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61.
In this paper, we develop a methodology for the dynamic Bayesian analysis of generalized odds ratios in contingency tables. It is a standard practice to assume a normal distribution for the random effects in the dynamic system equations. Nevertheless, the normality assumption may be unrealistic in some applications and hence the validity of inferences can be dubious. Therefore, we assume a multivariate skew-normal distribution for the error terms in the system equation at each step. Moreover, we introduce a moving average approach to elicit the hyperparameters. Both simulated data and real data are analyzed to illustrate the application of this methodology. 相似文献
62.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(4):177-194
Formulating the model first in continuous time, we have developed a state space approach to the problem of testing for threshold-type nonlinearity when the data are irregularly spaced. 相似文献
63.
《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2012,41(13-14):2545-2569
We study the general linear model (GLM) with doubly exchangeable distributed error for m observed random variables. The doubly exchangeable general linear model (DEGLM) arises when the m-dimensional error vectors are “doubly exchangeable,” jointly normally distributed, which is a much weaker assumption than the independent and identically distributed error vectors as in the case of GLM or classical GLM (CGLM). We estimate the parameters in the model and also find their distributions. We show that the tests of intercept and slope are possible in DEGLM as a particular case using parametric bootstrap as well as multivariate Satterthwaite approximation. 相似文献
64.
《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2012,41(13-14):2305-2320
We consider shrinkage and preliminary test estimation strategies for the matrix of regression parameters in multivariate multiple regression model in the presence of a natural linear constraint. We suggest a shrinkage and preliminary test estimation strategies for the parameter matrix. The goal of this article is to critically examine the relative performances of these estimators in the direction of the subspace and candidate subspace restricted type estimators. Our analytical and numerical results show that the proposed shrinkage and preliminary test estimators perform better than the benchmark estimator under candidate subspace and beyond. The methods are also applied on a real data set for illustrative purposes. 相似文献
65.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(3):628-643
This article deals with the construction of an X? control chart using the Bayesian perspective. We obtain new control limits for the X? chart for exponentially distributed data-generating processes through the sequential use of Bayes’ theorem and credible intervals. Construction of the control chart is illustrated using a simulated data example. The performance of the proposed, standard, tolerance interval, exponential cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponential exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits are examined and compared via a Monte Carlo simulation study. The proposed Bayesian control limits are found to perform better than standard, tolerance interval, exponential EWMA and exponential CUSUM control limits for exponentially distributed processes. 相似文献
66.
The components of a reliability system subjected to a common random environment usually have dependent lifetimes. This paper studies the stochastic properties of such a system with lifetimes of the components following multivariate frailty models and multivariate mixed proportional reversed hazard rate (PRHR) models, respectively. Through doing stochastic comparison, we devote to throwing a new light on how the random environment affects the number of working components of a reliability system and on assessing the performance of a k-out-of-n system. 相似文献
67.
Evaluation of trace evidence in the form of multivariate data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
C. G. G. Aitken D. Lucy 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2004,53(1):109-122
Summary. The evaluation of measurements on characteristics of trace evidence found at a crime scene and on a suspect is an important part of forensic science. Five methods of assessment for the value of the evidence for multivariate data are described. Two are based on significance tests and three on the evaluation of likelihood ratios. The likelihood ratio which compares the probability of the measurements on the evidence assuming a common source for the crime scene and suspect evidence with the probability of the measurements on the evidence assuming different sources for the crime scene and suspect evidence is a well-documented measure of the value of the evidence. One of the likelihood ratio approaches transforms the data to a univariate projection based on the first principal component. The other two versions of the likelihood ratio for multivariate data account for correlation among the variables and for two levels of variation: that between sources and that within sources. One version assumes that between-source variability is modelled by a multivariate normal distribution; the other version models the variability with a multivariate kernel density estimate. Results are compared from the analysis of measurements on the elemental composition of glass. 相似文献
68.
P. J. Brown M. Vannucci T. Fearn 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2002,64(3):519-536
Summary. When a number of distinct models contend for use in prediction, the choice of a single model can offer rather unstable predictions. In regression, stochastic search variable selection with Bayesian model averaging offers a cure for this robustness issue but at the expense of requiring very many predictors. Here we look at Bayes model averaging incorporating variable selection for prediction. This offers similar mean-square errors of prediction but with a vastly reduced predictor space. This can greatly aid the interpretation of the model. It also reduces the cost if measured variables have costs. The development here uses decision theory in the context of the multivariate general linear model. In passing, this reduced predictor space Bayes model averaging is contrasted with single-model approximations. A fast algorithm for updating regressions in the Markov chain Monte Carlo searches for posterior inference is developed, allowing many more variables than observations to be contemplated. We discuss the merits of absolute rather than proportionate shrinkage in regression, especially when there are more variables than observations. The methodology is illustrated on a set of spectroscopic data used for measuring the amounts of different sugars in an aqueous solution. 相似文献
69.
The paper gives an asymptotic distribution of a test statistic for detecting a change in a mean of random vectors with dependent components. The studied test statistic has a form of a maximum of a square Euclidean norms of vectors with components being standardized partial cumulative sums of deviations from means. The limit distribution was obtained using a result of Piterbarg [1994. High deviations for multidimensional stationary Gaussian processes with independent components. In: Zolotarev, V.M. (Ed.), Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, pp. 197–210]. 相似文献
70.
The main goal in small area estimation is to use models to ‘borrow strength’ from the ensemble because the direct estimates of small area parameters are generally unreliable. However, model-based estimates from the small areas do not usually match the value of the single estimate for the large area. Benchmarking is done by applying a constraint, internally or externally, to ensure that the ‘total’ of the small areas matches the ‘grand total’. This is particularly useful because it is difficult to check model assumptions owing to the sparseness of the data. We use a Bayesian nested error regression model, which incorporates unit-level covariates and sampling weights, to develop a method to internally benchmark the finite population means of small areas. We use two examples to illustrate our method. We also perform a simulation study to further assess the properties of our method. 相似文献