全文获取类型
收费全文 | 9979篇 |
免费 | 178篇 |
国内免费 | 41篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 419篇 |
劳动科学 | 1篇 |
民族学 | 53篇 |
人口学 | 190篇 |
丛书文集 | 350篇 |
理论方法论 | 213篇 |
综合类 | 2499篇 |
社会学 | 427篇 |
统计学 | 6046篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 11篇 |
2023年 | 69篇 |
2022年 | 72篇 |
2021年 | 95篇 |
2020年 | 174篇 |
2019年 | 284篇 |
2018年 | 388篇 |
2017年 | 717篇 |
2016年 | 253篇 |
2015年 | 257篇 |
2014年 | 376篇 |
2013年 | 2777篇 |
2012年 | 779篇 |
2011年 | 379篇 |
2010年 | 302篇 |
2009年 | 336篇 |
2008年 | 320篇 |
2007年 | 335篇 |
2006年 | 300篇 |
2005年 | 290篇 |
2004年 | 254篇 |
2003年 | 230篇 |
2002年 | 210篇 |
2001年 | 197篇 |
2000年 | 167篇 |
1999年 | 89篇 |
1998年 | 79篇 |
1997年 | 56篇 |
1996年 | 50篇 |
1995年 | 44篇 |
1994年 | 29篇 |
1993年 | 32篇 |
1992年 | 34篇 |
1991年 | 26篇 |
1990年 | 29篇 |
1989年 | 25篇 |
1988年 | 17篇 |
1987年 | 17篇 |
1986年 | 8篇 |
1985年 | 11篇 |
1984年 | 15篇 |
1983年 | 15篇 |
1982年 | 7篇 |
1981年 | 7篇 |
1980年 | 9篇 |
1979年 | 6篇 |
1978年 | 6篇 |
1977年 | 6篇 |
1976年 | 4篇 |
1975年 | 5篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
81.
收费公路行业内部债务治理与外部减税降费均要求收费公路运营降本增效。为了探析收费公路运营效率水平及其空间分布格局,使用SBM模型测度了2014—2020年29个省份收费公路运营效率,进而采用泰尔指数和Moran's I指数分析了其时空分异特征。研究认为:收费公路运营存在着效率较低且在时间维度上没有明显增长的趋势,在空间上存在发展不平衡问题,收费公路运营效率的区域差异主要来源于区域内部差异,区域内差异的贡献率平均达到81.578%; 收费公路运营效率具有空间正相关性,呈现出显著的“高-高”集聚和“低-低”集聚的空间特征,运营效率较高的省份对相邻省份具有正向溢出效应。研究表明,各省针对相邻省份或最近省份的运营效率现状,结合自身的比较优势探索产业升级或者物流发展模式,充分发挥相邻省份的经济发展和产业集聚对本省收费公路运营的辐射带动作用,推动建立起收费公路跨区域合作运营机制。 相似文献
82.
83.
A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Martin Crowder 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》1998,25(1):53-67
A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature 相似文献
84.
Approximation of a density by another density is considered in the case of different dimensionalities of the distributions. The results have been derived by inverting expansions of characteristic functions with the help of matrix techniques. The approximations obtained are all functions of cumulant differences and derivatives of the approximating density. The multivariate Edgeworth expansion follows from the results as a special case. Furthermore, the density functions of the trace and eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix are approximated by the multivariate normal density and a numerical example is given 相似文献
85.
A K -sample testing problem is studied for multivariate counting processes with time-dependent frailty. Asymptotic distributions and efficiency of a class of non-parametric test statistics are established for certain local alternatives. The concept of efficiency is to show that for every non-parametric test in this class, there is a parametric submodel for which the optimal test has the same asymptotic power as the non-parametric one. The theory is applied to analyse a diabetic retinopathy study data set. A simulation study is also presented to illustrate the theory 相似文献
86.
LetX1,X2, ..., be real-valued random variables forming a strictly stationary sequence, and satisfying the basic requirement of being either pairwise positively quadrant dependent or pairwise negatively quadrant dependent. LetF^ be the marginal distribution function of theXips, which is estimated by the empirical distribution functionFn and also by a smooth kernel-type estimateFn, by means of the segmentX1, ...,Xn. These estimates are compared on the basis of their mean squared errors (MSE). The main results of this paper are the following. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal bandwidth (in the MSE sense) is determined, and is found to be the same as that in the independent identically distributed case. It is also shown thatn MSE(Fn(t)) andnMSE (F^n(t)) tend to the same constant, asn→∞ so that one can not discriminate be tween the two estimates on the basis of the MSE. Next, ifi(n) = min {k∈{1, 2, ...}; MSE (Fk(t)) ≤ MSE (Fn(t))}, then it is proved thati(n)/n tends to 1, asn→∞. Thus, once again, one can not choose one estimate over the other in terms of their asymptotic relative efficiency. If, however, the squared bias ofF^n(t) tends to 0 sufficiently fast, or equivalently, the bandwidthhn satisfies the requirement thatnh3n→ 0, asn→∞, it is shown that, for a suitable choice of the kernel, (i(n) ?n)/(nhn) tends to a positive number, asn→∞ It follows that the deficiency ofFn(t) with respect toF^n(t),i(n) ?n, is substantial, and, actually, tends to ∞, asn→∞. In terms of deficiency, the smooth estimateF^n(t) is preferable to the empirical distribution functionFn(t) 相似文献
87.
The posterior distribution of the likelihood is used to interpret the evidential meaning of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and Akaike's information criterion when comparing point null hypotheses with composite alternatives. Asymptotic arguments lead to simple re-calibrations of these criteria in terms of posterior tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio. (Prior) Bayes factors cannot be calibrated in this way as they are model-specific. 相似文献
88.
中国股市收益率分布函数研究 总被引:14,自引:6,他引:14
本文在考察了文献中描述股票收益率的各类分布函数的基础上,以稳定Paretian分布与t分布为备择,研究了沪、深股市各类综指收益率的分布函数的形式,并对分布函数的参数进行了估计。 相似文献
89.
On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. (4) on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. (4) The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. 4 than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables. 相似文献
90.
Estimation from Zero-Failure Data 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Robert T. Bailey 《Risk analysis》1997,17(3):375-380
When performing quantitative (or probabilistic) risk assessments, it is often the case that data for many of the potential events in question are sparse or nonexistent. Some of these events may be well-represented by the binomial probability distribution. In this paper, a model for predicting the binomial failure probability, P , from data that include no failures is examined. A review of the literature indicates that the use of this model is currently limited to risk analysis of energetic initiation in the explosives testing field. The basis for the model is discussed, and the behavior of the model relative to other models developed for the same purpose is investigated. It is found that the qualitative behavior of the model is very similar to that of the other models, and for larger values of n (the number of trials), the predicted P values varied by a factor of about eight among the five models examined. Analysis revealed that the estimator is nearly identical to the median of a Bayesian posterior distribution, derived using a uniform prior. An explanation of the application of the estimator in explosives testing is provided, and comments are offered regarding the use of the estimator versus other possible techniques. 相似文献