从社会文化习俗看母语干涉

母语干涉是应用语言学中一项重要的内容，也是语言和外语教学过程中的一大难题。社会文化习俗在很多方面潜移默化地对中国的英语学习者起着负面影响。使他们在写作、翻译、交际等领域不经意地犯错误。让英语国家的社会文化习俗走进课堂，是在此领域避免母语干涉行之有效的办法。     

“语言是一种符号系统”说疑议

文章简要概括了索绪尔“语言是一种符号系统”说,认为索氏那种研究语言而“不管历时态”的学说,就认识论而言乃是机械唯物主义的,就方法论而言是形而上学的,落实到实践上则是行不通的。文中立足汉语研究之现实,以典型事例印证了索氏之说的误导作用。进而对索氏理论的基石“能指和所指的联系是任意的”说进行验证,发现它的提出主要是出于理论建构的需要,但同时也不可避免地暴露了索氏理论的臆断性。文章的结论是:“语言是一种符号系统”说的观念是浮泛的,它对汉语研究的负面影响是严重的。     

Test of parameter changes in a class of observation-driven models for count time series

Abstract

This paper investigates the parameter-change tests for a class of observation-driven models for count time series. We propose two cumulative sum (CUSUM) test procedures for detection of changes in model parameters. Under regularity conditions, the asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are established. In addition, the integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (INGARCH) processes with conditional negative binomial distributions are investigated. The developed techniques are examined through simulation studies and also are illustrated using an empirical example.     

Modeling spatial overdispersion via the generalized Waring point process

Modeling spatial overdispersion requires point process models with finite‐dimensional distributions that are overdisperse relative to the Poisson distribution. Fitting such models usually heavily relies on the properties of stationarity, ergodicity, and orderliness. In addition, although processes based on negative binomial finite‐dimensional distributions have been widely considered, they typically fail to simultaneously satisfy the three required properties for fitting. Indeed, it has been conjectured by Diggle and Milne that no negative binomial model can satisfy all three properties. In light of this, we change perspective and construct a new process based on a different overdisperse count model, namely, the generalized Waring (GW) distribution. While comparably tractable and flexible to negative binomial processes, the GW process is shown to possess all required properties and additionally span the negative binomial and Poisson processes as limiting cases. In this sense, the GW process provides an approximate resolution to the conundrum highlighted by Diggle and Milne.     

Coverage‐adjusted Confidence Intervals for a Binomial Proportion

We consider the classic problem of interval estimation of a proportion p based on binomial sampling. The ‘exact’ Clopper–Pearson confidence interval for p is known to be unnecessarily conservative. We propose coverage adjustments of the Clopper–Pearson interval that incorporate prior or posterior beliefs into the interval. Using heatmap‐type plots for comparing confidence intervals, we show that the coverage‐adjusted intervals have satisfying coverage and shorter expected lengths than competing intervals found in the literature.     

Baker- Lin-Huang Type Bivariate Distributions Based on Order Statistics

Baker (2008 Baker, R. (2008). An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals. J. Multivariate Anal. 99: 23122327.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced a new class of bivariate distributions based on distributions of order statistics from two independent samples of size n. Lin and Huang (2010 Lin, G.D., Huang, J.S. (2010). A note on the maximum correlation for Baker’s bivariate distributions with fixed marginals. J. Multivariate Anal. 101: 22272233.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) discovered an important property of Baker’s distribution and showed that the Pearson’s correlation coefficient for this distribution converges to maximum attainable value, i.e., the correlation coefficient of the Fréchet upper bound, as n increases to infinity. Bairamov and Bayramoglu (2013 Bairamov, I., Bayramoglu, K. (2013). From Huang-Kotz distribution to Baker’s distribution. J. Multivariate Anal. 113: 106115.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) investigated a new class of bivariate distributions constructed by using Baker’s model and distributions of order statistics from dependent random variables, allowing higher correlation than that of Baker’s distribution. In this article, a new class of Baker’s type bivariate distributions with high correlation are constructed based on distributions of order statistics by using an arbitrary continuous copula instead of the product copula.     

Confidence interval estimation for negative binomial group distribution

Negative binomial group distribution was proposed in the literature which was motivated by inverse sampling when considering group inspection: products are inspected group by group, and the number of non-conforming items of a group is recorded only until the inspection of the whole group is finished. The non-conforming probability p of the population is thus the parameter of interest. In this paper, the confidence interval construction for this parameter is investigated. The common normal approximation and exact method are applied. To overcome the drawbacks of these commonly used methods, a composite method that is based on the confidence intervals of the negative binomial distribution is proposed, which benefits from the relationship between negative binomial distribution and negative binomial group distribution. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performances of our methods. A real data example is also presented to illustrate the application of our method.     

Efficient regression modeling for correlated and overdispersed count data

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to propose an efficient estimation procedure in a marginal mean regression model for longitudinal count data and to develop a hypothesis test for detecting the presence of overdispersion. We extend the matrix expansion idea of quadratic inference functions to the negative binomial regression framework that entails accommodating both the within-subject correlation and overdispersion issue. Theoretical and numerical results show that the proposed procedure yields a more efficient estimator asymptotically than the one ignoring either the within-subject correlation or overdispersion. When the overdispersion is absent in data, the proposed method might hinder the estimation efficiency in practice, yet the Poisson regression based regression model is fitted to the data sufficiently well. Therefore, we construct the hypothesis test that recommends an appropriate model for the analysis of the correlated count data. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed test can identify the effective model consistently. The proposed procedure is also applied to a transportation safety study and recommends the proposed negative binomial regression model.     

Management sampling for larvae of the colorado potato beetle

Summary Untreated plot of ‘Kennebec’ and ‘Superior’ potatoes were sampled for Colorado potato beetle (CPB) at L'Assomption, Quebec, in 1982, 1986 and 1987. Numbers of CPB larvae per stalk were counted on 74 occasions for sample sizes ranging from 50 to 200 stalks. Regression techniques were used to estimate the relationship between mean and cumulative proportion of stalks infected. These were used to set up binomial sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) sampling plans for pest management decision making with tally numbers (or tally thresholds, cutoff numbers) equal to 0,1,...10. A binomial scheme defined by tally number equal to 4 is proposed for general use, and corresponding plans are given, with estimated operating characteristic and average sample number curves.     

Really troubled girls: Gender differences in risky sexual behavior and its correlates in a sample of juvenile offenders

Despite numerous studies on the myriad of psychosocial factors that affect youthful offenders, research on gender differences with respect to risky sexual behavior are limited. Using data on juvenile offenders in a residential facility, we analyzed impact of gender on sexual behavior (N = 227). Girls reported higher likelihood of diagnosis with sexually transmitted diseases, and injecting drug use including heroin and cocaine than boys. Multivariate analysis indicated that number of sexual partners, childhood trauma, and services received from emergency shelter and psychiatric settings were associated with risky sexual behavior. Discouraging, abusive and dysfunctional home environment with little support from parents/caregivers, or teachers, priests/religious leaders appear to dispose youth to a life of risky sex, drugs and delinquency.