Multiple comparisons of exponential location parameters with a control based on doubly censored sample under heteroscedasticity

In this article, a one-sample procedure for multiple comparisons of exponential location parameters with a control under heteroscedasticity is proposed. The observations are obtained by doubly censored samples. A one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals are used to perform such multiple comparisons. Statistical tables of critical values and an example of comparing four drugs in treating leukemia are provided.     

中国决策情境下的多源流模型及其优化研究

作为当今公共政策研究领域最炙手可热的理论模型之一,约翰·金登的多源流分析理论业已得到国内外学者的广泛应用与认可。在对该模型的相关内容进行简单铺陈后,通过辨析国内外不同的政策主体参与逻辑,进一步厘清了我国公共决策的独有特征。研究重点是在整合提炼西方既有修正思路的基础上,沿袭模型的模糊性假设,结合我国具体实践案例,对多源流模型进行优化与补充。研究表明,中国决策情境下的多源流模型优化主要有提高源流间的融合性、政治源流的核心化、焦点事件的独立化以及特殊情况下的临时决策等四种路径,四种优化与补充路径的有机结合将为进一步提升模型适用性提供帮助。     

A multiple warm standby δ-shock system with a repairman having multiple vacations

In this article, a warm standby n-unit system is studied. The system is operational as long as there is one unit normal. The unit online, which has a lifetime distribution governed by a phase-type distribution, is also attacked by a shock from some external causes. Assume that shocks arrive according to a Poisson process. Whenever an interarrival time of shock is less than a threshold, the unit online fails. The lifetimes of the units in warm standby is exponentially distributed. A repairman who can take multiple vacations repairs the failed units based on the “first-in-first-out” rule. The repair times and the vacation times of repairman are governed by different phase-type distributions. For this system, the Markov process governing the system is constructed. The system is studied in a transient and stationary regime; the availability, the reliability, the rates of occurrence of the different types of failures, and the working probability of the repairman are calculated. A numerical application is performed to illustrate the calculations.     

西北回族"复合型经济"与宏观地缘构造的理论分析

本文以历史与现实、微观与宏观、区域与整体贯通一致的系统视角,尝试构建西北回族的整体性理论,提出"复合型经济"模式,并从"三块高原-两种经济类型"与"茶马互市"地理布点相吻合的关系,以及从"弱商业联系"到"强商业联系"的演进过程,解释了回族经济的特点与原因,揭示现象背后复杂深刻的规律,并对回族生存过程中与外部发生的重要关系问题提出新的解说.     

Diagnostics of multiple group influential observations for logistic regression models

In this paper, two new multiple influential observation detection methods, GCD.GSPR and mCD*, are introduced for logistic regression. The proposed diagnostic measures are compared with the generalized difference in fits (GDFFITS) and the generalized squared difference in beta (GSDFBETA), which are multiple influential diagnostics. The simulation study is conducted with one, two and five independent variable logistic regression models. The performance of the diagnostic measures is examined for a single contaminated independent variable for each model and in the case where all the independent variables are contaminated with certain contamination rates and intensity. In addition, the performance of the diagnostic measures is compared in terms of the correct identification rate and swamping rate via a frequently referred to data set in the literature.     

Multiple hypothesis tests based On conditional differences in means

Many hypothesis tests are univariate tests and cannot cope with multiple hypothesis without an auxiliary procedure as e. g. the Bonferroni-Holm-procedure. At the same time, there is an urgent need for testing multiple hypothesis due to the very simple existing methods as the Bonferroni-correction or the Bonferroni-Holm-procedure, which suffers from a very small local significance level to detect statistical inferences or the drawback that logical and statistical dependencies among the test statistics are not used, whereby its detection is NP-hard. In honour of this occasion, we present a multiple hypothesis test for i.i.d. random variables based on conditional differences in means, which is capable to cope with multiple hypothesis and does not suffer on such drawbacks as the Bonferroni-correction or the Bonferroni-Holm-procedure. Thereby, the computation time can be neglected.     

A Factor-Adjusted Multiple Testing Procedure With Application to Mutual Fund Selection

In this article, we propose a factor-adjusted multiple testing (FAT) procedure based on factor-adjusted p-values in a linear factor model involving some observable and unobservable factors, for the purpose of selecting skilled funds in empirical finance. The factor-adjusted p-values were obtained after extracting the latent common factors by the principal component method. Under some mild conditions, the false discovery proportion can be consistently estimated even if the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be weakly correlated across units. Furthermore, by appropriately setting a sequence of threshold values approaching zero, the proposed FAT procedure enjoys model selection consistency. Extensive simulation studies and a real data analysis for selecting skilled funds in the U.S. financial market are presented to illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

基于多元智能理论的信息化教学设计

加德纳提出的多元智能理论给传统教育观念带来了巨大的冲击,也赋予了信息化教学设计新的依据和新的视角.基于多元智能理论,从目标导向、内容构建、环境创设、评价设计四个方面探讨信息化教学设计的基本理念,并对多元智能理论指导下的信息化教学设计模式进行分析.     

从强制收容到无偿救助——基于多源流理论的政策分析

政策科学是一门与社会实际紧密联系的学科,它随着人们对社会实际的认识的不断深入而发展。在孙志刚事件发生后,我们发现传统的政策过程阶段论无法很好地解释这一事件的发生以及从强制收容到无偿救助的转变过程。文章试图运用多源流理论来解释这一过程,从而提供一种不同于传统视角但同样合理的解释。     

论意象与联想力、想象力之互动——以“多”、“二”、“一（0）”螺旋结构切入作考察

联想力与想象力是思维力的两大翅膀,藉以让思维力遨游于客观与主观时空,以通贯心、物,上撤其本、下撤其末,将真实世界、伦理世界与艺术世界融通为一,以呈现真、善、美的圆融境域.而意与象即相当于心与物,为人类思维活动的原动力,自然和联想力与想象力关系密切.大体说来,就在联想力与想象力的作用下,意象得以形成、表现、组织与统合;其中意象之形成、表现,关涉到偏于主观的"联想力与想象力"所形成之形象思维;意象之组织,关涉到偏于客观的"联想力与想象力"所形成之逻辑思维;而意象之统合,则关涉到合客观与主观为一的"联想力与想象力"所形成之综合思维.由此可知意象与联想力、想象力,在思维力的大力牵合下,不但三位一体,而且使它们形成"意象←→联想力、想象力"的"多"、"二"、"一(0)"螺旋结构.