巨灾情景下我国政府不间断运行的关键职能探析

基于我国政府四大基本职能，以巨灾发生后需要政府有效组织救灾和维护基本社会秩序为依据，构建了巨灾情景下政府不间断运行的具体职能；并以此为基础，以职能的重要性、性能缺失造成后果的严重性、临界时间判断依据，进一步划分巨灾情景下的政府关键职能，并利用层次分析法确定政府关键职能的优先顺序。     

Theory‐of‐mind during childhood: Investigating syntactic and executive contributions

Both syntax and Executive Functions (EF) are involved in Theory‐of‐Mind (ToM) but their contributory roles have mainly been studied separately. Moreover, researchers have mostly administered False Belief (FB) tasks while they may not be representative of all ToM abilities. Studies of adults give valuable information regarding whether syntax and EF are useful for ToM reasoning (i.e., Reasoning account), however, only the study of children brings direct evidence in favor of ToM emergence (i.e., Emergence account). Also, because the ToM tasks used often entail verbal and executive demands, the links observed could mostly result from such confounds (i.e., Expression account). We evaluated ToM, syntactic and EF abilities in 126 children (3‐11 y.o.) using a set of ToM tasks with minimal verbal and executive demands. Our goals were to assess (1) the hierarchical contribution of syntax and EF to ToM, (2) whether results previously obtained for FB tasks are representative of ToM in general, (3) whether the ToM‐syntax and ToM‐EF links are constant (i.e., Reasoning account) or decrease during development (i.e., Emergence accounts). Results of stepwise regression analyses showed a predominant role of syntax over EF to predict ToM abilities. The comparison of results for ToM and FB tasks showed that FB is not always representative of ToM. Finally, there was no moderating effect of age on the syntax‐ToM or EF‐ToM relations, thus suggestive of the Reasoning account rather than the Emergence account.     

Inferential statistics on the dynamic system model with time-dependent failure-rate

This study focuses on the classical and Bayesian analysis of a k-components load-sharing parallel system in which components have time-dependent failure rates. In the classical set up, the maximum likelihood estimates of the load-share parameters with their standard errors (SEs) are obtained. (1?γ) 100% simultaneous and two bootstrap confidence intervals for the parameters and system reliability and hazard functions have been constructed. Further, on recognizing the fact that life-testing experiments are very time consuming, the parameters involved in the failure time distribution of the system are expected to follow some random variations. Therefore, Bayes estimates along with their posterior SEs of the parameters and system reliability and hazard functions are obtained by assuming gamma and Jeffrey's priors of the unknown parameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler has been used to obtain Bayes estimates and highest posterior density credible intervals.     

高校档案馆：性质、功能、管理体制

高校档案馆与机关档案室和国家档案馆有诸多差异,它是高等学校内部独立的档案事务管理机构,是内部性与独立性共存的矛盾统一体。高校档案馆的功能分为校内功能与公共功能两个大类,校内功能主要表现为记忆历史、服务教学科研、资政资治三个方面,而公共功能主要体现为高校档案原件的凭证依据和高校档案信息资源的开发服务。高校档案馆的体制是教育行政部门分级主管与档案行政部门业务指导、监督的有机结合。     

民族团结教育中社会心态的调节与生成

在民族团结教育过程中,社会心态通过调节＂自我的心理状态＂与＂其他人的心理状态＂的关系,调节＂主我＂与＂客我＂的关系,调节个体与群体的关系,调节心态各个成分的关系,生成自我与他人结合的心态,＂主我＂与＂客我＂结合的心态,仪式与非仪式结合的心态,知情意相统一的心态,发挥了四大重要作用,形成了自我对民族团结教育的正确反应与正确态度,最大化地增强了民族团结教育的效果。     

解析《鲁豫有约》电视谈话节目中的语码转换现象

语码转换指说话者在同一言语交际过程中使用两种或多种语言或语言变体的现象。它是一种社会文化现象,是语言接触的结果。以《鲁豫有约》电视访谈节目中的中英语码转换现象为语料,分析其在电视访谈节目中的语言特点,包括其语法句法结构、语用功能和交际意图。     

发挥政府在农村经济合作组织发展过程中的职能作用

以农民专业合作社、农民专业协会为主要形式的新型农民合作经济组织快速发展,成为促进农村经济发展、深化农村经济改革的创新经营体制。本文通过对黑龙江省农村合作组织发展状况的研究,探讨农业合作组织发展中存在的问题,从政府职能的角度提出对策与建议。     

Goodness‐of‐Fit Tests for Bivariate and Multivariate Skew‐Normal Distributions

Abstract. Goodness‐of‐fit tests are proposed for the skew‐normal law in arbitrary dimension. In the bivariate case the proposed tests utilize the fact that the moment‐generating function of the skew‐normal variable is quite simple and satisfies a partial differential equation of the first order. This differential equation is estimated from the sample and the test statistic is constructed as an L ₂ ‐type distance measure incorporating this estimate. Extension of the procedure to dimension greater than two is suggested whereas an effective bootstrap procedure is used to study the behaviour of the new method with real and simulated data.     

On batch queueing systems: A combinatorial approach

We consider batch queueing systems M/M^H/1$M/M^H/1$ and M^H/M/1$M^H/M/1$ with catastrophes. The transient probability functions of these queueing systems are obtained by a Lattice Path Combinatorics approach that utilizes randomization and dual processes. Steady state distributions are also determined. Generalization to systems having batches of different sizes are discussed.     

Data-driven sensitivity analysis to detect missing data mechanism with applications to structural equation modelling

Missing data are a common problem in almost all areas of empirical research. Ignoring the missing data mechanism, especially when data are missing not at random (MNAR), can result in biased and/or inefficient inference. Because MNAR mechanism is not verifiable based on the observed data, sensitivity analysis is often used to assess it. Current sensitivity analysis methods primarily assume a model for the response mechanism in conjunction with a measurement model and examine sensitivity to missing data mechanism via the parameters of the response model. Recently, Jamshidian and Mata (Post-modelling sensitivity analysis to detect the effect of missing data mechanism, Multivariate Behav. Res. 43 (2008), pp. 432–452) introduced a new method of sensitivity analysis that does not require the difficult task of modelling the missing data mechanism. In this method, a single measurement model is fitted to all of the data and to a sub-sample of the data. Discrepancy in the parameter estimates obtained from the the two data sets is used as a measure of sensitivity to missing data mechanism. Jamshidian and Mata describe their method mainly in the context of detecting data that are missing completely at random (MCAR). They used a bootstrap type method, that relies on heuristic input from the researcher, to test for the discrepancy of the parameter estimates. Instead of using bootstrap, the current article obtains confidence interval for parameter differences on two samples based on an asymptotic approximation. Because it does not use bootstrap, the developed procedure avoids likely convergence problems with the bootstrap methods. It does not require heuristic input from the researcher and can be readily implemented in statistical software. The article also discusses methods of obtaining sub-samples that may be used to test missing at random in addition to MCAR. An application of the developed procedure to a real data set, from the first wave of an ongoing longitudinal study on aging, is presented. Simulation studies are performed as well, using two methods of missing data generation, which show promise for the proposed sensitivity method. One method of missing data generation is also new and interesting in its own right.