查田运动与中央苏区民众动员

江西苏雏埃时期兴起的查田运动，是苏区传统农村阶级基础的重建和再造的过程。它开创了一种社会革命的动员模式——这种模式通过一种“阶级”的话语表达，结合大多数农民具体权益的满足，凭借有着极强渗透力和保障功能的基层组织，将传统社会的地方、血缘、宗法关系等内核，创造性转化为土地革命中的积极因素：通过查田运动，苏维埃政府与民众的联系空前紧密，不时经受着洗刷的基层组织也具备了一种动态式的活力，成功地实现了苏区的阶级基础再造，最终达到苏区民众的革命性动员的目的。     

Bivariate income distributions with lognormal conditionals

In this paper, the most general bivariate distribution with lognormal conditionals is fully characterized, using the methodology proposed by [3]. The properties of the new family are studied in detail, including marginal and conditional distributions, regression functions, dependence measures, moments and inequality measures. The new distribution is very broad, and contains as a particular case the classical bivariate lognormal distribution. Several subfamilies are studied and a generalization of the basic model is discussed. Finally, we present an empirical application. We estimate and compare the basic model proposed in the paper with a classical model, using data from the European Community Household Panel in different periods of time.     

Stochastic Production Frontier and Technical Inefficiency: A Sensitivity Analysis

The present paper focuses attention on the sensitivity of technical inefficiency to most commonly used one-sided distributions of the inefficiency error term, namely the truncated normal, the half-normal, and the exponential distributions. A generalized version of the half-normal, which does not embody the zero-mean restriction, is also explored. For each distribution, the likelihood function and the counterpart of the estimator of technical efficiency are explicitly stated (Jondrow, J., Lovell, C. A. K., Materov, I. S., Schmidt, P. ([1982]), On estimation of technical inefficiency in the stochastic frontier production function model, J. Econometrics19:233-238). Based on our panel data set, related to Tunisian manufacturing firms over the period 1983-1993, formal tests lead to a strong rejection of the zero-mean restriction embodied in the half normal distribution. Our main conclusion is that the degree of measured inefficiency is very sensitive to the postulated assumptions about the distribution of the one-sided error term. The estimated inefficiency indices are, however, unaffected by the choice of the functional form for the production function.     

试论辽宁农业结构与布局调整

辽宁农业的发展应以市场为导向,从以数量为中心转向以质量和效益为中心,通过调整农业的品种结构、产业结构和区域布局,提高农产品的质量,加快农业产业化进程,进而发挥辽宁农业的比较优势,提高市场竞争力,解决好增产与增收的问题。     

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

论劳动力胀供给膨对宏观经济运行的不良影响

劳动力供给膨胀问题是一个严重的社会问题,劳动力供给膨胀对宏观经济的运行产生许多不良影响,集中体现在市场经济效率、社会财富分配、社会稳定三个方面。研究劳动力供给膨胀对一个国家构建和谐社会具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。     

我国利用外商直接投资的区域分布研究

从我国利用外商直接投资的地区分布存在"东热西冷"的现象入手,分析了造成这种地区分布失衡的原因,并在此基础上对利用外商直接投资促进区域协调发展提出了相应的对策.     

Power of the Neyman Smooth Test for Evaluating Multivariate Forecast Densities

We compare and investigate Neyman's smooth test, its components, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test for testing the uniformity of multivariate forecast densities. Simulations indicate that the KS test lacks power when the forecast distributions are misspecified, especially for correlated sequences of random variables. Neyman's smooth test and its components work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are size distortions. The components provide directed diagnosis regarding the kind of departure from the null. For illustration, the tests are applied to forecast densities obtained from a bivariate threshold model fitted to high-frequency financial data.     

Multivariate Life Testing in Variably Scaled Environments

This paper examines modeling and inference questions for experiments in which different subsets of a set of k possibly dependent components are tested in r different environments. In each environment, the failure times of the set of components on test is assumed to be governed by a particular type of multivariate exponential (MVE) distribution. For any given component tested in several environments, it is assumed that its marginal failure rate varies from one environment to another via a change of scale between the environments, resulting in a joint MVE model which links in a natural way the applicable MVE distributions describing component behavior in each fixed environment. This study thus extends the work of Proschan and Sullo (1976) to multiple environments and the work of Kvam and Samaniego (1993) to dependent data. The problem of estimating model parameters via the method of maximum likelihood is examined in detail. First, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of model parameters are established. We then treat the derivation of the MLE via a numerically-augmented application of the EM algorithm. The feasibility of the estimation method is demonstrated in an example in which the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis of equal component failure rates within any given environment is carried out.     

Testing for ordered failure rates under general progressive censoring

For exponentially distributed failure times under general progressive censoring schemes, testing procedures for ordered failure rates are proposed using the likelihood ratio principle. Constrained maximum likelihood estimators of the failure rates are found. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are shown to be mixtures of chi-square distributions. When testing the equality of the failure rates, a simulation study shows that the proposed test with restricted alternative has improved power over the usual chi-square statistic with an unrestricted alternative. The proposed methods are illustrated using data of survival times of patients with squamous carcinoma of the oropharynx.