Multivariate Stochastic Volatility: A Review

The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation, and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely, (i) asymmetric models, (ii) factor models, (iii) time-varying correlation models, and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, the Cholesky decomposition, and the Wishart autoregressive process. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods of diagnostic checking and model comparison are also reviewed.     

经济计量方法上的突破——解读2003年度诺贝尔经济学奖

2003年度诺贝尔经济学奖由罗伯特·恩格尔和克莱夫·格兰杰共同获得.恩格尔因提出的自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型可以处理经济时间序列的时变波动性而获奖,格兰杰因提出的协整模型可以处理经济时间序列的非平稳性而获奖.     

Multivariate Bayesian variable selection and prediction

The multivariate regression model is considered with p regressors. A latent vector with p binary entries serves to identify one of two types of regression coefficients: those close to 0 and those not. Specializing our general distributional setting to the linear model with Gaussian errors and using natural conjugate prior distributions, we derive the marginal posterior distribution of the binary latent vector. Fast algorithms aid its direct computation, and in high dimensions these are supplemented by a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to sampling from the known posterior distribution. Problems with hundreds of regressor variables become quite feasible. We give a simple method of assigning the hyperparameters of the prior distribution. The posterior predictive distribution is derived and the approach illustrated on compositional analysis of data involving three sugars with 160 near infrared absorbances as regressors.     

Bayesian finite mixtures with an unknown number of components: The allocation sampler

A new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian analysis of finite mixture distributions with an unknown number of components is presented. The sampler is characterized by a state space consisting only of the number of components and the latent allocation variables. Its main advantage is that it can be used, with minimal changes, for mixtures of components from any parametric family, under the assumption that the component parameters can be integrated out of the model analytically. Artificial and real data sets are used to illustrate the method and mixtures of univariate and of multivariate normals are explicitly considered. The problem of label switching, when parameter inference is of interest, is addressed in a post-processing stage.     

On an adaptive transformation–retransformation estimate of multivariate location

An affine equivariant estimate of multivariate location based on an adaptive transformation and retransformation approach is studied. The work is primarily motivated by earlier work on different versions of the multivariate median and their properties. We explore an issue related to efficiency and equivariance that was originally raised by Bickel and subsequently investigated by Brown and Hettmansperger. Our estimate has better asymptotic performance than the vector of co-ordinatewise medians when the variables are substantially correlated. The finite sample performance of the estimate is investigated by using Monte Carlo simulations. Some examples are presented to demonstrate the effect of the adaptive transformation–retransformation strategy in the construction of multivariate location estimates for real data.     

On implementation of a test for Kronecker product covariance structure for multivariate repeated measures data

Under the assumption of multivariate normality the likelihood ratio test is derived to test a hypothesis for Kronecker product structure on a covariance matrix in the context of multivariate repeated measures data. Although the proposed hypothesis testing can be computationally performed by indirect use of Proc Mixed of SAS, the Proc Mixed algorithm often fails to converge. We provide an alternative algorithm. The algorithm is illustrated with two real data sets. A simulation study is also conducted for the purpose of sample size consideration.     

Nonparametric estimation of spatial segregation in a multivariate point process: bovine tuberculosis in Cornwall, UK

Summary.  The paper is motivated by a problem in veterinary epidemiology, in which spatially referenced breakdowns of bovine tuberculosis are classified according to their genotype and year of occurrence. We develop a nonparametric method for addressing spatial segregation in the resulting multivariate spatial point process, with associated Monte Carlo tests for the null hypothesis that different genotypes are randomly intermingled and no temporal changes in spatial segregation. Our spatial segregation estimates use a kernel regression method with bandwidth selected by a multivariate cross-validated likelihood criterion.     

Block unimodality for multivariate Bayesian robustness

Summary The development of Bayesian robustness has been growing in the last decade. The theory has extensively dealt with the univariate parameter case. Among the vast amount of proposals in the literature, only a few of them have a straightforward extension to the multivariate case. In this paper we consider the multidimensional version of the class of ε-contaminated prior distributions, with unimodal contaminations. In the multivariate case there is not a unique definition of unimodality and one's choice must be based on statistical ground. Here we propose the use of the block unimodal distributions, which proved to be very suitable for modelling situations where the coordinates of the parameter ϑ are deemed, a priori, weakly correlated.     

Censored regression with the multistate accelerated sojourn times model

Many disease processes are characterized by two or more successive health states, and it is often of interest and importance to assess state-specific covariate effects. However, with incomplete follow-up data such inference has not been satisfactorily addressed in the literature. We model the logarithm-transformed sojourn time in each state as linearly related to the covariates; however, neither the distributional form of the error term nor the dependence structure of the states needs to be specified. We propose a regression procedure to accommodate incomplete follow-up data. Asymptotic theory is presented, along with some tools for goodness-of-fit diagnostics. Simulation studies show that the proposal is reliable for practical use. We illustrate it by application to a cancer clinical trial.