“多元素养作文”初探

"多元素养作文"是在对作文教学现状反思以及对作文、作文教学再认识的基础上提出的作文课程设想.它是由"一向三维四元"构成的;其基本理念有目标理念、训练理念、资源理念;基本特征是训练的系统性、资源的开放性、形式的自主探究、过程的体验性、操作的互动性;它的训练体例由作文境域、个性体悟、路径辨析、创新呈现、反思交流组成.     

Quantitative refinements for comparisons of institutional performance

In the context of the data and issues discussed by Goldstein and Spiegelhalter, we suggest refinements which can be used by decision makers when confronted with ranking problems associated with 'league tables'. Two ranking criteria are defined and their performance illustrated for one of the studies reported by Goldstein and Spiegelhalter.     

Issues in the design and analysis of therapeutic trials in human immunodeficiency virus infection

The first randomized trial of antiviral therapy in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease included 282 patients with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) or AIDS-related complex and was stopped in 1986 after an average follow-up of 4 months because of a substantial reduction in mortality in the group who received zidovudine (AZT). The era of anti-HIV treatment had begun. This paper discusses some of the difficulties which have emerged over the subsequent 10 years as new anti-HIV drugs have been developed requiring evaluation in clinical trials. The trials in which the British Medical Research Council has played a major role (the Concorde, Alpha and Delta trials) and some of the key trials conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) (the ACTG 019 and ACTG 175 trials) and the Community Programs for Clinical Research on AIDS (CPCRA) (the CPCRA 007 trial) in the US will be used to illustrate some of the issues faced by clinical trialists and governmental regulatory agencies in the evaluation of therapies for a disease which, in spite of advances in therapy, still has a high mortality.     

协同视域下当代中国环境邻避冲突治理模式探讨

近年来,随着城市化进程的不断加快,作为城市化进程的衍生物与副产品的环境邻避冲突也愈演愈烈,已然成为影响中国环境治理绩效的主要因素。通过对国内典型环境邻避冲突事件进行梳理,总结出当前中国环境邻避冲突治理实践中“一核多元”协同模式的应用情景,梳理出当前我国环境邻避冲突的演化趋势与治理现状,发现治理环节尚存在的诸多不足,在此基础上提出从转变理念、提升能力、完善机制等三方面着手,对未来中国环境邻避冲突治理模式进行优化。     

Interactive Multiple Objective Decision Support for Sales Force Sizing and Deployment*

An interactive decision aid is introduced for the deployment of two sales resources: salespeople and sales support staff. The aid consists of a normative sales resource allocation model with five objectives and an interactive multiple objective programming solution procedure. The specific decision problem addressed involves the assignment of salespeople and sales support people to customer accounts and the allocation of the time they spend on these accounts. The authors contribute to the existing sales resource modeling literature by dealing with the deployment of two sales resources and interactively solving this problem with respect to five short-run and long-run objectives of the firm. This approach differs from existing sales force modeling efforts in which the solution is found noninteractively by optimizing a single sales resource model with respect to a single objective, often short-run sales. An application of the decision aid to the deployment problem of an industrial sales force manager is presented. Furthermore, useful extensions of the basic sales resource allocation model are discussed.     

Finding Jack Michael’s Footprints in the Sand

Jack Michael left a legacy of fine discriminations among technical terms, a careful parsing of theoretical concepts, and a variety of behavioral interpretations of complex behavioral phenomena. When pushing into relatively unfamiliar territory in areas such as “memory,” automatic reinforcement, multiple control, and additivity of response strength, I have been surprised and delighted to find evidence that Jack had once explored the same topics, in the same way, and had come to the same conclusions toward which I was groping.     

CPI编制及公布的国际比较

 本文在参考国际组织所提出的关于CPI的规范的基础上,同时参考了一些国家在统计实践中的做法,对中国CPI的编制及公布进行了国际比较,分析了所存在的差距,并提出了几点结论及建议。     

Partial covariate adjusted regression

Covariate adjusted regression (CAR) is a recently proposed adjustment method for regression analysis where both the response and predictors are not directly observed [?entürk, D., Müller, H.G., 2005. Covariate adjusted regression. Biometrika 92, 75–89]. The available data have been distorted by unknown functions of an observable confounding covariate. CAR provides consistent estimators for the coefficients of the regression between the variables of interest, adjusted for the confounder. We develop a broader class of partial covariate adjusted regression (PCAR) models to accommodate both distorted and undistorted (adjusted/unadjusted) predictors. The PCAR model allows for unadjusted predictors, such as age, gender and demographic variables, which are common in the analysis of biomedical and epidemiological data. The available estimation and inference procedures for CAR are shown to be invalid for the proposed PCAR model. We propose new estimators and develop new inference tools for the more general PCAR setting. In particular, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators and propose consistent estimators of their asymptotic variances. Finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated using simulation studies and the method is also illustrated with a Pima Indians diabetes data set.     

Residual plots for linear regression models with censored outcome data: A refined method for visualizing residual uncertainty

Residual plots are a standard tool for assessing model fit. When some outcome data are censored, standard residual plots become less appropriate. Here, we develop a new procedure for producing residual plots for linear regression models where some or all of the outcome data are censored. We implement two approaches for incorporating parameter uncertainty. We illustrate our methodology by examining the model fit for an analysis of bacterial load data from a trial for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Simulated datasets show that the method can be used when the outcome data consist of a variety of types of censoring.     

Permutation tests for homogeneity based on some characterizations

In this work, non parametric tests are proposed for testing the homogeneity of two or more populations. The tests are based on recently obtained characterizations. The test procedure is based on the permutation bootstrap technique. For the two-sample case the new tests are compared with permutation tests based on the empirical characteristic function and some other tests. The comparison is fulfilled via a Monte Carlo simulation.