黑河流域人口承载力预测分析

人口承载力的研究对象是由若干个内部关系错综复杂、相互之间联系紧密的子系统所组成的“自然-经济-社会”复合巨系统,本文运用系统动力学建立复合模型仿真模拟预测黑河流域人口承载力状况．并建立黑河流域人口承载力的预警指标体系。复合模型预测数据显示,黑河流域人口承载力呈超载状态．而预警目标值Z=0．979〈1,说明该区没有实现持续发展,乃“磊、乙三个指标小于1,说明黑河流域生态环境和固定资产投资占比是影响黑河流域发展的主要因素。     

上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单的路径和措施

目前,在中国(上海)自贸试验区的各项实施制度中,"负面清单"制度是其中重要的一项,也将是未来自贸区可复制、可推广的一项关键制度。对此,可借鉴《美国双边投资协议2012年范本》,将上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单,向全国推广。     

The embeddedness of organizational performance: Multiple Membership Multiple Classification Models for the analysis of multilevel networks

We present a Multiple Membership Multiple Classification (MMMC) model for analysing variation in the performance of organizational sub-units embedded in a multilevel network. The model postulates that the performance of organizational sub-units varies across network levels defined in terms of: (i) direct relations between organizational sub-units; (ii) relations between organizations containing the sub-units, and (iii) cross-level relations between sub-units and organizations. We demonstrate the empirical merits of the model in an analysis of inter-hospital patient mobility within a regional community of health care organizations. In the empirical case study we develop, organizational sub-units are departments of emergency medicine (EDs) located within hospitals (organizations). Networks within and across levels are delineated in terms of patient transfer relations between EDs (lower-level, emergency transfers), hospitals (higher-level, elective transfers), and between EDs and hospitals (cross-level, non-emergency transfers). Our main analytical objective is to examine the association of these interdependent and partially nested levels of action with variation in waiting time among EDs – one of the most commonly adopted and accepted measures of ED performance. We find evidence that variation in ED waiting time is associated with various components of the multilevel network in which the EDs are embedded. Before allowing for various characteristics of EDs and the hospitals in which they are located, we find, for the null models, that most of the network variation is at the hospital level. After adding these characteristics to the model, we find that hospital capacity and ED uncertainty are significantly associated with ED waiting time. We also find that the overall variation in ED waiting time is reduced to less than a half of its estimated value from the null models, and that a greater share of the residual network variation for these models is at the ED level and cross level, rather than the hospital level. This suggests that the covariates explain some of the network variation, and shift the relative share of residual variation away from hospital networks. We discuss further extensions to the model for more general analyses of multilevel network dependencies in variables of interest for the lower level nodes of these social structures.     

Assessing reporting patterns of child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church using discontinuities in model parameter timeseries

Prior to 2002, little was known about sexual abuse within the Catholic Church. After the Boston Globe broke the story about John Geoghan - a priest in the Boston Archdiocese who was accused of abusing numerous children, convicted of one count of indecent assault, and eventually murdered in prison - the Church had many questions to answer. To this end, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) commissioned John Jay College of Criminal Justice to research the nature and scope, as well as the causes and context of child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church.This research analyzes the data from the John Jay studies using a new quantitative technique, capable of adjusting for distortions introduced by delays in abuse reporting. By isolating discontinuities in model parameter timeseries, we determine changes in reporting patterns occurred during the period 1982-1988. A posteriori to the analysis, we provide some possible explanations for the changes in abuse reporting associated with the change-point. While the scope of this paper is limited to presenting a new methodological approach within the frame of a particular case study, the techniques are more broadly applicable in settings where reporting lag is manifested.     

中国式财政分权的宏观经济绩效——基于限制型VAR模型的经验分析

本文从中央政府与地方政府行为角度构建了中国式分权与宏观经济绩效之间的关联框架,指出中国式分权体制下的地方政府竞争行为构成了中国经济增长以及周期性过热的主导力量。由于中国不同省份的自然历史、地理位置以及发展政策差异极大,即使是同样的分权程度也可能产生不同的经济绩效与激励效果,这也就使得面板数据模型回归结论对其设定形式非常敏感。因此,本文采用受限VAR模型来实证分析中国式财政分权对于经济增长率和通货膨胀率的作用效应,结论证实了本文的理论预期。     

基于语言规划观的澳大利亚语言政策模型构建及启示

从语言作为问题、语言作为权利、语言作为资源三个角度考察,澳大利亚百年来的语言政策可划分为四个时期,即放任化时期、同化时期、多元化时期和优先化时期。在全面分析影响澳大利亚制定语言政策的基本规划观念的基础上,我们建立了一个基于语言规划观的,能够反映澳大利亚语言政策演变情况的澳大利亚语言政策模型。这个模型对分析中国或其他国家的语言政策也有一定价值。     

认知框架下的借代现象及其语篇功能探究

同隐喻一样,借代也是一种重要的思维方式和认知工具.然而,长期以来,借代研究仍然拘泥于修辞范畴,其功能得不到充分体现.本文从认知角度出发,在引入理想化认知模型(ICM)的基础上对借代的工作机制进行重新探讨和认识,同时对其在语篇连贯和衔接方面所发挥的重要作用也进行了初步研究.     

总体镜下的中国模式

随着＂华盛顿共识＂的式微,＂中国模式＂正日益兴起。当前,理论界热议中的＂中国模式＂尚处于一种能指的狂欢状态。从方法论上来看,分析还原论的方法堵塞了认知＂中国模式＂的道路,这种方法表征的是思维的初级阶段。打破目前僵局的唯一路径,就是要彻底变革思维方式,用马克思的方法——总体性的方法研究马克思主义中国化进程中的事物——＂中国模式＂,这种方法的基本运思理路是面向总体,维护总体与获得总体。惟此,＂中国模式＂方能走向澄明之境。     

“现代化”之后的东亚农业和农村社会——日本、韩国和台湾地区的案例及其历史意蕴

日本、韩国和台湾地区的农业和农村通常被看作中国大陆农业和农村的样板。但是,以粮食大量依赖进口,农村的空洞化、老龄化和劳动力不足,以及与"新娘短缺"相伴的"外籍新娘"的涌入为代表,这三个国家和地区的粮食和人口的再生产都处于难以持续的状态,"现代化"之后的农业和农村实际上都处于严重的危机之中。这种状况与其具有高度竞争力的工业和拥挤的城市形成鲜明对照,它是"东亚模式"或"东亚资本主义"的一种必然结局,也对中国大陆农业和农村的未来演变趋势提出了警示。     

集团公司战略风险管理的理论探讨

本文对集团公司战略管理过程中产生战略风险的机制从公司整体运行的角度进行研究,提出了公司战略风险管理的系统化理论模型,并从公司的环境、资源、能力和公司主题战略四个方面分析了战略风险产生的风险机理。并提出了环境和资源对公司战略主题目标的实现的影响及产生风险的机制。