Ties on the fringes of identity

I use data on part-American Indian children in the 1990 Census 5% PUMS to assess my hypotheses that thick racial ties within the family constrain racial identification, and that structural aspects of the community (group size, inequality, and racial heterogeneity) affect racial identification when racial ties are thin within the family. American Indians present an interesting case study because their high levels of intermarriage and complex patterns of assimilation/identity retention for generations provide a varied group of people who could potentially identify their race as American Indian. Several hypotheses are supported by the data, signifying that racial identification among people with mixed-heritage is affected by the social world beyond individual psychology and racial ties within the family.     

论道家思想的伦理意蕴

作者对道家思想进行了概述,阐述了道家伦理思想的基本理论和内容,指出道家是中国思想文化史上的重要一家,与儒家和佛教并足而立,它们既相互排斥,又相辅相成,共同筑成中华民族传统文化的主要精神。     

关于中国金融业实行混业经营问题的思考

随着经济全球化、金融证券化、金融创新和金融信息化的不断深入,中国金融业必将实行混业经营。从整个金融业的分工演进过程,以及我国目前的经济状况和金融现实来看,我们正处在由分业经营向混业经营的过渡阶段。我国金融体制由分业向混业的转变离不开金融监管方式、机构和制度的变革。根据渐进式体制变革的思路,以及发达国家金融制度变革的经验,结合中国金融发展的实际,中国金融监管的改革,也要遵循渐进调整、改革的思路。     

论王粲与五言诗的成熟——兼证《七哀诗》、《杂诗》的写作时间

王粲《七哀诗》三首和《杂诗》都是建安十四年之后的作品。他在建安十四年之前的现存诗作,都是杂 言诗和四言诗;而其现存的五言诗作,全部是建安十四年之后的作品。王粲建安十四年之前的四言诗作尚属汉音, 建安十四年之后的五言诗作则纯乎魏响。这从一个侧面表明,大体上来说,从建安十四年至十六年是"汉音"与"魏 响"的分水岭。     

Selection of supply portfolio under disruption risks

This paper deals with the optimal selection of supply portfolio in a make-to-order environment in the presence of supply chain disruption risks. Given a set of customer orders for products, the decision maker needs to decide from which supplier to purchase custom parts required for each customer order to minimize total cost and mitigate the impact of disruption risks. The selection of suppliers and allocation of orders is based on price and quality of purchased parts and reliability of delivery. The two types of disruption scenarios are considered: scenarios with independent local disruptions of each supplier and scenarios with local and global disruptions that may result in all suppliers disruption simultaneously. The problem is formulated as a single- or bi-objective mixed integer program and a value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk approach is applied to control the risk of supply disruptions. The proposed portfolio approach is capable of optimizing the supply portfolio by calculating value-at-risk of cost per part and minimizing expected worst-case cost per part simultaneously. Numerical examples are presented and some computational results are reported.     

Multiyear,through the season crop acreage estimation using estimated acreage in sample segments

Large scale crop surveys can be made frequently and inex¬pensively during a crop growing season using Landsat data. A crop's at-harvest acreage in a stratum can be estimated from the crop's estimated at-harvest acreage in a small sample of the stratum's segments. The stratum estimate can utilize Landsat imagery obtained during the current crop grow¬ing season and in previous years. A mixed effects analysis of variance model is used to generate a weighted least squares es¬timate of the stratum at-harvest acreage proportion for the cur¬rent year. Similar Landsat based stratum crop proportion esti¬mates can be combined with historical information on non-sampled (or unsuccessfully sampled) strata to provide crop acreage estimates for large regions. These regional estimates of the at-harvest acreage can be determined early in the crop growing season, at different intermediate points, and at har¬vest time     

Mixed Correlated Bivariate Ordinal and Negative Binomial Longitudinal Responses with Nonignorable Missing Values

Regression models with random effects are proposed for joint analysis of negative binomial and ordinal longitudinal data with nonignorable missing values under fully parametric framework. The presented model simultaneously considers a multivariate probit regression model for the missing mechanisms, which provides the ability of examining the missing data assumptions and a multivariate mixed model for the responses. Random effects are used to take into account the correlation between longitudinal responses of the same individual. A full likelihood-based approach that allows yielding maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters is used. The model is applied to a medical data, obtained from an observational study on women, where the correlated responses are the ordinal response of osteoporosis of the spine and negative binomial response is the number of joint damage. A sensitivity of the results to the assumptions is also investigated. The effect of some covariates on all responses are investigated simultaneously.     

纳什均衡策略的极大熵估计方法

给出了策略熵的定义,论证了最大策略熵是纳什均衡的充分必要条件,并探讨了运用熵极大化准则来估计博弈参与者的混合策略的方法,得到了与传统方法相同的纳什均衡解,这表明纳什均衡策略是既定的收益约束条件的最大熵,为纳什均衡提供了基于信息论的解释,同时也为求解纳什均衡提供了一种极大熵估计方法,算例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Modelling growth and decline in lung function in Duchenne's muscular dystrophy with an augmented linear mixed effects model

Summary.  Longitudinal modelling of lung function in Duchenne's muscular dystrophy is complicated by a mixture of both growth and decline in lung function within each subject, an unknown point of separation between these phases and significant heterogeneity between individual trajectories. Linear mixed effects models can be used, assuming a single changepoint for all cases; however, this assumption may be incorrect. The paper describes an extension of linear mixed effects modelling in which random changepoints are integrated into the model as parameters and estimated by using a stochastic EM algorithm. We find that use of this 'mixture modelling' approach improves the fit significantly.     

从万比洛夫看前苏联当代戏剧的继承与创新

从万比洛夫的戏剧追寻前苏联戏剧的继承与创新的发展轨迹，论述万比洛夫如何以他与众不同的艺术审美方式刻画当代人物的性格、探索当代人的内心世界、塑造当代人的形象。他以自己独特的方式为前苏联当代剧坛带来了新的人物、新的发现、新的气象。这既得益于他对传统俄国戏剧学的继承，又体现了前苏联戏剧家在内容与形式上的开拓与创新。这种继承与创新正是前苏联戏剧依旧生机勃勃的根源与土壤。