城市化水平预测方法研究——以BP神经网络模型的应用为例

经济因素相关分析法是城市化水平预测领域较常使用的方法之一。然而,由于经济发展与城市化发展水平之间相互关系的作用模式较为复杂,传统的预测方法在实际应用时往往难以取得较为理想的预测效果。本文拟运用BP神经网络模型在这一领域进行新的尝试。     

宏观经济分析思路刍议

从与国际学术界研究范式接轨的角度出发,本文对宏观经济分析的一般思路作了系统的讨论。本文主张,前提假设、逻辑推理和实证检验是现代经济分析方法的主要框架。任何规范的经济研究,必须首先推敲问题所处的经济环境,从而抽象出环境的主要特征,即研究过程受制于和受益于何种条件。经济学逻辑推理的范式基本上是数理的方式,实证检验则一般是应用计量经济学的方法。     

浅析高尔基《母亲》中的“母亲“形象

高尔基的《母亲》是对俄罗斯传统文学的继承和发展,作者所塑造的母亲形象是无产阶级革命者形象的代表。母亲在革命真理的熏陶下,由一名胆小懦弱、逆来顺受的社会底层妇女成长为一名勇敢坚定、不畏牺牲的无产阶级革命战士。母亲的成长历程证明了马克思主义在教育人、改造人方面的巨大作用。另外,作者也着力描写了一种崭新的人际关系——人与人之间平等的交往和影响。     

小品词-UP-语义的认知语言学分析

英语短语动词中使用频率最高的小品词是-UP-。传统认为它与英语习语中的介词和副词一样,其语义具有不可分析性。根据物象与背景理论中-UP-的意象图式,它的语义在短语动词中具有可分析性,其基本含义与事物从低级到高级或从低处到高处的移动相关,在短语动词中有13个义项,其中包括其概念隐喻变义,它们对短语动词的语义产生积极的影响。     

面向对象的钢筋混凝土梁数值模拟软件实现

探讨了用Visual C＋＋.NET开发面向对象的钢筋混凝土梁的数值模拟软件的实现方法，包括建立交互式CAD平台与在此平台上进行数值模拟的有限元分析的技术。     

The Economics of Public Beta Testing

A growing number of software firms now rely on public beta testing to improve the quality of their products before commercial release. While the benefits resulting from improved software reliability are well recognized, some important market‐related benefits have not been studied. Through word‐of‐mouth, public beta testers can accelerate the diffusion of a software product after its release. Additionally, because of network effects, public beta testers can increase users’ valuation of a product. In this study, we consider both reliability‐related and market‐related benefits, and develop models to determine the optimal number of public beta testers and the optimal duration of testing. Our analyses show that public beta testing can be profitable even if word‐of‐mouth and network effects are the only benefits. Furthermore, when both benefits are considered, there is significant “economies of scope”—the net profit increases at a faster rate when both word‐of‐mouth and network effects are significant than when only one benefit is present. Finally, our sensitivity analyses demonstrate that public beta testing remains highly valuable to software firms over a wide range of testing and market conditions. In particular, firms will realize greater profits when recruiting public beta testers who are interested in the software but unable to afford it.     

"电子化政府"四个关键过程的探讨

电子化政府已经成为信息革命背景下政府改革和发展的共同方向。本文认为,“电子化政府”是四个关键过程的有机组合和系统发展,是一项系统工程,即:电子化政府包括工作手段的电子化;政府信息传递管理的扁平化;政府管理行为方式的网络化;政府指导下的整个社会自组织和自管理发展。只有全面考虑这四个过程,才能使电子化政府的建设更加完善。     

网络文学特征简论

网络文学作为一种新的文学形式,给传统文学带来了冲击。网络文学的特性由其载体互联网的特性决定。网络文学与传统文学的明显区别在于其具有双向互动性。网络文学作品版权不易保护。网络期刊的诞生给传统纸质印刷期刊带来极大的挑战。网络期刊欣欣向荣,传统杂志举步维艰。网络的开放性和共享性促成网络文学创作的繁荣。     

探析网络对高校青年教师的心理影响

本文分析了处于社会全方位转型期 ,青年教师在社会中所处的特殊位置、环境和所担当的使命 ,以及他们在社会变革、转型中 ,特别是网络出现后所面临的心理压力。本文从正反两个方面分析了网络对高校青年教师的人际交往、自我发展、人格完善等方面的影响     

The Role of Task Uncertainty in IT Project Team Advice Networks

Advice seeking is often the most critical success factor in today's IT project teams. To understand how advice seekers are motivated, we integrate the antecedents of advice seeking—as defined by network theory (Granovetter, 1983)—into a cost/benefit model based on expectancy theory (Vroom, 1964). To contribute to the research on advice network formation, we integrate the role of task uncertainty—one of the defining characteristics of IT projects—into that research (Wallace & Keil, 2004). Based on a controlled quasi‐experiment, this study demonstrates that when task uncertainty is low, individuals with attractive personalities and similar demographics will be sought out for advice more frequently, regardless of their knowledge and resources (i.e., the benefits to the advice seekers). However, when task uncertainty is high, individuals with greater knowledge and access to resources are sought out more often in an advice network. These results provide clarity to prior research that has found mixed results concerning the effectiveness of the traditional antecedents to advice seeking (e.g., knowledge, power, and transactive memory) (e.g., Xu, Kim, & Kankanhalli, 2010a). In addition, project managers may choose to alter their team structure in order to optimize the advice network based on the anticipated level of IT project risk or task uncertainty.