Controlling Access to Sick Leave Programmes: Practices of Physicians in the Netherlands

Policymakers in industrialized countries attempt to contain the costs of sick leave and disability schemes by limiting access to include medically proven cases only. However, a person's incapacity to work cannot be fully deduced by referring to his or her medical condition. It is the question whether using more restrictive eligibility criteria that focus on medical evidence actually reduces the number of benefit recipients and makes access to employee benefit arrangements fairer. This ethnographic study shows that physicians working in Dutch illness certification practices use alternative methods to restrict access to sick leave programmes. Doctors do not control their clients in a restrictive sense of the word. Rather, they exercise control over their clients by inciting them to internalize norms about being active and responsible. While we do not claim that this is good per se, we do contend that this control style may have some advantages over and above more restrictive control mechanisms. Elaborating on policy that supports this alternative notion of control, therefore, seems worthwhile.     

Machine Learning Vasicek Model Calibration with Gaussian Processes

In this article, we calibrate the Vasicek interest rate model under the risk neutral measure by learning the model parameters using Gaussian processes for machine learning regression. The calibration is done by maximizing the likelihood of zero coupon bond log prices, using mean and covariance functions computed analytically, as well as likelihood derivatives with respect to the parameters. The maximization method used is the conjugate gradients. The only prices needed for calibration are zero coupon bond prices and the parameters are directly obtained in the arbitrage free risk neutral measure.     

Construction and Nonparametric Testing of Orthogonal Arrays through Algebraic Strata and Inequivalent Permutation Matrices

In this article we use a new methodology, based on algebraic strata, to generate the class of all the orthogonal arrays of given size and strength. From this class we extract all the non isomorphic orthogonal arrays. Then, using all these non isomorphic orthogonal arrays, we suggest a method based on the inequivalent matrices permutations testing procedures Basso et al. (2004 Basso , D. , Evangelaras , H. , Koukouvinos , C. , Salmaso , L. ( 2004 ). Nonparametric testing for main effects on inequivalent designs. Proc. 7th Int. Workshop Model-Oriented Design Anal. Heeze, Netherlands, June 14–18 . [Google Scholar]) in order to obtain separate permutation tests for the effects in unreplicated mixed level fractional factorial designs. In order to validate the proposed method we perform a Monte Carlo simulation study and find out that the permutation tests appear to be a valid solution for testing effects, in particular when the usual normality assumptions cannot be justified.     

Parameter identification for the discretely observed geometric fractional Brownian motion

This paper deals with the problem of estimating all the unknown parameters of geometric fractional Brownian processes from discrete observations. The estimation procedure is built upon the marriage of the quadratic variation and the maximum likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are provided. Moveover, we compare our derived method with the approach proposed by Misiran et al. [Fractional Black-Scholes models: complete MLE with application to fractional option pricing. In International conference on optimization and control; Guiyang, China; 2010. p. 573–586.], namely the complete maximum likelihood estimation. Simulation studies confirm theoretical findings and illustrate that our methodology is efficient and reliable. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of Chinese financial market is also presented.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

Approximating hidden Gaussian Markov random fields

Summary.  Gaussian Markov random-field (GMRF) models are frequently used in a wide variety of applications. In most cases parts of the GMRF are observed through mutually independent data; hence the full conditional of the GMRF, a hidden GMRF (HGMRF), is of interest. We are concerned with the case where the likelihood is non-Gaussian, leading to non-Gaussian HGMRF models. Several researchers have constructed block sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes based on approximations of the HGMRF by a GMRF, using a second-order expansion of the log-density at or near the mode. This is possible as the GMRF approximation can be sampled exactly with a known normalizing constant. The Markov property of the GMRF approximation yields computational efficiency.The main contribution in the paper is to go beyond the GMRF approximation and to construct a class of non-Gaussian approximations which adapt automatically to the particular HGMRF that is under study. The accuracy can be tuned by intuitive parameters to nearly any precision. These non-Gaussian approximations share the same computational complexity as those which are based on GMRFs and can be sampled exactly with computable normalizing constants. We apply our approximations in spatial disease mapping and model-based geostatistical models with different likelihoods, obtain procedures for block updating and construct Metropolized independence samplers.     

A new per-field classification method using mixture discriminant analysis

In this study, a new per-field classification method is proposed for supervised classification of remotely sensed multispectral image data of an agricultural area using Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis (MDA). For the proposed per-field classification method, multivariate Gaussian mixture models constructed for control and test fields can have fixed or different number of components and each component can have different or common covariance matrix structure. The discrimination function and the decision rule of this method are established according to the average Bhattacharyya distance and the minimum values of the average Bhattacharyya distances, respectively. The proposed per-field classification method is analyzed for different structures of a covariance matrix with fixed and different number of components. Also, we classify the remotely sensed multispectral image data using the per-pixel classification method based on Gaussian MDA.     

Estimation of Correlation for Continuous Semimartingales

Abstract. In this study we are concerned with inference on the correlation parameter ρ of two Brownian motions, when only high‐frequency observations from two one‐dimensional continuous Itô semimartingales, driven by these particular Brownian motions, are available. Estimators for ρ are constructed in two situations: either when both components are observed (at the same time), or when only one component is observed and the other one represents its volatility process and thus has to be estimated from the data as well. In the first case it is shown that our estimator has the same asymptotic behaviour as the standard one for i.i.d. normal observations, whereas a feasible estimator can still be defined in the second framework, but with a slower rate of convergence.     

Robustness to non-normality and autocorrelation of individuals control charts

This paper studies the effects of non-normality and autocorrelation on the performances of various individuals control charts for monitoring the process mean and/or variance. The traditional Shewhart X chart and moving range (MR) chart are investigated as well as several types of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts and combinations of control charts involving these EWMA charts. It is shown that the combination of the X and MR charts will not detect small and moderate parameter shifts as fast as combinations involving the EWMA charts, and that the performana of the X and MR charts is very sensitive to the normality assumption. It is also shown that certain combinations of EWMA charts can be designed to be robust to non-normality and very effective at detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean and/or variance. Although autocorrelation can have a significant effect on the in-control performances of these combinations of EWMA charts, their relative out-of-control performances under independence are generally maintained for low to moderate levels of autocorrelation.     

Efficient designs based on orthogonal arrays of type I and type II for experiments using units ordered over time or space

For a wide variety of applications, experiments are based on units ordered over time or space. Models for these experiments generally may include one or more of: correlations, systematic trends, carryover effects and interference effects. Since the standard optimal block designs may not be efficient in these situations, orthogonal arrays of type I and type II, which were introduced in 1961 by C.R. Rao [Combinatorial arrangements analogous to orthogonal arrays, Sankhya A 23 (1961) 283–286], have been recently used to construct optimal and efficient designs for many of these experiments. Results in this area are unified and the salient features are outlined.