Developing a conceptual evaluation framework for gender equality interventions in research and innovation

In this article, we discuss the development of a conceptual evaluation framework to design and assess gender equality interventions and their effects in research and innovation. The conceptual framework presented herewith embraces the complexity, gender-sensitive and theory-based evaluation approaches ensuring that design and evaluation of gender equality interventions consider the complex systems that constitute the context in which the interventions operate. The evaluation framework offers a non-linear concept, where the notion of contribution - not attribution - to achieve impact is central to the integration of team, organizational and system factors in policy design and evaluation. The paper opens the “black box” to address the question of how and why a policy intervention works and in which context and discusses a systematic process on how to approach the interwoven linkages between input, implementation and effects in gender equality interventions in research and innovation, accounting for context sensitivity and methodological pluralism. The evaluation framework may serve as reference for researchers, evaluators, policymakers and other stakeholders in designing and assessing gender equality interventions, and in further developing their evidence, and theoretical and methodological base.     

非线性思维漫谈

线性思维与非线性思维是思维的两种表现形式。意识到非线性思维的存在并对它进行诠释,理清它与线性思维的不同,对非线性思维产生的生理基础,对在科学研究和文艺创作中的存在形式进行探讨,并指出了研究非线性思维的前景和意义。     

Comprehensive definitions of breakdown points for independent and dependent observations

Summary. We provide a new definition of breakdown in finite samples, with an extension to asymptotic breakdown. Previous definitions centre on defining a critical region for either the parameter or the objective function. If for a particular outlier configuration the critical region is entered, breakdown is said to occur. In contrast with the traditional approach, we leave the definition of the critical region implicit. Our proposal encompasses previous definitions of breakdown in linear and non-linear regression settings. In some cases, it leads to a different and more intuitive notion of breakdown than other procedures that are available. An important advantage of our new definition is that it also applies to models for dependent observations where current definitions of breakdown typically fail. We illustrate our suggestion by using examples from linear and non-linear regression, and time series.     

Missing time-dependent covariates in human immunodeficiency virus dynamic models

Summary. The study of human immunodeficiency virus dynamics is one of the most important areas in research into acquired immune deficiency syndrome in recent years. Non-linear mixed effects models have been proposed for modelling viral dynamic processes. A challenging problem in the modelling is to identify repeatedly measured (time-dependent), but possibly missing, immunologic or virologic markers (covariates) for viral dynamic parameters. For missing time-dependent covariates in non-linear mixed effects models, the commonly used complete-case, mean imputation and last value carried forward methods may give misleading results. We propose a three-step hierarchical multiple-imputation method, implemented by Gibbs sampling, which imputes the missing data at the individual level but can pool information across individuals. We compare various methods by Monte Carlo simulations and find that the multiple-imputation method proposed performs the best in terms of bias and mean-squared errors in the estimates of covariate coefficients. By applying the favoured multiple-imputation method to clinical data, we conclude that there is a negative correlation between the viral decay rate (a virological response parameter) and CD4 or CD8 cell counts during the treatment; this is counter-intuitive, but biologically interpretable on the basis of findings from other clinical studies. These results may have an important influence on decisions about treatment for acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients.     

解码《天使与魔鬼》的后现代创作技巧

本文对美国当代小说家丹.布朗的《天使与魔鬼》巧妙地利用了非线性叙述、多视角叙事等后现代描写方式。     

On the estimates of the parameters of the first order autoregressive process

Two methods of estimation for the parameters of an AR(1) process which are based on a non-linear least-squares approach are presented. On the basis of some simulation results they are compared with two maximum likelihood estimates and their relative merits are discussed.     

Supply chain optimisation and protocol environment (SCOPE) for rapid prototyping and analysis of complex supply chains

There is a strong need for modelling tools that allow decision makers to rapidly develop aggregate models of supply chains, including both material and information flow, that they can use to gain insights and assess alternative configurations. We present a prototype implementation of such a system and apply it to a simple supply chain for validation purposes, and to a real world case study from the consumer packaged goods industry.     

网络写作仍需注重写作思维的训练

网络写作作为一种新的写作方式已是不争的事实。正如纸张和印刷术的发明对写作思维产生的巨大推动一样，计算机和网络技术也将引起写作思维向更新更深的方向发展。网络写作者要想在网络中充分表情达意，那么，充分认识网络写作的非线性思维特征，注重多种写作思维的训练，仍显得十分必要。     

Semiparametric non-linear time series model selection

Summary.  Semiparametric time series regression is often used without checking its suitability, resulting in an unnecessarily complicated model. In practice, one may encounter computational difficulties caused by the curse of dimensionality. The paper suggests that to provide more precise predictions we need to choose the most significant regressors for both the parametric and the nonparametric time series components. We develop a novel cross-validation-based model selection procedure for the simultaneous choice of both the parametric and the nonparametric time series components, and we establish some asymptotic properties of the model selection procedure proposed. In addition, we demonstrate how to implement it by using both simulated and real examples. Our empirical studies show that the procedure works well.     

Wavelet processes and adaptive estimation of the evolutionary wavelet spectrum

This paper defines and studies a new class of non-stationary random processes constructed from discrete non-decimated wavelets which generalizes the Cramér (Fourier) representation of stationary time series. We define an evolutionary wavelet spectrum (EWS) which quantifies how process power varies locally over time and scale. We show how the EWS may be rigorously estimated by a smoothed wavelet periodogram and how both these quantities may be inverted to provide an estimable time-localized autocovariance. We illustrate our theory with a pedagogical example based on discrete non-decimated Haar wavelets and also a real medical time series example.