哪一种适度规模？——适度规模经营的社会学解释

适度规模是一个最优化的状态,但它并没有统一的模式,从不同的价值立场出发就有不同的目标函数和最优化结果,所以,有一个“哪一种适度规模”的问题。文章从社会学的角度阐释适度规模的形成逻辑,分别从农业、农民、村集体和政府四种不同的角度分析了适度规模经营发展的逻辑。其中,农业的适度规模比较纯粹却容易引发社会政治风险;农民的适度规模比较灵活却未必可以持续;村集体与地方政府都很积极,但中央政府的态度却是模糊的。作为不同的适度规模模式的折衷与平衡,家庭经营范围内的规模化发展将成为一种最具有生命力的适度规模模式。     

Does Dividing the Range by Four Provide an Accurate Estimate of a Standard Deviation in Family Science Research? A Teaching Editorial

Occasionally, scientific reports have omitted information on standard deviations, making estimates of effect sizes very difficult to impossible. In such situations, several scholars have recommended obtaining an estimate of the standard deviation of distributions by dividing the range of the distribution (highest value minus lowest value) by four. However, there appears to be little evidence to confirm the validity of this approach. Articles from 2012 to 2015 in the journal Marriage & Family Review were surveyed to find instances where demographic variables (age, education, duration of relationship, number of children) were reported with both standard deviations and ranges. Ratios between range and standard deviations were calculated by several rules of thumb or more complex formulas and compared with the actual ratios obtained. Results indicated that dividing by five in general provided a more accurate estimate of actual standard deviations but accuracy in predicting the true ratio between range and standard deviation was substantially related to the position of the mean score within the range of scores with larger divisors needed as the mean approached either the minimum or the maximum values of the demographic variable (skew). Other recent formulae for estimating the standard deviation were also evaluated, but the skew-based approach appeared to be more accurate than the others. However, further investigation in other samples is needed because the skew-based approach was derived from observation of the data here, which might not replicate in different sets of data.     

Large deviation for negatively dependent random variables under sublinear expectation

Abstract

In this article, first we give the definition of negatively dependent sequence of random variables under sublinear expectation then we establish large deviation principle for this kind of sequence. Moreover, we obtain the upper bound of moderate deviation principle.     

Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations

An important objective of empirical research on treatment response is to provide decision makers with information useful in choosing treatments. This paper studies minimax‐regret treatment choice using the sample data generated by a classical randomized experiment. Consider a utilitarian social planner who must choose among the feasible statistical treatment rules, these being functions that map the sample data and observed covariates of population members into a treatment allocation. If the planner knew the population distribution of treatment response, the optimal treatment rule would maximize mean welfare conditional on all observed covariates. The appropriate use of covariate information is a more subtle matter when only sample data on treatment response are available. I consider the class of conditional empirical success rules; that is, rules assigning persons to treatments that yield the best experimental outcomes conditional on alternative subsets of the observed covariates. I derive a closed‐form bound on the maximum regret of any such rule. Comparison of the bounds for rules that condition on smaller and larger subsets of the covariates yields sufficient sample sizes for productive use of covariate information. When the available sample size exceeds the sufficiency boundary, a planner can be certain that conditioning treatment choice on more covariates is preferable (in terms of minimax regret) to conditioning on fewer covariates.     

Precise large deviations of aggregate claim amount in a dependent renewal risk model

In this paper, we consider a dependent risk model, in which the claim sizes are ofdependence structure, their inter-arrival times are independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.), and the claim size and its corresponding inter-arrival time satisfy a certain dependence structure described via the conditional distribution of the inter-arrival time given the subsequent claim size being large. We obtain the asymptotics of the lower and upper bounds of precise large deviations for the aggregate amount of claims, which holds uniformly for all x in an infinite interval of t.     

Large and moderate deviations for modified Engel series

The modified Engel series of real numbers introduced by Rényi (1962 Rényi, A. (1962). A new approach to the theory of Engel’s series. Ann. Univ. Sci. Budapest. Eötvös Sect. Math. 5:25–32. [Google Scholar]) is a simple modification of Engel series, and they have the same classical limit theorems, such as the law of large numbers, central limit theorem, and law of the iterated logarithm. In this paper, we studied the large and moderate deviations for modified Engel series, which indicate that the large deviations for modified Engel series and Engel series are different.     

Moderate deviations for the total population arising from a nearly unstable sub-critical Galton-Watson process with immigration

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the moderate deviation of the nearly unstable sub-critical Galton-Waston process with immigration for the centered total population arising. We discuss the main influence factors for the form of moderate deviation in different stochastic processes. Moreover, we compute the exact rate function in every different situation of MDP.     

Two-dimensional Kolmogorov-type goodness-of-fit tests based on characterisations and their asymptotic efficiencies

In this paper, new two-dimensional goodness-of-fit tests are proposed. They are of supremum type and are based on two different types of characterisations. The first type are those that involve functional equations that the distribution function satisfies, while the second type uses independence of some statistics. The asymptotics of the statistics is studied and Bahadur efficiencies of the tests against some close alternatives are calculated. In the process, a theorem on large deviations of Kolmogorov-type statistics has been extended to the multidimensional case.     

Large and moderate deviations in testing time inhomogeneous diffusions

This paper studies hypothesis testing in time inhomogeneous diffusion processes. With the help of large and moderate deviations for the log-likelihood ratio process, we give the negative regions and obtain the decay rates of the error probabilities. Moreover, we apply our results to hypothesis testing in α‐Wiener bridge.     

从经典马克思主义到西方马克思主义

经典马克思主义哲学可以有不同解释 ,可以用不同名称来表示 ,其本质之点是把现实生活和实践的观点当作整个哲学的根本观点。恩格斯和列宁在哲学上关注的问题与马克思有所不同 ,但他们的根本观点是一致的。在马克思主义哲学的发展中出现了对其根本原则的偏离现象 ,导致国际共产主义运动遭到挫折 ,西方马克思主义的形成与此相关