Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.     

榆林能源化工基地产业依存度分析

以2002年陕西省的投入产出表为依据,编制2002年榆林能源化工基地的投入产出表,对2002年榆林能源化工基地的产业依存度状况进行分析;结合2006年榆林统计年鉴编制出2005年榆林能源化工基地的投入产出表,分析2005年榆林能源化工基地的产业依存度状况并与2002年的进行比较。结果表明:能源化工产业各部门之间的依赖关系越来越紧密,各行业对自身的依赖程度在增加,尤其是煤炭开采的独立性增强,与其他产业的关系密切。     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

A critical look at Lo's modified R/S statistic

We report on an empirical investigation of the modified rescaled adjusted range or R/S statistic that was proposed by Lo, 1991. Econometrica 59, 1279–1313, as a test for long-range dependence with good robustness properties under ‘extra’ short-range dependence. In contrast to the classical R/S statistic that uses the standard deviation S to normalize the rescaled range R, Lo's modified R/S-statistic V_q is normalized by a modified standard deviation S_q which takes into account the covariances of the first q lags, so as to discount the influence of the short-range dependence structure that might be present in the data. Depending on the value of the resulting test-statistic V_q, the null hypothesis of no long-range dependence is either rejected or accepted. By performing Monte-Carlo simulations with ‘truly’ long-range- and short-range dependent time series, we study the behavior of V_q, as a function of q, and uncover a number of serious drawbacks to using Lo's method in practice. For example, we show that as the truncation lag q increases, the test statistic V_q has a strong bias toward accepting the null hypothesis (i.e., no long-range dependence), even in ideal situations of ‘purely’ long-range dependent data.     

Non-parametric estimation of the long-range dependence exponent for Gaussian processes

We consider a class of long-range-dependent Gaussian processes defined in a semiparametric framework. We propose a new estimator of the long-range dependence parameter, based on the integration of the periodogram in two windows. We show that it is asymptotically Gaussian and calculate the rate of convergence. We optimise parameters defining the window function for the minimum mean-square-error criterion. In a Monte-Carlo study, we compare the proposed estimator with previously studied estimators.     

比喻分类管见

本文针对大中学教坛上把比喻分为明喻、暗喻、借喻的“三分说”分类提出不同看法;认为应分为两大类：常式比喻和变式比喻,并着重分析了 常式比喻与变式比喻之间的联系及其“变”的规律     

Non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics

Non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) type offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and for flexible modelling of dependence structures. This paper develops this potential, drawing on and extending powerful results from probability theory for applications in statistical analysis. Their power is illustrated by a sustained application of OU processes within the context of finance and econometrics. We construct continuous time stochastic volatility models for financial assets where the volatility processes are superpositions of positive OU processes, and we study these models in relation to financial data and theory.     

A Copula‐Based Non‐parametric Measure of Regression Dependence

Abstract. This article presents a framework for comparing bivariate distributions according to their degree of regression dependence. We introduce the general concept of a regression dependence order (RDO). In addition, we define a new non‐parametric measure of regression dependence and study its properties. Besides being monotone in the new RDOs, the measure takes on its extreme values precisely at independence and almost sure functional dependence, respectively. A consistent non‐parametric estimator of the new measure is constructed and its asymptotic properties are investigated. Finally, the finite sample properties of the estimate are studied by means of a small simulation study.     

On LSE in regression model for long-range dependent random fields on spheres

We study the asymptotic behaviour of least squares estimators (LSE) in regression models for long-range dependent random fields observed on spheres. The LSE can be given as a weighted functional of long-range dependent random fields. It is known that in this scenario the limits can be non-Gaussian. We derive the limit distribution and the corresponding rate of convergence for the estimators. The results were obtained under rather general assumptions on the random fields. Simulation studies were conducted to support theoretical findings.