增长曲线模型非齐次线性估计的可容许性

讨论增长曲线模型Y =X1BX2 +ε中回归矩阵B的函数C1BC2 的估计L1YL2 +A ,在矩阵损失 (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B T 下 ,我们得到了非齐次线性估计L1YL2 +A在非齐次线性估计类Г ={L1YL2 +A|L1:t×p ,L2 ;n×n ,A :t×s均为已知实阵 }中可容许的充要条件 :L1YL2在Г0 ={L1YL2 |L1:t×p ,L2 :n×s均为已知实阵 }中容许且当LT2 XT2 L1X1=ST2 XT2 S1X1时有A =0。     

TESTING SPHERICITY UNDER A MIXTURE MODEL

The robustness of Mauchly's sphericity test criterion when sampling from a mixture of two multivariate normal distributions is studied. The distribution of the sphericity test criterion when the sample covariance matrix has a non-central Wishart density of rank one is derived in terms of Meijer's G-functions; its distribution under the mixture model is then deduced. The robustness is studied by computing actual significance levels of the test under the mixture model using the critical values under the usual normal model.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

论非实践性真理标准说的历史形态

非实践性真理标准是前马克思真理标准说的共性。它有理性、感觉、经验和实验等四种历史形态 :理性标准表面上肯定真理的客观性 ,实际上否认真理的客观性 ;感觉标准具有主观唯心主义的特点 ;经验标准承认真理的客观性但还停留在认识的领域 ;实验标准预告着科学真理标准即将诞生。实践标准的确立来之不易 ,是一场认识论上的革命     

上海市空气污染造成人群健康经济损失的研究

文章通过对上海市空气污染季节性状况的描述 ,分析了各种污染物的污染程度和变化趋势 ,并利用对上海某市级医院的实地调查数据 ,对空气污染物与医院呼吸系统疾病患者日门诊量之间的相关关系进行研讨 ,建立了多元分析模型 ,探讨了患者健康经济损失的计量方法 ,并对由空气污染造成呼吸系统疾病患者健康经济损失进行了估算。研究表明 ,在其他条件不变的情况下 ,NOX 日指数每增长 10 % ,被调查医院呼吸系统疾病患者的日门诊人次增加 7 7人次 ,而这些疾病患者由于患病产生的年度健康经济损失为 2 11万元。据此作保守的推断估计 ,上海市一年内因NOX 超标而发生的呼吸系统疾病门诊行为造成的健康经济损失可以达到 4 2亿元。同样 ,SO2 和TSP造成门诊患者的健康经济损失分别为 1 5亿元和 0 86亿元     

持有型犯罪立法理念偏差及价值冲突检讨

对于持有型犯罪的基本理论问题的争议一直存在,但是,目前刑法学界局限于研究如何界定“持有”的行为属性,以及持有型犯罪的定义、范围等形式层面,而不重视从立法意图、规范角度等实质层面评价持有型犯罪。为了弥补这一缺陷,检讨了持有型犯罪的立法基准是否妥当、罪刑配置是否均衡、规范设计是否存在缺陷、立法价值取向等问题,指出持有型犯罪目前存在的理念偏差及价值冲突问题,并认为持有型犯罪立法不应扩张。     

“He Survives Everything”: A Latency-Aged Child with Play Disruption in the Face of Trauma and Early Object Loss

It is hypothesized that trauma and early object loss result in the arrest of the normal and healthy progression of a child's development and also disrupts a child's capacity to engage in symbolic play. In therapy, over time, with a constant object, a latency-aged child was able to re-enact early trauma and loss, make substantial gains in development, and begin to play in a symbolic and expressive way.     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

将ISO9001标准应用于实习工厂质量管理的探研

文章探讨了用ISO90 0 0族标准在高校实习工厂建立质量管理体系的可行性和基本策略 ,明确相关术语和定义 ,确立质量方针与质量目标 ,概括描述了质量手册、程序文件、作业性指导文件和质量记录的内容与框架。