insufficient to conduct a reasonable.     

On optimality of the horvitz-thompson estimator under a markov process model

For any varying probability sampling design the Horvitz-Thompson (1952) estimator is shown to be optimal within the class of all unbiased estimators of a finite population total under a Markov process model     

Discriminant analysis with stratified prior probabilities

This study investigates the use of stratification to improve discrimination when prior probabilities vary across strata of a population of interest. Sources of heterogeneity in prior probabilities include differences in geographic locale, age differences in the population studied, or differences in the time component of the data collected. The article suggests using logistic regression both to identify the underlying stratification and to estimate prior probabilities. A simulation study compares misclassification rates under two alternative stratification schemes with the traditional discriminant approach that ignores stratification in favor of pooled prior estimates. The simulations show that large asymptotic gains can be realized by stratification, and that these gains can be realized in finite samples, given moderate differences in prior probabilities.