A new estimator of Kullback–Leibler information and its application in goodness of fit tests*

We propose here a general statistic for the goodness of fit test of statistical distributions. The proposed statistic is constructed based on an estimate of Kullback–Leibler information. The proposed test is consistent and the limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived. Then, the established results are used to introduce goodness of fit tests for the normal, exponential, Laplace and Weibull distributions. A simulation study is carried out for examining the power of the proposed test and to compare it with those of some existing procedures. Finally, some illustrative examples are presented and analysed, and concluding comments are made.     

Checking validity of monotone domain mean estimators

Estimates of population characteristics such as domain means are often expected to follow monotonicity assumptions. Recently, a method to adaptively pool neighbouring domains was proposed, which ensures that the resulting domain mean estimates follow monotone constraints. The method leads to asymptotically valid estimation and inference, and can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency, in comparison with unconstrained domain estimators. However, assuming incorrect shape constraints may lead to biased estimators. Here, we develop the Cone Information Criterion for Survey Data as a diagnostic method to measure monotonicity departures on population domain means. We show that the criterion leads to a consistent methodology that makes an asymptotically correct decision choosing between unconstrained and constrained domain mean estimators. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 315–331; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

Cytometry inference through adaptive atomic deconvolution

In this paper, we consider a statistical estimation problem known as atomic deconvolution. Introduced in reliability, this model has a direct application when considering biological data produced by flow cytometers. From a statistical point of view, we aim at inferring the percentage of cells expressing the selected molecule and the probability distribution function associated with its fluorescence emission. We propose here an adaptive estimation procedure based on a previous deconvolution procedure introduced by Es, Gugushvili, and Spreij [(2008), ‘Deconvolution for an atomic distribution’, Electronic Journal of Statistics, 2, 265–297] and Gugushvili, Es, and Spreij [(2011), ‘Deconvolution for an atomic distribution: rates of convergence’, Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 23, 1003–1029]. For both estimating the mixing parameter and the mixing density automatically, we use the Lepskii method based on the optimal choice of a bandwidth using a bias-variance decomposition. We then derive some convergence rates that are shown to be minimax optimal (up to some log terms) in Sobolev classes. Finally, we apply our algorithm on the simulated and real biological data.     

Agency and fatalism in older Appalachian women’s information seeking about gynecological cancer

Researchers consider older women in rural Appalachia to have low levels of agency and high levels of fatalism regarding decision making about cancer treatment. Using the life course perspective, we examined older women’s agency with information seeking about gynecological cancer. Semistructured interviews with 20 White women living in central Appalachia revealed four trajectories: Surrendering Control, Accepting Death, Self-Care, and Advocacy, each with its own forms of agency. Some women experienced personal transformation, increased self-efficacy, and a passion for community empowerment. Fatalism was not understood apart from placing trust in medical expertise. We implore researchers to further explore rural expressions of agency.     

信息分析与预测产业化的法律环境分析

信息分析与预测产业化从产品商品化开始,这是一个庞大的系统工程。其商品化引发了一系列产业连带效应,促进其在服务方式、服务内容、管理体制等方面迅速与市场接轨,并整体向产业化进军。依据我国国情与国际惯例,必须吸收其它部门的立法经验与成果,建立整套完善的有中国特色的信息法律体系。     

我国电子化政府建设面临问题及对策

"电子化政府"的建设能够提高政府的决策理性和公共政策的品质,提高社会参与性和政府效率,对于服务型政府的建设具有重要的意义。     

信息载体演变与编辑出版活动的历史关系

信息载体的演变过程可分为四个时期:甲骨时期、简帛时期、纸质时期、电子时期。中国的编辑活动从有文字记录的文献产生就已经开始了。甲骨时期的编辑活动主要是从事文献材料的收集、分类编序,使其便于收藏和流传;简帛时期是中国编辑业务的奠基时期,中国历史上出现了书籍编辑活动;纸质时期编辑工作得到了很大的发展,在社会上逐渐形成一种专门的职业,而且其分工也越来越细,出现了不同专业的编辑业务;电子时期为编辑业务的内容和形式又开辟了新的领域。信息载体的演变与社会对信息存储、交流及传承需求之间是辩证关系。编辑活动的历史表明,社会物质生产方式的进步为信息载体演变提供了物质基础,而信息载体的演变决定着编辑活动的发展,反之,编辑活动的需求又加快了信息载体演变的进程。中国的编辑活动经历了收藏编辑、著述编辑、出版编辑和电子编辑四个阶段。     

DESIGN OF DIGITAL DEMOCRACIES: Performances of citizenship, gender and IT

The point of departure for this article is several Swedish IT policies that articulate goals for further development of the welfare state, which demand and enable active citizenship as well as enrolment of IT in the performance of this active citizenship. This article also examines the performance of active citizenship in a variety of sociotechnical arenas where people and technology coexist. Does the notion of active citizenship turn out a number of performances when translated into materialized technologies, such as Internet portals and web-based services? The authors juxtapose the policies with a construction of agencies in the story of citizens' design. In the last section, the discussions taking place in the parliament of things are summarized and related to the problematizations of citizenship, gender and IT.     

Pre-decisional information acquisition: Why do we pay too much for information? Brief report

People tend to acquire more information while making their decisions than a rational and risk-neutral benchmark would predict. We conduct a carefully designed experiment to derive five plausible reasons for pre-decision information overpurchasing. The results show that overpurchasing of information can be almost entirely explained by systematic information processing errors (misestimation or incorrect Bayesian updating), possibly caused by biased intuitive decision processes. Other factors, such as overoptimism about the validity of the new information, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and curiosity about (irrelevant) information, play at most a minor role. Our results imply that information overacquisitions are mainly driven by the overestimation of the usefulness of additional information.