Optimal Designs for 2 k Choice Experiments

Abstract

In this article we establish the choice sets in the D-optimal design for a choice experiment for testing main effects and for testing main effects and two-factor interactions, when there are k attributes, each with two levels, for choice set size m. We also give a method to construct optimal and near-optimal designs with small numbers of choice sets.     

Optimal design for discrete choice experiments

In this paper we derive locally optimal designs for discrete choice experiments. As in Kanninen (2002) we consider a multinomial logistic model, which contains various qualitative attributes as well as a quantitative one, which may range over a sufficiently large interval. The derived optimal designs improve upon those given in the literature, but have the feature that every choice set contains alternatives, which coincide in all but the quantitative attributes. The multinomial logistic model will then lead to a response behavior, which is apparently unrealistic.     

Estimation of principal points for a multivariate binary distribution using a log-linear model

This article proposes a method for estimating principal points for a multivariate binary distribution, assuming a log-linear model for the distribution. Through numerical simulation studies, the proposed parametric estimation method using a log-linear model is compared with a nonparametric estimation method.     

An Elementary Introduction to Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multinomial Models: Birch's Theorem and the Delta Method

A fairly complete introduction to the large sample theory of parametric multinomial models, suitable for a second-year graduate course in categorical data analysis, can be based on Birch's theorem (1964) and the delta method (Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland 1975). I present an elementary derivation of a version of Birch's theorem using the implicit function theorem from advanced calculus, which allows the presentation to be relatively self-contained. The use of the delta method in deriving asymptotic distributions is illustrated by Rao's (1973) result on the distribution of standardized residuals, which complements the presentation in Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland. The asymptotic theory is illustrated by two examples.     

Testing Supremacy or Inferiority of Multinomial Cell Probabilities with Application to Biting Preferences of Loggerhead Marine Turtles

We propose exact tests for uniform superiority or uniform inferiority of a multinomial cell probability. We extend the approach to testing supremacy or inferiority in multivariate settings. We also show how to perform superiority or inferiority tests in presence of covariates, and discuss the different interpretations of the proposed tests. The tests are illustrated on an original data set on biting behavior of loggerhead marine turtles.     

Multivariate Generalized Distributions of Order k

Abstract

The study of multivariate distributions of order k, two of which are the multivariate negative binomial of order k and the multinomial of the same order, was introduced in Philippou et al. (Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L., Tripsiannis, G. A. (1988 Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L. and Tripsiannis, G. A. 1988. Multivariate distributions of order k. Statistics and Probability Letters, 7(3): 207–216.  [Google Scholar]). Multivariate distributions of order k. Statistics and Probability Letters 7(3):207–216.), and Philippou et al. (Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L., Tripsiannis, G. A. (1990 Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L. and Tripsiannis, G. A. 1990. Multivariate distributions of order k, part II. Statistics and Probability Letters, 10(1): 29–35.  [Google Scholar]). Multivariate distributions of order k, part II. Statistics and Probability Letters 10(1):29–35.). Recently, an order k (or cluster) generalized negative binomial distribution and a multivariate negative binomial distribution were derived in Sen and Jain (Sen, K., Jain, R. (1996 Sen, K. and Jain, R. 1996. “Cluster generalized negative binomial distribution”. In Probability Models and Statistics Medhi Festschrift, A. J., on the Occasion of his 70th Birthday Edited by: Borthakur, A. C. 227–241. New Delhi: New Age International Publishers.  [Google Scholar]). Cluster generalized negative binomial distribution. In: Borthakur et al. A. C., Eds.; Probability Models and Statistics Medhi Festschrift, A. J., on the Occasion of his 70th Birthday. New Age International Publishers: New Delhi, 227–241.) and Sen and Jain (Sen, K., Jain, R. (1997 Sen, K. and Jain, R. 1997. A multivariate generalized Polya-Eggenberger probability model-first passage approach. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 26: 871–884. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A multivariate generalized Polya-Eggenberger probability model-first passage approach. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 26:871–884.), respectively. In this paper, all four distributions are generalized to a multivariate generalized negative binomial distribution of order k by means of an appropriate sampling scheme and a first passage event. This new distribution includes as special cases several known and new multivariate distributions of order k, and gives rise in the limit to multivariate generalized logarithmic, Poisson and Borel-Tanner distributions of the same order. Applications are indicated.     

Dynamic pricing in the presence of consumer inertia

Customer behavior modeling has gained increasing attention in the context of dynamic pricing. As an important behavior phenomenon, consumer inertia refers to consumers' inherent tendency of purchase procrastination and may induce consumers to wait even when immediate purchase is optimal from an objective perspective. This paper studies a dynamic pricing problem for a monopolist firm selling perishable goods to consumers who may be influenced by inertia. We formulate this problem using the finite-horizon dynamic programming approach and derive the optimal dynamic pricing policy. We demonstrate that consumer inertia produces negative effects on firms' expected revenues and optimal prices, which are monotonically decreasing in both inertia depth and breadth. Through numerical illustrations, we further show that the marginal effects of inertia depth on optimal prices and expected revenues are decreasing, whereas the marginal effects of inertia breadth are increasing. Finally we propose some suggestions for firms to influence the level of consumer inertia.     

Response shrinkage estimation in multinomial logit models

A shrinkage estimation method for multinomial logit models is developed. The proposed method is based on shrinking the responses for each category towards the underlying probabilities. The estimator is also used in combination with Pregibon's resistant fitting. The resulting estimator can also be used to control the over-estimation of Pregibon's resistant estimator. The proposed method handles not only the problem of separation in multinomial logit models but estimates also exist when the number of covariates is large relative to the sample size. Estimates exist even when the MLE does not exist. Estimates can be easily computed with all commonly used statistical packages supporting the fitting procedures with weights. Estimates are compared with the usual MLE and Firth's bias reduction technique in a simulation study and an application.     

Optimal stated preference choice experiments when all choice sets contain a specific option

Stated preference choice experiments are routinely used in many areas from marketing to medicine. While results on the optimal choice sets to present for the forced choice setting have been determined in a variety of situations, no results have appeared to date on the optimal choice sets to use when either all choice sets are to contain a common base alternative or when all choice sets contain a “none of these” option. These problems are considered in this paper.