国有商业银行资本市场业务研究

本文首先从国际金融界混业经营 ,国内银行、保险、证券三业互相渗透共同发展 ,我国资本市场发展对银行传统业务的冲击 ,以及加入 WTO挑战的需要等方面论述了国有商业银行拓展资本市场业务的客观现实性。其次 ,从资本市场规模、银行和证券公司、基金、保险公司的业务合作领域 ,以及合作的层次和市场发展潜力等方面阐述了国有商业银行进行资本市场业务创新的动因及其目前在资本市场业务方面存在的问题和解决办法。进而分析了进一步拓展资本市场业务从建立战略同盟、壮大资金实力和实现综合经营有效切入的问题     

Changing times: Migrants’ social network analysis and the challenges of longitudinal research

Focusing on migrant social networks, this paper draws upon the sociology of time to incorporate complex notions of temporality into the research process. In so doing, we consider firstly, the challenge of going ‘beyond the snapshot’ in data collection to capture dynamism through time. Secondly, we apply the concepts of timescapes to explore ways of addressing the wider context and the interplay between spatiality, temporality and relationality in migration research. We argue that integrating a mixed methods approach to SNA, crucially including visualisation, can provide a useful methodological and analytical framework to understand dynamics.SNA can also be helpful in bridging the personal and structural dimensions in migration research, by providing a meso level of analysis. However, it is also important to connect the investigation of local and transnational networks with an analysis of the broader social, economic and political contexts in which these take shape; in other words, connecting the micro and the meso with the wider macro level. Drawing upon reflections from our migration research studies, we argue that different combinations of quantitative, qualitative and visual methods do not just provide richer sets of data and insights, but can allow us to better connect conceptualisations – and ontologies – of social networks with specific methodological frameworks.     

Causal inferences on the effectiveness of complex social programs: Navigating assumptions,sources of complexity and evaluation design challenges

This paper explores avenues for navigating evaluation design challenges posed by complex social programs (CSPs) and their environments when conducting studies that call for generalizable, causal inferences on the intervention’s effectiveness. A definition is provided of a CSP drawing on examples from different fields, and an evaluation case is analyzed in depth to derive seven (7) major sources of complexity that typify CSPs, threatening assumptions of textbook-recommended experimental designs for performing impact evaluations. Theoretically-supported, alternative methodological strategies are discussed to navigate assumptions and counter the design challenges posed by the complex configurations and ecology of CSPs. Specific recommendations include: sequential refinement of the evaluation design through systems thinking, systems-informed logic modeling; and use of extended term, mixed methods (ETMM) approaches with exploratory and confirmatory phases of the evaluation. In the proposed approach, logic models are refined through direct induction and interactions with stakeholders. To better guide assumption evaluation, question-framing, and selection of appropriate methodological strategies, a multiphase evaluation design is recommended.     

A Lower Bound for the Wrap-around L2-discrepancy on Combined Designs of Mixed Two- and Three-level Factorials

The objective of this article is to study the issue of employing the uniformity criterion measured by wrap-around L₂-discrepancy to assess the optimal foldover plans. For mixed two- and three-level fractional factorials as the original designs, general foldover plan and combined design under a foldover plan are defined, and the equivalence between any foldover plan and its complementary foldover plan is investigated. A lower bound of wrap-around L₂-discrepancy of combined designs under a general foldover plan is obtained, which can be used as a benchmark for searching optimal foldover plans. Moreover, it also provides a theoretical justification for optimal foldover plans in terms of uniformity criterion.     

Use of concurrent mixed methods combining concept mapping and focus groups to adapt a health equity tool in Canada

The aim of this project was to identify and prioritize a set of conditions to be considered for incorporating a health equity tool into public health practice. Concept mapping and focus groups were implemented as complementary methods to investigate the conditions of use of a health equity tool by public health organizations in Quebec. Using a hybrid integrated research design is a richer way to address the complexity of questions emerging from intervention and planning settings. This approach provides a deeper, operational, and contextualized understanding of research results involving different professional and organizational cultures, and thereby supports the decision-making process. Concept mapping served to identify and prioritize in a limited timeframe the conditions to be considered for incorporation into a health equity tool into public health practices. Focus groups then provided a more refined understanding of the barriers, issues, and facilitating factors surrounding the tools adoption, helped distinguish among participants’ perspectives based on functional roles and organizational contexts, and clarified some apparently contradictory results from the concept map. The combined use of these two techniques brought the strengths of each approach to bear, thereby overcoming some of the respective limitations of concept mapping and focus groups. This design is appropriate for investigating targets with multiple levels of complexity.     

一类有广泛适用性的综合控制算法

将闭环极点配置、史密斯予估和自适应控制策略有机地结合起来,提出了一类单、多变量自校正史密斯予估综合控制算法。并用数字仿真进行了验证。     

Asymptotic properties of a generalized regression-type predictor of a finite population variance in probability sampling

A system of predictors for estimating a finite population variance is defined and shown to be asymptotically design-unbiased (ADU) and asymptotically design-consistent (ADC) under probability sampling. An asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) of a generalized regression-type predictor, generated from the system, is obtained. The suggested predictor attains the minimum expected variance of any design-unbiased estimator when the superpopulation model is correct. The generalized regression-type predictor and the predictor suggested by Mukhopadhyay (1990) are compared.     

高教体制改革与我国高师教育的走势

自新中国成立以来,我国的师范教育基本上是以“定向型”为主。然而,进入20世纪90年代以来,由于受高校合并、高等师范院校内部专业结构调整,以及综合性高等学校试办师范学院等举措的影响,我国的高等师范教育正悄然地向“混合型”过渡。本对未来我国高等师范教育的发展模式问题进行了探讨。     

Minimax prediction in finite populations

In this paper, minimax predictors are considered for some population quantities of interest, under some specific superpopulation models. Minimax predictors are derived under a binomial superpopulation model. The well known ratio estimator is shown to be minimax under the usual simple regression normal model. Nonparametric minimax predictors are considered under some models. Some of the predictors considered also shown to be admis s ible.