具有延误休假的一个基本可修系统的可靠性分析

本文讨论了由两个同型部件和一个修理工组成的可修系统。假定修理工空闲时进行延误休假。部件的修理时间和修理工的假期均服从一般分布，休假前的延误期为指数分布。我们求得了这个系统的可用度、可靠度和故障频度。作为特例，我们还讨论了修理工进行不延误休假的情况。     

遗传算法在入侵检测中的应用

介绍了基于模型推理和基于模型两种入侵检测系统,提出了一种新的基于智能体技术的入侵检测系统体系结构,解决了传统集中式入侵检测系统的弊病,将任务处理和数据分布到网络各个结点上,充分利用网络资源协同完成入侵检测任务;介绍了遗传算法在该系统中的应用,因系统安全的先验知识体现在对原始数据中有价值特征属性变量集的选择上,故利用遗传算法对特征属性变量子集的选择进行优化,找到相对最优的由特征向量表示的特征属性变量集,以降低入侵检测系统的负荷。     

裂缝天线缝制造精度对电性能影响的预测

为了避免传统方法在分析结构因素对电性能影响时需要假设和近似处理的弊端,提出了根据平板裂缝天线生产制造中的数据,使用支持向量回归建立缝制造精度对电性能指标影响的预测方法。给出了一种以最小化支持向量回归的拟合能力和泛化能力为目标函数来选择支持向量回归机参数的方法,以方便该方法的工程应用。案例研究表明,该方法能够较准确地预测缝制造精度对电性能的影响;与传统的BP神经网络和最小二乘法对比,该方法具有更好的泛化能力,可以应用到平板裂缝天线的计算机辅助制造中。     

双重政策目标下的货币政策传导机制研究

运用误差修正模型和协整检验对我国货币政策传导机制和货币政策有效性问题进行实证研究。结果表明,在二元政策目标框架下,货币供给具有较强的外生性,中央银行对通货膨胀的厌恶性正逐渐超过对经济增长的偏好性;相对于信贷渠道而言,货币渠道对货币政策传导的贡献度不高,货币政策主要通过信货渠道来影响总需求。     

孔子“仁学”的三个层次

孔子“仁学”的三个层次包括仁之情感、仁之理性和仁之规范。仁之情感是指仁作为一种具有博爱精神的人文主义情怀,它由亲人及大众,由社会及自然,在具有广泛性的同时又具有层次性。仁之理性是指仁作为根本的道德原则,其基本内容是“己欲立而立人,己欲达而达人”和“己所不欲,勿施于人”。仁之规范是指仁作为相对具体的行为准则,主要包括“义”、“礼”和“中庸”。     

论先秦儒家中庸之异

中庸作为先秦儒家的重要范畴,在"何为中"问题上,大儒们的回答有所不同。孔子将其视为哲学方法论意义上的"道",从全局和全面出发,主张"全为中";子思将中庸上升为宇宙的本体,并认为诚是上达该本体的唯一正确途径,从而提出"诚为中";孟子从性善论出发,必然推演为"仁义为中";荀子为恢复孔子的中庸之道,纠偏思孟的"德性为中",倡导"规范为中"。     

A new estimation method for Weibull-type tails based on the mean excess function

Studying the right tail of a distribution, one can classify the distributions into three classes based on the extreme value index γ$\gamma$. The class γ>0$\gamma >0$ corresponds to Pareto-type or heavy tailed distributions, while γ<0$\gamma <0$ indicates that the underlying distribution has a finite endpoint. The Weibull-type distributions form an important subgroup within the Gumbel class with γ=0$\gamma =0$. The tail behaviour can then be specified using the Weibull tail index. Classical estimators of this index show severe bias. In this paper we present a new estimation approach based on the mean excess function, which exhibits improved bias and mean squared error. The asserted properties are supported by simulation experiments and asymptotic results. Illustrations with real life data sets are provided.     

On generalised estimating equations for vector regression

Generalised estimating equations (GEE) for regression problems with vector‐valued responses are examined. When the response vectors are of mixed type (e.g. continuous–binary response pairs), the GEE approach is a semiparametric alternative to full‐likelihood copula methods, and is closely related to Prentice & Zhao's mean‐covariance estimation equations approach. When the response vectors are of the same type (e.g. measurements on left and right eyes), the GEE approach can be viewed as a ‘plug‐in’ to existing methods, such as the vglm function from the state‐of‐the‐art VGAM package in R. In either scenario, the GEE approach offers asymptotically correct inferences on model parameters regardless of whether the working variance–covariance model is correctly or incorrectly specified. The finite‐sample performance of the method is assessed using simulation studies based on a burn injury dataset and a sorbinil eye trial dataset. The method is applied to data analysis examples using the same two datasets, as well as to a trivariate binary dataset on three plant species in the Hunua ranges of Auckland.     

Dynamic version of weighted cumulative residual entropy

Some extensions of Shannon entropy to the survival function have been recently proposed. Misagh et al. (2011 Misagh, F., Panahi, Y., Yari, G.H., Shahi, R. (2011, September). Weighted cumulative entropy and its estimation. In: Quality and Reliability (ICQR), 2011, IEEE International conference (pp. 477–480), IEEE.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) introduced weighted cumulative residual entropy (WCRE) that was studied more by Mirali et al. (2015 Mirali, M., Baratpour, S., Fakoor, V. (2015). On weighted cumulative residual entropy. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods. doi:10.1080103610926.2015.1053932.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In this article, the dynamic version of WCRE is proposed. Some relationships of this measure with well-known reliability measures and ageing classes are studied and some characterization results for exponential and Rayleigh distributions are provided. Also, a non parametric estimation of dynamic version of WCRE is introduced and its asymptotic behavior is investigated.     

More on the restricted Liu estimator in the logistic regression model

?iray et al. proposed a restricted Liu estimator to overcome multicollinearity in the logistic regression model. They also used a Monte Carlo simulation to study the properties of the restricted Liu estimator. However, they did not present the theoretical result about the mean squared error properties of the restricted estimator compared to MLE, restricted maximum likelihood estimator (RMLE) and Liu estimator. In this article, we compare the restricted Liu estimator with MLE, RMLE and Liu estimator in the mean squared error sense and we also present a method to choose a biasing parameter. Finally, a real data example and a Monte Carlo simulation are conducted to illustrate the benefits of the restricted Liu estimator.